BOSTON -- Four days before Christmas, and no team has invested more in free agents this winter than the Boston Red Sox, who have outspent three entire divisions, as MLBtraderumors.com noted Monday.
The Sox have spent $194.5 million on four players: Pablo Sandoval ($95 million), Hanley Ramirez ($88 million), Justin Masterson ($9.5 million) and Craig Breslow ($2 million). Add the $19 million they spent to keep from losing Koji Uehara to free agency, and that total rises to $213.5 million. International free agent Rusney Castillo, signed in August, cost $72 million more, meaning the Sox investment in big league alterations approaches $300 million. The Sox have also added four players via trade this winter: starting pitchers Wade Miley and Rick Porcello, reliever Anthony Varvaro and catcher Ryan Hanigan. Five other players -- pitcher Joe Kelly, outfielder Allen Craig, starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez and relievers Heath Hembree and Edwin Escobar -- remain from July trades.
This, then, is a roster reconstruction that may have lacked the drama of the machinations of the Padres and Dodgers but is remarkable, nonetheless, for a team that won the World Series just 14 months ago. As we noted last week, 14 players who were on the team's Opening Day roster in April have departed.
So perhaps it is reasonable to assume that general manager Ben Cherington was not just posturing Saturday when he said the Red Sox were not "actively engaged" in trying to add an elite starting pitcher to the team's rotation. Especially at the going rates for the premier free agents still available: $100 million or so for James Shields, perhaps double that for Max Scherzer. While there would appear to be trade opportunities for Phillies ace Cole Hamels or Nationals front-liners Jordan Zimmermann or Doug Fister, the Sox have yet to show a willingness to part with the type of prospects it would take to make a deal.
An increasingly plausible scenario is that the Sox will enter the 2015 season with the rotation as is, trusting that top-to-bottom depth will keep them as competitive as they would have been with an ace, a proposition fraught with risk for a team that had its chances to lock up Jon Lester long term and failed to do so. Under that scenario, the Sox would be in contention at the trading deadline, then make a push for an ace then, anticipating that pending free agents Johnny Cueto, Zimmerman, Fister and David Price could be available.
Do the Red Sox have the pitching to make that approach work? We put that question to a major league talent evaluator, who offered a generally positive assessment while pointing out a couple of red flags. Here are his thoughts on each starter:
Rick Porcello
"The whole package improved last season. He maintained his stuff all year and threw more quality strikes. He's never going to have the raw velocity he used to have; his raw stuff is not as enticing as it once was, but maybe it will all click for him. Before he had a lot of contact against left-handed hitters, but he's made some adjustments, gets ahead of hitters more, tightened up his breaking ball. For me, he's a No. 3.''
Justin Masterson
"He's a two-pitch guy, fastball, slider, whose velocity took a real hit. You really don't know if it was because of the knee, the oblique or the shoulder. But he's a guy who used to come out of the chute throwing 95 to 98 in the first inning, blowing away people with all four-seamers, and you didn't see that at all last year. It affected his slider, too. He was adding and subtracting with his two-seamer, throwing 87, 88, 89, but you wouldn't see that real heavy sink very often. He's never had an out pitch against left-handed hitters, and the loss of velocity made that even more pronounced. He's got to add a couple of miles to his fastball, or develop a changeup. A real question mark.''
Joe Kelly
"I love his arm. To me, he has better stuff than Porcello across the board. He throws both types of fastballs, a power breaking ball. His changeup hasn't gotten a whole lot of use. With him, the issue has always been command, getting ahead of hitters, and staying healthy. We haven't seen a full year yet from him, but he's got good upside.''
Wade Miley
"I like Miley. He pounds the ball in against right-handers. He crushes the inner sliver of the plate. He uses his fastball and cutter there, then busts a slider down and in. He makes mistakes over the plate and gives up home runs, but for me he's a solid No. 3 with a little more ceiling. His velocity is not going to wow you, but he is by no means a soft tosser. He has at least average velocity and maybe a tick better. He might have nibbled a little too much last season, but I don't see command as a roadblock.''
Clay Buchholz
"I'm a fan of the stuff, not a fan of the health or the approach. To me, he tries to throw every single pitch to every single hitter. He has a phobia about holding runners, and he pitches with such a slow tempo. His stuff says he should be so much better. To me, Porcello, Miley, and Kelly are better than Buchholz, when you look at the overall picture.''