The clay season has often become synonymous with the Rafael Nadal season. The Spaniard's dominance on the surface has been so thorough and so sustained that this period of the year is not even about how many matches he will win, but how many he won't.
In 2010, Nadal went 22-0, winning three clay-court Masters in Monte Carlo, Rome and Madrid before taking the French Open. A year ago, he created consternation by dropping all of three matches, something he hadn't done since he was a teenager just getting started on the tour.
For Nadal on clay, the bar for success is high or higher. That means he arrives for his first clay-court event in Monte Carlo this week trailed by an unusual amount of questions, with his ranking having fallen to No. 5 following a series of injuries and some uneven performances as he has returned this season.
"It's a clay-court season where perhaps I'm arriving in the worst form of my career," Nadal told Spanish television. "My ranking is based on these next six, seven, eight weeks, and if I don't manage to get better results, then my ranking will suffer quite a lot."
He has not gone further than the quarterfinals of any hard-court event this season, but has a semifinal and title from the two smaller clay-court events he played in between. Those results suggest that however Nadal is playing, his game gets a lift when there is crushed red brick underneath. But for Nadal, his movement is a little bit better, his topspin bounces a little bit higher and his ability to retrieve and wear down opponents is that little bit greater than his opponents.
Will getting back to clay be just what Nadal needs to get back his form? It is still very much in his hands. Though the 28-year-old has shown he can still play at his old level at times, he has said nerves are affecting his performances.
For Nadal, then, it is not a question of tennis but of confidence, and there is nowhere he is more confident than his favorite surface.
"For me, the most important is the mental part, because I don't think I forgot how to play," he told press before Monte Carlo. "I know that I have to play better than what I did. I'm working to be playing well again as soon as possible. If I did not believe in my chances, I would not be here.
"From playing bad to playing well, there is not a very big difference. It's just small things that make big changes. If I'm well mentally, if I can play with a little bit more confidence, it will be easier to hit better shots."
His fellow players are hardly writing him off, for his record on clay is as formidable as he is. Nadal has nine French Open titles, a stunning 92.9 winning percentage and 46 titles on the surface, more than Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and David Ferrer combined.
"Even though he has struggled with injuries and lack of matches, it's Nadal, and this is his surface," said world No. 1 Djokovic, who is looking to win his first French Open following repeated frustration at the hands of Nadal.
The Serb has become his most frequent challenger, going 4-5 against Nadal on clay since 2011, though he has never defeated him at the French Open. The two are in the same half at Monte Carlo and could meet again in the semifinals. Djokovic is in better form entering the event, but he is coming off a draining hard-court run. Federer, Ferrer and defending champion Stan Wawrinka have occasionally -- but only occasionally -- made an impact at the big clay events recently and are also playing the tournament.
Plus, if not at his best, Nadal must watch for others on this surface as well. There are up-and-comers like Kei Nishikori, who led by a set and a break in Madrid before getting injured, or Milos Raonic, who defeated Nadal in Indian Wells and could sneak through a tiebreaker or two. Some shot-makers, such as Fabio Fognini, who defeated a tired Nadal in Rio, or Fernando Verdasco, who got through their match in Miami, could also spring a surprise.
But can anyone meet the standard Nadal has set? The answer has typically been no, but the difference this year is that it also includes the Spaniard himself. How he performs on his best surface will reveal a lot about where he stands against the field.
It is Nadal who is usually the measure of the clay season. This time, the clay season will also be the measure of Nadal.