Well, we're two and a half weeks into another fascinating baseball season. And here's what we're pretty sure we know:
Nelson Cruz is not going to hit 100 home runs. Bartolo Colon is not going to go 37-0. And Luis Valbuena is not going to outhomer the Brewers.
But as usual, the things we don't know tend to vastly outnumber the things we do. So it's time once again to look at some of the early-season surprises out there (good and bad), make those tough calls and play another edition of that ever-popular April guessing game, "Reality or Illusion?" OK then. Ready for a reality check? Here we go:
Alex Rodriguez
What he's done: Believe it or not, A-Rod has four homers already, not to mention a 1.011 OPS. Which makes him one of just eight players in the entire sport with that many home runs and an OPS north of 1.000. So let's ask
Reality or illusion? "Of all the surprises in baseball," one longtime scout told us, "he has to be the biggest." And who could argue? So is he going to be better than even Tony Bosch suspected? We'll go that far. But is this what he's going to be? At 39. On two rebuilt hips? C'mon. "I can see him running to first one day and there goes the hip," said the same scout. And we second that motion. So because we're convinced he's due to break down at any moment, our vote is: ILLUSION.
Adam Jones
What he's done: Jones has been a really good player for at least three years. But this year? Wow. Jones leads the league in OPS, OPS-Plus, Offensive Winning Percentage and hits, among other things. But here's the most significant part: After averaging 132 whiffs a year over the last three seasons, he's on pace to strike out just 58 times, even in a year in which he's seeing fewer pitches in the strike zone (37.4 percent, according to FanGraphs) than at any time in his career.
Reality or illusion? "He's gone to another level," said one scout. "And I think he may sustain it. Offensively and defensively, what I've seen so far, you could argue he's practically in the same league as Mike Trout." It's always going to be a worry that Jones chases too many balls out of the strike zone. "But you know what?" said the same scout. "He swings at everything, but he hits everything. He hits bad pitches. He hits good pitches. He hits mistakes. He's about as hot, in every aspect, as I've ever seen anybody." OK, I'm sold: REALITY.
Trevor Bauer
What he's done: Basically, Bauer has just unfurled the three best starts of his career, back to back to back. That's all. When a guy is leading the league in both strikeouts (26 in 20 innings) and fewest hits allowed (just 8 in 20 innings, or 3.79 per 9 IP), he's in Clayton Kershaw territory -- well, for three starts anyway.
Reality or illusion? It's taken relentless work and patience. But when the Indians traded for Bauer in 2013, this was the pitcher they thought they were trading for. Since the moment last season ended, Bauer went to work to try to refine his delivery and improve his fastball command. And while his walk total doesn't reflect it, his GM, Chris Antonetti, told us he thinks Bauer's ability to locate his fastball all over the strike zone has kept hitters off balance and helped make his change and cutter more effective. So the Indians actually think this is a guy who even has a chance to "improve as the season progresses," Antonetti said, because of his "continuous quest to get better and work his way to becoming an elite starting pitcher." Remember, kids, you can't be great unless you aspire to be great. So our grade is: REALITY.
Bartolo Colon
What he's done: The Mets tried to trade him all winter -- then started him on Opening Day, of course. And all he's done is go 3-0 in three starts, with a sub-1 WHIP (0.80), the best walk ratio in the whole sport (20 IP, 1 BB) and the second-best strikeout/walk ratio (18-1).
Reality or illusion? All right, we've given up doubting this guy. He's a month away from his 42nd birthday. He's built like a defensive tackle. And somehow, he now has a better ERA in his 40s (3.34) than he had in his 20s (3.85). "He's amazing," said one of the scouts quoted earlier. "All those pitchers who don't understand how important location is should just watch him. He's almost all fastballs and cutters. Very few breaking balls. But he just really locates. And it's amazing to watch." He's been doing this for years now. So the vote is: REALITY.
DJ LeMahieu
What he's done: Just as we all expected, the Rockies' Gold Glove second baseman is third in the league in hitting (.417/.440/.521), and even batting .414 on the road. The Rockies haven't had a player win a batting title since, oh wait, last year. So they're about due.
Reality or illusion? On one hand, LeMahieu has always had good at-bats and put a ton of balls in play. On the other hand, he had a .276 career average and .676 OPS entering the season, despite all those games he's played at Coors Field. And even this year, "he's been fortunate," said one scout. "He had one game where he had three infield hits. He's just had a lot of balls fall in. So I don't see that holding up." Yeah, us, too. So we're voting: ILLUSION.
Shane Greene
What he's done: How's this trade looking so far? After three starts as a Tiger, Greene has allowed a total of one earned run, and just 12 hits, in 23 innings. The last Tiger to start a season with three consecutive starts of seven innings or more and no more than one run allowed? How about Jack Morris in 1984.
Reality or illusion? The Yankees sometimes had doubts whether Greene would throw enough strikes. So much for that. Only Chris Sale (70.9) and Phil Hughes (70.4) have thrown a higher percentage of strikes this year than Greene has (69.4). So no wonder it was Greene's strike-throwing and aggressive approach that Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski told us he likes most about him. Then again, Greene has only struck out 11 in 23 innings. Which tells us his BABIP (.188) can't possibly be sustainable. (It was .330 last year). So even Dombrowski says he's "not sure he will keep up this start, but he is a good major league pitcher." And that's the point. There's a level of reality to what we've seen. But is Shane Greene this good? Sorry: ILLUSION.
Jon Lester
What he's done: Three starts into his Cubs career, Lester owns zero quality starts, a 6.89 ERA, a 1.79 WHIP and a .353/.389/.500 opponent slash line, not to mention five steals allowed and a pickoff throw that sailed halfway to Joliet. Luckily, this would never make Cubs fans in the least bit nervous. Never.
Reality or illusion? When a guy has a track record like Lester, you tend to look on the sunny side of life. So we should point out that Lester actually had a similar three-game start in 2010 (0-2, 8.44), then recovered to go 19-9, with a 3.25 ERA and a top-four Cy Young finish. Nevertheless ... "I'm concerned," said one scout. "I don't see the finish on the fastball. I don't see the finish on the cutter I've seen in the past. I don't see the command. I don't see the ball coming out of his hand the way it has before. And he's got the yips throwing to first base. So you just wonder. That's all." Yeah, we all wonder. But Lester has been too good for too long. And he's making the always helpful AL-to-NL shift. Meaning we'll cast a shaky vote for: ILLUSION.
Madison Bumgarner
What he's done: In three starts, MadBum has already allowed more runs (10, in 17 innings) than he allowed in the entire 2014 postseason (seven, in 52.1 innings). He's striking out just 5.8 hitters per nine innings. And his swing-and-miss percentage (17.0) is at an all-time low.
Reality or illusion? After October, you expected Sandy Koufax. Instead, said one scout, "he's not the same. More mistakes. More mistakes over the plate. I've seen a lot of pitches with a flat plane, hanging breaking balls and missed location with the fastball. Maybe it's the toll of all the innings. Maybe it's the shortened offseason. But he's not the same." So this is a tough vote. Over the long haul, we'd guess Bumgarner will be the least of the Giants' problems. But if we expected him to meet the standard he set for himself last fall, then we have to vote: REALITY.
Cole Hamels
What he's done: Hamels was supposed to be punching his ticket out of Philly. Instead, he's allowed seven home runs in just 18 innings (after giving up 14 all last season). And walked nine in 18 innings (more than double his walk rate over the previous four seasons). And allowed an .857 slugging percentage on fastballs, almost double the .439 of the previous five seasons). Yikes.
Reality or illusion? Granted, he's still averaging a strikeout an inning, but he's had issues getting the ball down since spring training. And he still is. "He doesn't have the same angle or finish to either his fastball or changeup," said one scout. "The fastball doesn't have that really good downward angle, that used to come down the hill and sink and tail. Those pitches are coming in mid-thigh now, with no finish, and they're getting whacked. His delivery looks off. And he doesn't look as focused as I'm used to." So much like the Giants and Bumgarner, the Phillies will have uglier issues than Hamels in their future. But he hasn't been the same for weeks now. And that's trouble for a team that needs to deal him. Our vote: REALITY.
Carlos Beltran
What he's done: Beltran turns 38 next week -- and he's looked it. His early slash line: .171/.222/.268, with zero home runs and creaky defense in right field.
Reality or illusion? It's hard not to admire the career Beltran has had. And maybe, as one scout suggested, he just "doesn't like to hit when it's cold." But on the other hand ... "he can't play the field," said another scout. "He can't get to balls in the gap. He can't throw real well anymore. And he's really cheating at the plate. I hate to say this, but I really don't think he'll be a factor. He's smart enough to hit .265, with a few home runs here and there. But he's a liability in the field. And the way their team is set up, he has to play the field more than he ought to." So we have no choice but to cast one final vote for: REALITY.