Golf
Jason Sobel, ESPN Senior Writer 9y

Stenson part of 'doomsday scenario' at Tour Championship

Golf

ATLANTA -- As one of the top five players in the FedEx Cup points standings, Henrik Stenson controls his own destiny* for the $10 million first-place bonus at this week's Tour Championship.

(*Lazy sportswriter alert: Athletes can't control their own destiny. Nobody can. By its very definition, destiny can't be controlled. So really, Stenson controls his own outcome. Which doesn't sound nearly as poetic as destiny, but is much more accurate. Now, back to the column.)

Much like two years ago, when Stenson pulled off the end-of-season double-dip, if he wins the tournament this weekend, he'll also win the playoff series. He's off to a good start, too, with an opening-round performance that flirted with a potential 59 before ending as a 7-under 63, good for a 2-stroke lead heading into Friday's play.

It's subject to debate whether this is the most rewarding system or not. Some will argue that Jason Day or Jordan Spieth deserve to win the overall title more than a guy who hasn't won up until this point. Others will insist that, like other sports, the playoffs don't always crown the best team. It's all about timing.

Whichever side of the fence you're on, at least the math is simple: If Stenson wins, he wins it all. That would wrap the entire ball of wax into one neat little bow.

And then there's the other possibility. Call it the doomsday scenario for PGA Tour brass.

It's the one in which Stenson could win the FedEx Cup without winning the final tournament. In fact, he could win the FedEx Cup without ever winning this season at all.

Already with three runner-up results during the 2014-15 campaign, if Stenson finishes solo second here this week, he'll win the $10 million if Day, Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Bubba Watson, Zach Johnson, Dustin Johnson or Charley Hoffman don't win the tournament. If he's solo second and Daniel Berger wins? Playoff. And yes, if he finishes in a two- or three- or four-way tie for second, well, that changes all of the possible scenarios, creating a mishmash of potential conclusions.

Sound confusing? That's nothing.

Stenson can also win the FedEx Cup if he finishes in solo third place and the following things each happen (take a deep breath): Day finishes 14th or worse, Spieth finishes sixth or worse, Fowler finishes fourth or worse, and the winner is either Paul Casey, Brandt Snedeker, Steven Bowditch, Brooks Koepka, Bill Haas, Kevin Na, Sang-Moon Bae or Harris English.

So if you're scoring at home, that means the player who entered the final event without a title to his name and ranked fourth on the points list could wind up in third place this week and clinch the whole enchilada.

Which is exactly why it's a doomsday scenario.

Following that opening 63, even Stenson struggled to articulate all of the possible outcomes besides simply winning the tournament.

"I had a look before we came here and I saw there's a decent chance still if I'm solo second," he said. "Other than that, I'll leave that to someone else to figure that out -- a computer or something."

He's right about that. The PGA Tour has computers which not only calculate projections in real time, but also show where each player will finish based on his fellow competitors' performances.

Just like every edition of the FedEx Cup, there are outcomes which would neatly tie the season together and others which would leave it messier than an unraked bunker.

It isn't often you see a player celebrate a tournament loss, but that could be the case this week, if Stenson or another player near the top of the standings comes up short.

"If I were to finish second and win the FedEx Cup, I'm pretty sure I'll be smiling on Sunday," he suggested. "I'll be smiling more if I got two trophies than one, but I'll deal with one as well. But at this point, I'm here to try and win this Tour Championship for the second time and it would be great to pull that off. ... We'll cross that bridge when we get there. I'll be smiling either way, I think, if I'm in the top two and it would work out one way or the other."

It wouldn't just be an awkward conclusion. It would be the ultimate doomsday scenario.

Of course, Stenson can render that possibility moot if he claims his first victory of the season this week. Hey, after all, the playoffs are all about timing.

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