Baseball is a zero-sum game. For every team that wins, another team loses. Every walk-off home run celebrated with high-fives also includes a reliever kicking something in the dugout.
No matter the actual name of the team sport, equilibrium is the true name of the game, and success and failure are the two sides of the coin. Last week I wrote about players I most expect to have bounce-back seasons. Now it's time for the flip side, the disappointments. Last year, this column warned about Carlos Beltran, Derek Jeter, Corey Hart, Jeff Locke, John Danks, Junior Lake and Jarred Cosart. Let's see who comes up this year:
Alfredo Simon, SP, Detroit Tigers
2015 ZiPS projection: 152 2/3 IP, 4.60 ERA, 89 ERA+, 1.3 WAR
The Tigers somehow have the impression that despite losing Max Scherzer and trading Rick Porcello (to Boston) this offseason, a full season of David Price and the additions of Shane Greene and Simon will keep the falloff from being too steep. Well, they're probably wrong.