Why so many falling stars?
If there's been a theme to these early weeks, it's been the "proven commodities" in fantasy baseball terms getting off to sluggish starts, especially those at prime or just-past-prime ages who are fueling questions about career declines. In this week's going-forward rankings, several household names suffered in terms of valuation, so let's examine what's behind each of their cold starts.
Robinson Cano: An early second-round pick going by ESPN ADP this preseason, and my No. 12 player overall in terms of preseason rank, Cano on Wednesday morning found himself outside the top 300 overall players and top 25 second basemen on our Player Rater, despite his having played all but four innings for the Seattle Mariners to date.
Nevertheless, Cano also finds himself on pace to strike out at the highest rate of his career (16.9 percent), his called-strike rate (33.1) is the highest it has been in any of the seven seasons for which we have such data, his chase rate (34.3) is the highest it has been since 2011 and he's 32, which is the phase of a hitter's career at which you might expect some noticeable downturn in skills. This is not a good combination, and let's not gloss over that he's only the third second baseman in history to have appeared in at least 150 games at second base in eight different years through his age-31 season (Nellie Fox, Ryne Sandberg), and both Fox and Sandberg showed noticeable signs of decline by age 33.
This isn't to say that Cano can't rebound and provide one more top-shelf season or that he is in the midst of decline, but the chances are increasing, and it's possible that, even with this week's adjustment, he's being valued too generously.
Troy Tulowitzki: He's the subject of the video at column's top, but there's more "geeky-stat" data that fuels concern about his 2015. Tulowitzki's 22.7 percent strikeout rate would be his highest since his 25-game cup of coffee in 2006 (23.1 percent); his .290 wOBA (weighted on-base average) against right-handers would be his worst since, again, 2006 (.287); and his chase rate -- rate of swings at pitches outside the strike zone -- has soared to 33.2 percent, which is nearly 5 percent higher than the league's average.
Now 30, Tulowitzki doesn't look the same as he did in years past, though one point in his defense is that he has often been a slower-starter, hotter-finisher -- though his 2013-14 didn't follow such a pattern -- as his career second-half wOBA (.398) is 29 points higher than his first-half wOBA (.369). That should be the fact you toss out if you dangle him out there to cash in his trade chip.
Ian Desmond: His brutal defense this season has been the troubling development from a baseball perspective, and perhaps that's carrying over to his perceived fantasy baseball value. He has minus-4 defensive runs saved, a total that's worse than all but 22 other players and second worst among shortstops, and his minus-2.5 ultimate zone rating is fourth worst at his position. Still, there's one comparative fact that supports the "patience" approach:
Desmond's stats through May 20, 2014: 44 G, .237/.285/.405, 7 HR, 25 RBI, 2 SB, 26.3 K%, 6.5 BB%
Desmond's stats through May 20, 2015: 40 G, .244/.297/.369, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 1 SB, 24.9 K%, 5.8 BB%
Addressing the power difference, Desmond did hit three homers in a seven-game stretch leading into this date a season ago, so this was indeed about the time he began to produce more at the plate in 2014. But he did homer on Tuesday and has seven hits in his past four games, so at least it's a start. And considering he's one of the few players in all of baseball, let alone just shortstops, with 20/20 potential, Desmond warrants more patience.
Stephen Strasburg: Desmond's teammate, Strasburg, was however one of the most difficult to rank this week. The soreness in his shoulder that caused him to exit early from his May 5 start seems to have held him back at least somewhat in two turns since, though at the same time, he has recaptured some of his previously lost fastball velocity in those games, his 95.3 and 95.8 mph averages in his May 12 and 17 starts representing his highest in any game this season. In addition, most of Strasburg's peripherals -- command, hard-hit rates, batted-ball rates -- aren't so far off his previous norms that there's any other reason for skills concern. As you can see with his ranking below, I lean more toward being a "buyer," but his injury cannot be simply dismissed, because it's the primary reason he could slip a dozen -- or dozens -- of spots quickly.
The 'new arrivals'
Well, how about some good news for a change?
Let's now take the opposite approach, examining some of 2015's breakout studs, and what it is that they have done that makes me so optimistic about their rest-of-year values.
Anthony Rizzo: He was my No. 13 overall player from the preseason, I was so tempted to slot him in my top 10, and now it looks like a grave error to not have done so; I'm merely glad I acquired him in a few of my leagues, though, in retrospect, I wish I had in all of them. Perhaps no prominent player has made greater improvement in terms of his plate discipline this year:
2015: 10.0 K%, 12.9 BB%, 17.2 Miss%, 22.1 Chase%, 27.3 CalledStrike%
2012-14: 18.2 K%, 10.5 BB%, 21.9 Miss%, 29.9 Chase%, 31.5 CalledStrike%
It was less than a calendar year ago that, when watching Rizzo play, I had wondered whether ultimately he'd become a big-power, regular-miss slugger, the type with 40-plus-homer, but .260-average ability. I look at him today and see an extremely complete hitter, one with legitimate claims to a .300 batting average, 20-plus homers and 12 steals ... and that's from today forward. There's no question he now belongs in the first round, as he's essentially a Paul Goldschmidt, trading a small hint of power for a slightly higher average.
Mike Moustakas: Do not sell this guy. Besides Rizzo, Moustakas might be the hitter who has made the most tangible adjustments; he is an entirely different hitter at the plate in 2015 comparative to seasons past. Take a look at some of his key statistical changes:
2015: 9.3 K%, 13.4 Miss%, 35.3% of balls in play hit to the opposite field
2012-14: 17.3 K%, 20.5 Miss%, 22.9% of balls in play hit to the opposite field
Moustakas has taken a considerably more all-fields approach to hitting, and it has raised his basement well above where it was in the past, which was a scarcely even usable player in AL-only formats. Though it might not result in big power numbers -- he might be more .300-hitting, 15-20 homer hitter than .270/25 -- it's plenty to make him a bona fide top-10 third baseman candidate all year.
Eric Hosmer: Turning to Moustakas' teammate, while Hosmer's numbers in the same departments haven't shifted to the same degree, it's clear that, like Moustakas, he has adopted more of an all-fields approach in an effort to counter defensive shifts. Hosmer has hit 32.0 percent of balls in play to the opposite field, up from 25.5 percent in 2014 and within range of the 33.5 percent rate he enjoyed during his 2013 that finished with four outstanding months. In addition, he seems to be getting better lift on the ball, evidenced by his 49.2 percent ground ball rate, which would be the lowest number of his career. And considering Hosmer indeed made some adjustments to his swing during his August 2014 DL stint, there's reason to believe something has changed. They're small samples, but the comparison is interesting nevertheless:
Aug. 31 through playoffs, 2014: 42 G, .311/.381/.510, 20.8 K%, 10.1 BB%, .199 ISO, .179 HHAV, 48.3 GB%, 24.1 LD%
2015 to date: 39 G, .322/.399/.546, 18.4 K%, 10.9 BB%, .224 ISO, .176 HHAV, 49.2 GB%, 25.4 LD%
I'm generally the quickest to embrace Hosmer's breakout potential, and I won't hide that fact here. But looking at those samples, albeit small, and considering his 25 years of age, Hosmer sure looks like he has finally arrived.
New ESPN position eligibility
The following players added new position eligibility within the past week. As a reminder, position players need to appear 10 times at a new position to gain in-season eligibility, while pitchers need to make three starts to earn starting-pitching eligibility or five relief appearances to earn relief-pitching eligibility.
Chris Colabello (OF), Delino DeShields (OF), Taylor Featherston (3B), Yohan Flande (RP), Mike Foltynewicz (SP), Carlos Frias (SP), Jung Ho Kang (3B), Sean O'Sullivan (SP), Steve Pearce (2B), Hansel Robles (RP), Wilin Rosario (1B), Yangervis Solarte (1B), Sammy Solis (RP).
The following players are within two games of earning new eligibility, with their total games played noted at the listed position: Daniel Descalso (SS, 8 games), Danny Espinosa (3B, 8 games), Marwin Gonzalez (1B, 8 games), Alex Guerrero (OF, 9 games; 3B, 8 games), Elian Herrera (3B, 8 games), Jonathan Herrera (SS, 9 games), Rey Navarro (2B, 8 games), Kennys Vargas (1B, 8 games).
Going-forward rankings: Week 7
Listed below are my updated, going-forward rankings. These are based upon an ESPN standard league of 10 teams and Rotisserie 5x5 scoring. Click here to see these rankings sorted by position.