30 Questions: Washington Nationals

What can we reasonably expect from Stephen Strasburg this season?

Stephen Strasburg isn't the highest-ranked starting pitcher in fantasy baseball as we approach the 2012 season. He could, however, be the most important.

That may sound like hyperbole on the surface, but rest assured it isn't. You probably don't need reminding that the right-hander was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 draft and was regarded by many as the best pitching prospect of the past decade, and possibly even the past few decades.

To this point, we've essentially seen an extended trailer of the hard-throwing phenom's potential, with the majority of the feature presentation still behind the curtain. However, early indications are that the hype, as overwhelming as it was, was well-deserved.

Here's a quick rundown of some of the numbers Strasburg has produced in his 17 big league starts over the past two years and how he'd rank had he pitched enough innings to qualify.

• His 11.4 strikeouts-per-nine-innings rate is the best in baseball and nearly a full strikeout better than Brandon Morrow, who's posted a 10.5 K/9 over the past two seasons. No other starting pitcher who qualified posted a K/9 above 9.5.

• His 6.1 strikeout-to-walk ratio ranks third in baseball, behind Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. No other starter posted a 5.0 K/BB ratio over the past two years.

• His 2.54 ERA ranks second behind Halladay, who holds a 2.40 ERA over the last two seasons.

• His 0.98 WHIP ranks first, and he's the only starter to post a mark under 1.00. Lee was next with a WHIP of 1.02.

• Hitters made contact with just 74.2 percent of Strasburg's pitches that they swung at, the second-lowest percentage in baseball, according to Fangraphs.com. Francisco Liriano made batters swing-and-miss the most (73.1 percent).

• Hitters swung at 36.2 percent of Strasburg's pitches outside the strike zone, the highest percentage in the game. Dan Haren is next at 35.5 percent.

• His .207 batting average against is tied with Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander for the best mark in baseball over the last two campaigns.

• His average fastball velocity over the last two years sits at 96.9 mph, which is more than 1.5 mph better than Verlander, who is second with a 95.2 mph average.

Small sample size or not, it's not difficult to see that this kid is special.

One of the stories surrounding Strasburg this spring is that he's pitched relatively few innings (44.1, to be exact) since undergoing Tommy John surgery in August 2010. He made just five starts for the Washington Nationals last season in September and six minor league starts spanning four levels before that, so there's at least a small amount of uncertainty here from a health standpoint. That said, all offseason health reports were positive, and the fact he was able to return and pitch as well as he did last year -- 1.50 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and 12.0 K/BB ratio in 24 innings -- is a huge plus and an encouraging sign for Strasburg going forward. Yes, it's true it takes most hurlers recovering from that surgery some time to regain their pre-surgery command, and it's worth noting that Strasburg's average fastball velocity was down last year (96 mph) compared to 2010 (97.6 mph) and he didn't induce the same number of ground balls in 2011 (37.7 percent) compared to 2010 (47.8 percent). But those aren't major concerns at this point. Almost all pitchers carry at least some degree of health risk, and Strasburg is no different. However, because he'll be roughly 20 months removed from surgery when the season starts and has already overcome a big mental hurdle by returning successfully last year, there's little reason he should still be viewed on draft day as a significant health liability.

The real concern with Strasburg -- and the reason he's not ranked higher than No. 20 on ESPN's starting pitcher rankings -- is that the Nationals are expected to keep him on an innings limit in 2012. During the Nationals' spring training telecast on MLB Network on Monday, GM Mike Rizzo said that Strasburg could pitch as few as 140 innings or as many as 170 this year, depending on what he sees from the 23-year-old. Rizzo also noted that the team will "err on the side of caution" with the young right-hander.

The common thought, though, is that Strasburg's inning count will be around the 160 mark. Fellow Nats right-hander Jordan Zimmermann, who underwent Tommy John surgery in August 2009, was on a similar innings limit last season and was shut down in late August after reaching 161 1/3 innings. It stands to reason that the Nationals will handle Strasburg in a similar fashion in 2012. Rizzo also recently told the Washington Post that the team won't be adjusting the right-hander's schedule so he can pitch later in the season. Assuming the Nationals don't waver from this plan, they'll be without their ace if they reach the playoffs, which isn't at all inconceivable, especially with the expanded postseason.