The courtship, or lack thereof, of Max Scherzer will go down as one of the landmark events of the 2014-15 offseason. For weeks and months, there was nothing. Then, just as he had done many times before, Scott Boras matched player with obvious club, netting his client a landmark deal despite no obvious competition for his services. This contract -- seven years, $210 million, or a bit less if you want to discount the significant deferred payments -- is a big deal, no pun intended. Should pitchers, with their inherent susceptibility to injury and variability of performance relative to position players, be compensated so well, and for so long?
First off, I personally think Scherzer is a solid fit in Washington, compared to other potential destinations. Nationals Park is a stealthy pitchers' park, especially with regard to fly balls, a Scherzer specialty. He'll have an athletic outfield defense behind him, to boot. But seven years? A hefty $210 mil? Jayson Stark covered this very topic last week. Long-term, big-dollar contracts for pitchers generally do not end well. Let's expand on his analysis, not only looking at pitchers who have received such deals, but at the entire population of elite pitchers during the divisional era. How many pitchers going into their age-30 seasons would have been worth such a contract over the next seven seasons?