Ninety-nine games into the season, the Chicago Cubs were only five games over .500, and the New York Mets were averaging only 3.5 runs per game and not looking as if they were going anywhere. They both got hot at roughly the same time and 2½ months later, they will meet in the National League Championship Series. It is a dream matchup with so many great storylines, the best being this stunning collection of good young hitters against this stunning collection of good pitchers. Just ignore the Cubs' 7-0 regular-season sweep of the Mets that happened pre-August. Now it is the irresistible force against the immovable object.
Here are five questions about the NLCS:
1. How much will the Cubs miss shortstop Addison Russell?
Russell's defense is very good, especially his range. And defense is so important to Cubs manager Joe Maddon. He never feels comfortable with his team unless it's the best it can be defensively. The Cubs took off for many different reasons this year, but one was moving Russell from second base to shortstop and Starlin Castro from shortstop to second. Russell's replacement, Javier Baez, is an above-average defensive shortstop and has tremendous power. The opposite-field home run he hit in the LDS against the Cardinals looked as if it had been hit by a left-handed power hitter. The Cubs will be an even more potent offense with Baez, but they won't be the same defensively without Russell.
2. How will the Mets' starting rotation line up?
The Mets needed both starter Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard -- for one ridiculously overpowering inning -- to win Game 5 of the LDS over the Dodgers. Normally, having used both starters would be a big detriment, but these Mets have depth and can still start Matt Harvey at home in Game 1 and could go with Syndergaard or Steven Matz in Game 2. Then they would have deGrom on full rest in Game 3. This is the ultimate strength of the Mets. No matter what the series, they have a young starting pitcher with dominant stuff lined up. Harvey is the key. It is unclear if he will pitch twice in the NLCS, but to keep the other starters in sync, he might have to. It might all depend how he feels -- and how he does in Game 1.
3. How dangerous is the Cubs' offense?
In the LDS against the Cardinals, the Cubs became the first team to hit six home runs in a postseason game. Those homers came from the Nos. 1-6 hitters in the lineup, making the Cubs the third team in history -- joining the 1954 Giants and the 2015 Mets -- to get home runs from its first six batters in the order in any game. The Cubs were the first to do it in a postseason game. They are so dangerous now, especially given the way right-fielder Jorge Soler has swung the bat -- and not swung the bat; he reached base in the first nine plate appearances (four walks) of his postseason career, a major league record. There is no easy way to pitch to this lineup, even though Cubs hitters also struck out more times this season than any previous playoff team. Teams with lots of strikeouts can win as long as they hit a lot of homers. In 36 games this season, a team struck out 15 times and still won. That happened 22 times from 1900 to 1960 combined.
4. How good is Mets closer Jeurys Familia?
Familia is overpowering. His hard sinker and splitter are a nightmare for hitters. In clinching Game 5 of the LDS at Dodger Stadium, Familia got six outs, the first six-out save of his career -- and he did it on only 21 pitches. The previous Met to get a six-out save in the postseason was Jesse Orosco in Game 7 of the 1986 World Series. In the LDS, Familia faced 16 batters without allowing a baserunner. The challenge for the Mets will be getting from the starters to Familia. Syndergaard covered the seventh inning in Game 5, and Familia took things from there, but in a seven-game series, New York is going to need more outs from its bullpen. Bartolo Colon could play a huge part. And Tyler Clippard probably will have the opportunity to get some big outs in the seventh and eighth innings, given his career success against left-handed batters.
5. What are we to make of the Cubs' rotation?
Jon Lester will start Game 1. He was signed to an enormous contract in the offseason precisely to pitch in a game like this; it just wasn't supposed to happen this year. Lester has been very good in the postseason, where he has a 2.66 ERA with 72 hits allowed and 82 strikeouts in 91 1/3 innings. Jake Arrieta will pitch Game 2. Until his previous start, he had recorded a 0.81 ERA in 21 starts, perhaps the greatest finish to a season of any pitcher in history. But in that most recent start, Arrieta gave up four runs on 97 pitches, as many earned runs as he had allowed in his previous 1,393 innings. The idea that the magic is over for Arrieta is ludicrous. After all, it wasn't magic that produced his historic season. It was a slider from hell combined with tremendous command of all his pitches.
The bigger question for the Cubs is the rest of the rotation, notably Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel. But if either struggles, Maddon will go to his bullpen quickly. Hammel didn't finish three innings in Game 5 of the LDS against the Cardinals, but the power-armed bullpen came on to strike out 13 batters in six innings.
Cubs in seven.