MLB teams
Jayson Stark, ESPN Senior Writer 8y

Starting pitchers and interested teams to watch in Nashville

MLB

As the shockwaves of Zack Greinke's Powerball payout from the Arizona Diamondbacks ripple through his sport, here's today's final "Jeopardy" answer. (The category is "Winter Meetings.") Ready, contestants? The answer is:

"Two million pounds of ice statues. And four dozen free-agent starting pitchers."

OK, time's up. Now here's the correct question:

"What will the ever-industrious executives of baseball's 30 clubs be staring at when they arrive this weekend at the world's most sprawling winter meetings destination/biosphere, the Gaylord Opryland Hotel?"

Now, with all due respect to the majesty of two million pounds of ice, let's just say those ice statues won't be the main attraction. Not to this group.

Now that Greinke has joined David Price and Jordan Zimmermann in the multi-gazillionaires' club, the starting pitcher market figures to catch fire this week. And that's good news for Mike Leake, Johnny Cueto and all of us news-starved media types trying to get through the week without just tweeting a bunch of rumors about Yohan Flande.

So who and what should you be watching for? Here's a look at where the market for starting pitching goes from here:

THE DODGERS

When a franchise like the Los Angeles Dodgers gets outspent by 50 million bucks by a franchise like the D-backs on a pitcher like Greinke, the entire sport awaits the Dodgers' next move -- or moves. In a free-agent market this deep, they can find another pitcher. Heck, they're likely to find two of them now. And Cueto, Hisashi Iwakuma and Kenta Maeda all just became infinitely more attractive options than they were two days ago.

But in the wake of this stunner, the Dodgers also have to look beyond just adding arms. They have to look at how they're constructed, top to bottom, because Greinke and Clayton Kershaw sure did cover up a lot of holes these past couple of years. Remember, this team won 65 percent of the games those two started last season -- but was just one game over .500 when anyone else started.

"Let's face it," said one National League executive. "The only reason they were feared by teams that had to face them in the playoffs was those two guys."

JOHNNY CUETO

We know that Cueto said "no thanks" to $120 million over six years from the Diamondbacks. And hardly a day goes by without someone in baseball saying: "I can't believe he turned that down." So does a team like the Dodgers now offer six years to Cueto after balking at offering six to Greinke? You'd think a guy with the sixth-best career ERA (3.30) of any active starter would have no trouble finding those dollars somewhere. But Cueto's health and puzzling finish to this season are mysteries that won't go away.

So even though he now has the most star power of any free-agent starter left on the market, predictions on when he'll find a home range from this week to late January. Which is the greater force -- the lure of his excellent track record, or the fears that he wants much bigger money than his projections now would justify? It's amazing how many people would vote for those fears.

"If you told me that, within 24 hours [of arriving at the meetings], all of the big free-agent starters would be signed except Cueto, I'd believe it," said one NL exec.

MIKE LEAKE

It's a precipitous drop from the Price/Greinke tier of free-agent starters to whatever group comes next. But Leake is apparently in it, because he's another guy whose stock continues to rise, even though his 101 lifetime ERA-Plus tells us he's been basically a league-average starter for most of his career. But --

At age 28, he's also one of the youngest starters out there. And he's one of the best-hitting pitchers in baseball. (Heck, his .545 OPS is better than Madison Bumgarner's.) And he hasn't missed a start because of an arm injury since 2010, making him one of just 13 active pitchers who have made at least 30 starts in every one of the past four seasons. So with multiple teams showing strong interest, there could be a stampede in his direction this week.

"I'd put him in that group of guys who are going to get seriously overpaid by the time all this is done," said an American League exec.

OTHER FREE AGENTS

Did we mention there were about four dozen unemployed starters left on the shelves of the free-agent superstore? Predictions on which ones could sign this week -- and which could be out there through Christmas, New Year's Day and even Super Bowl Sunday -- were all over the map.

The one other starter viewed as most likely to sign quickly: Scott Kazmir. Guys who could easily be out there for quite a while until the market settles: Yovani Gallardo, Wei-Yin Chen, Ian Kennedy and Bartolo Colon.

SHELBY MILLER

Have you heard enough Shelby Miller trade rumors to last you until, like, 2087? Well, get ready for four more days' worth because, despite those protestations in Atlanta that the Braves aren't really looking to trade this man, other teams report they'd hit that EJECT button in a millisecond if they were offered the right young, controllable bat in return.

But the kind of names they're said to have asked for -- Joc Pederson, A.J. Pollock, Jorge Soler, etc. -- tells you all you need to know about the Braves' definition of the "right" bat. They're not looking for prospects in the Florida State League or guys who have a chance to hit. They want high-ceiling thumpers who are ready to mash right now. But even for a pitcher with big upside and three years of control, that asking price "is really steep," said an exec of one team that spoke with them.

"They haven't given us any indication they're going to move him unless they're blown away," said another exec. "They're not just looking for bats. They're looking for major-league-ready bats. Maybe somebody will give them one eventually. But we don't have extra players like that to give away. Not many teams do."

THE INDIANS

Would the Cleveland Indians really trade Carlos Carrasco? Or Danny Salazar? Or Trevor Bauer? They've definitely done a lot of listening. But how much would they have to get in return to chip away at the one area of their team that separates them from just about everyone else? Probably so much that other clubs believe they're unlikely to move any of their starters this week -- and maybe not even after the free-agent supply thins out.

"They could trade one of these guys and maybe bring back a haul," said one AL exec. "But they're not going to sell low on Carrasco or Salazar. And when you get to Bauer and guys like that, what's the real value there? The reason to like their team is because of their pitching. So I don't know if they can really break that up, because then you're just shifting around your problems."

THE PADRES

The San Diego Padres do a lot of talking. The San Diego Padres do a lot of listening. The San Diego Padres make a lot of moves. And at the moment, they're talking and listening on James Shields, Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner. But as we saw last July, much of their talking and much of their listening often dissolves into never-mind territory, not the-news-conference-is-at-noon territory.

So is some team going to take all of the $65 million remaining on Shields' contract a few months after he tied for the league lead in gopher balls while pitching at Petco Park? Is there a team that's really going to give up a big return for Cashner after the most perplexing season of his career (6-16, 4.34 ERA, 84 ERA-Plus)? And would the Padres even be competitive if they dealt away the often-dazzling Ross, who's now a year away from free agency?

"If you trade Tyson Ross, what's your rotation?" wondered one of the execs quoted earlier. "That guy is your best pitcher. And you're going up against the Dodgers, Giants and Diamondbacks. I just don't see how, in the end, they can possibly trade Tyson Ross."

OTHER SELLERS

Two other teams to watch this week: the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays. The Yankees continue to dangle Ivan Nova on one hand while still looking for controllable high-end starters with the other. The Yankees may not drop money out of the chandeliers like they used to. But if you think they're going to go through the next few weeks without changing the face of their pitching staff, we have a bridge on Staten Island we'd like to peddle you.

And don't sleep on the Rays. They have tremendous pitching depth. And they have no fear of using it to address other needs. So if you're familiar with their work, you shouldn't be surprised to hear other teams report they're trying to be "opportunistic" by seeing what kind of offers they can get on the likes of Matt Moore, Jake Odorizzi and pretty much everyone on their staff except Chris Archer. It's what they do. So in a week that figures to be overflowing with trade rumblings, they figure to be right in the middle of several of them.

THE BUYERS

Let's start with the Cardinals. They almost reeled in Price, lost out on Samardzija but never chased Greinke. And they've shown no interest in Cueto. So while they have to add pitching and no doubt will, teams and agents that have talked with them suspect they are as likely to plow their money into a bat (hey there, Jason Heyward) as to overspend for a starter who doesn't fit.

Two weeks ago, we'd have positioned the Chicago Cubs as heavy favorites to sign Price. Then, it turned out, they didn't have $217 million burning a hole in Tom Ricketts' wallet. So instead they invested "only" $32 million to sign John Lackey. And that gives them the flexibility to take advantage of the depth of rotation options by signing or trading for a second starter as this market evolves.

And one more team to watch: the Diamondbacks. They may have spent $206 million on Greinke, but they're far from done. They're all over the bullpen market, for one thing. But they're also on the hunt for a second starting pitcher, with Leake at the top of their list. And they've kicked the tires on a bunch of potential trades. Shelby Miller. Carlos Carrasco. That sort of guy. But you know one thing they're NOT going to do? Trade A.J. Pollock. For anyone.

Got it? Great. Now let those two million pounds of ice start melting already. And watch those four dozen free-agent starters begin flying off the board.

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