Peter Bodo, ESPN.com Staff Writer 9y

Why Serena will win the Aussie final

It looks like the promoters of the Australian Open got the final they secretly hoped for: a clash between the world No. 1 and No. 2 players. A battle between two icons, one cultural and the other commercial. A confrontation between two women who each have achieved a career Grand Slam. A meeting in which one of the principals hasn't beaten the other in over a decade.

Say what?

Yes, it has been 10 years and about eight weeks since Maria Sharapova, then 17, last throttled Serena Williams. It was in the fall of 2004, the year that Facebook launched. Williams has forced Sharapova to exist in a nuclear winter ever since.

Yet, one popular theory holds that due to the five-year age difference (Williams is 33, Sharapova closing on 28) between the two and Williams's durability, Sharapova is destined to end this rivalry with a few wins.

Here are six reasons why that won't happen, at least not starting this weekend. 

1.  Williams isn't really 33 years old. Fooled you, didn't he, that old fox Richard Williams. Serena is actually 23 years old, and won her first major at the age of 7 (that sounds young, but remember she was just a few weeks shy of her 8th birthday on that September afternoon in New York). Richard knew that people got a mite touchy about child labor issues, so he passed Serena, who was big for her age, off as older. Oh, she may look older than 23 now, but hers is a stressful lifestyle and you can get wicked crows' feet from all that squinting in the sun.

2. Both women can serve well, but Williams can do it day-in and day-out. With Sharapova, that dreaded two-headed fault monster always seems to be lurking just above and behind her shoulder. Sharapova is an excellent serve returner, but Williams is no slouch in that department, either. When Sharapova steps up to the service notch to commence her 22-minute pre-serve ritual, this little bitty voice in her head will whisper, "There's no way you get this in the box, girl. She's whupped you 15 consecutive times, girl."

3. Sharapova is an entrepreneur who created and markets a sugar-laden, gummy bear-like candy called "Sugarpova." The target audience appears to be ladies who are fabulous, or want to appear fabulous, and are willing to shell out nine bucks for a small bag of these confections at cute little "boutique" spaces to prove it.

Williams (with her sister Venus) is part owner of the Miami Dolphins football team. Her target audience is that vast swath of Americans who play or love sports, and the only time they're going to get taken for nine bucks is if they get an overpowering urge to inhale a hot dog at a concession stand in Sun Life Stadium.

Draw your own conclusions.

4. Williams will not allow Sharapova to rule the fat center of the court. Sharapova, the No. 2 seed has perfected the art of tagging the big serve or return, stepping into the court and walloping an inside-out forehand to get a point started, or ended before it's properly started. But Williams usually returns well enough to drive Sharapova back. Plus, she can hit with enough pace, and exploit enough angle, to keep Sharapova from imposing her beloved pattern.

5. The company you keep can have an enormous influence on your outlook and performance. Sharapova is known for gal-paling around with debauchee television personality Chelsea Handler. Williams is BFFs with two-time year-end WTA No. 1 Caroline Wozniacki, who recently ran the New York marathon in an impressive 3 hours, 26 minutes. The only place Handler has been known to run is to the bar at the Chateau Marmont. At press time I could still not confirm the rumor that Handler will be warming Sharapova up for her match.

6. While Sharapova's on-court movement has improved by leaps and bounds -- hence her success at the French Open -- she is still not particularly adept at playing defense. At least not against a player who can bring power as well as placement to the mix and force Sharapova off balance.

As a player whose game is conspicuously studied, Sharapova is at her best when she can execute set pieces like that fruitful, ad-court combination of big serve followed by an inside-out forehand and, if necessary, the cross-court forehand placement (or some variation thereof). Unlike less explosive rivals, Williams has always been able to deny Sharapova the haven of those set pieces.

So there you have it. Keep the volume down on your television once this match begins, or a neighbor just might call the police and report that a woman is screaming and likely being murdered right next door.

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