The Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs, with 98 and 97 victories, respectively, will play an elimination game Tuesday. This is why Major League Baseball added the second wild-card team -- it gives a Game 7 feel to the first day of the National League playoffs. This is also why the playoff system someday might be changed, because the second- or third-best team in the major leagues will go home after one game while teams with inferior records will get to play on.
Here are five questions:
1. Can Jake Arrieta be beaten?
It is virtually impossible to be better than Arrieta has been for three months. He had the lowest ERA (0.86) by any pitcher in his final 20 starts of the season since ERA became in an official statistic in 1912 in the National League and 1913 in the American League; only Bob Gibson in 1968 had a better ERA in any 20-start stretch of anyone's career. Arrieta also had the lowest ERA (0.41) ever from Aug. 1 (10 starts) on; every other pitcher has an ERA at least twice that high. Arrieta is the only pitcher ever to go 11-0 with a 0.41 ERA over any 12-start stretch; in those 12, he has allowed 16 hard-hit balls, 1.5 per game, and threw as many GIDPs as extra-base hits allowed. Since June 21, he allowed two home runs and hit two home runs. His slider is unhittable. And he started five times against the Pirates this year, went 3-1 in 36 innings, allowed 18 hits, three earned runs (0.75 ERA), walked five and struck out 33. The Pirates are hitting .151 off him.
2. Have we forgotten about Gerrit Cole?
That would be a big mistake. He is a 19-game winner. He was very good in his last two starts of the regular season ("best I have seen him this year,'' one scout said) and he had success against the Cubs this year: four starts, 2-1 record, 25 1/3 innings, 20 hits, six earned runs (2.13 ERA), four walks and 32 strikeouts. The Cubs hit only .225 against him. And, unlike Arrieta, Cole has been here before. In 2013, at age 22, he made two postseason starts against the Cardinals, allowing five hits in 11 innings. He will not be shaken.
3. Are the young Cubs ready for this?
They may be a year ahead of schedule, but this team seems ready for anything. Rookies Kris Bryant, Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber appear unfazed by the pressure of a pennant race, and even though the atmosphere in Pittsburgh on Wednesday night will be incredible, great talent trumps inexperience, and that's what the Cubs have. Plus, they have a manager (Joe Maddon) who is the best at creating calm, and making sure everyone is ready. Maddon might play Schwarber, a catcher who has mostly played left field this year, in right field in the wild-card game because there is less ground to cover there at PNC Park. In that scenario, Bryant would play left field and Tommy La Stella, a left-handed hitter, would replace rookie right fielder Jorge Soler in the lineup against Cole, a right-hander.
4. Is this the best Pirates team of the past three years?
It would be, without question, if infielder Jung Ho Kang was healthy. Still, the Pirates are really good, especially with what they added at the trade deadline, most notably Aramis Ramirez. And, the Pirates know all about the pressure of a one-game wild card -- they played in it two years ago (they won) and last season (they lost). PNC Park will be rocking.
5. How big a factor will the bullpen be?
It's always big this time of year, and the Pirates had the lowest bullpen ERA (2.69) in the league this year, led by a 50-save closer, Mark Melancon. The Cubs had a 3.39 bullpen ERA. But this is going to come down to Arrieta and Cole, and right now, it's impossible not to take a pitcher who, over a three-, two- and one-month period, has done things no pitcher has ever done.
Cubs in one.