The new year is always energizing for its possibilities and its clean slate but also for its ability to provide perspective for the previous year.
As the Australian Open approaches, it is once again time to take stock of a few players and determine if they are 2015 game-changers worth a buy, if they've reached their peak or if they should be held for another year.
BUY
1. Kei Nishikori, Japan
2014 year-end ranking: 5
2013 year-end rank: 17
2012 year-end rank: 19
The year the world has been waiting for from Nishikori arrived in 2014. He made his first Grand Slam final at the US Open and reached a career-best fifth. He also played in the World Tour Finals and sent the message that he may not be the strongest guy physically but he plans to spend more time holding trophies than being held up by crutches. It is high, dangerous praise for a player who has so many points to defend (he reached six finals and won four titles) and a history of fragility, but the impressive part of Nishikori's game was how well he played against his new rivals (he beat Milos Raonic three of four times in 2014) and how he stood in against elite endurance guys, punishers like David Ferrer (5-0 against him in 2014), Andy Murray (beat him at the Tour Finals) and Novak Djokovic (1-3 on the year, but the victory was in the US Open semifinals). Nishikori also beat Roger Federer at the Miami Masters and played Rafael Nadal to a standstill in the Madrid final before injury forced his retirement.
If Nishikori can compete against Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray as he did a year ago, there is no one on tour to fear. Nishikori has a chance to be the new Ferrer with more power. It is no small component, but a better serve stands between him and a major title. The rest Nishikori has proved he can handle.
2. Andy Murray, Great Britain
Current ranking: 6
2013 year-end rank: 4
2012 year-end rank: 3
It doesn't feel as though Murray deserves a "buy" rating because he has so little room to improve. He has two majors and is already a Hall of Fame-level player. He also played Barclays and made the second week in every Slam last year. Still, Murray seemed to drift for a moment with a bad back and the levity of having won two Slams, including Wimbledon. He fell to 10th in the rankings and required a furious post-Flushing push to reach the Barclays. Two losses to Grigor Dimitrov, one to Raonic at Indian Wells and relatively tame losses to Federer in Melbourne, Nadal at Roland Garros and Djokovic in Miami and the US Open also suggested a shift in the order.
But Murray is not one to underestimate, and the way he finished 2014 suggested that Murray is again playing with an edge, expecting to return to his place in the quarters and beyond at majors but also as a very dangerous Masters 1000 player. (He has nine Masters titles.) Don't be too surprised if Murray is in a Slam final in 2015.
3. Nick Kyrgios, Australia
Current ranking: 50
2013 year-end rank: 182
2012 year-end rank: 838
How can betting on a 19-year-old fearless powerhouse who is built both for grass and hard court, has a brash, Monfils-with-attitude demeanor and who beat Nadal at Wimbledon be a risky buy? Because back issues might suggest a slow start to 2015. Since reaching the Wimbledon quarters, Kyrgios has played just three tournaments and six matches, but he has enormous potential. His health is the biggest question mark to a big future. Kyrgios is another power server in the mold of Marin Cilic, Kevin Anderson and Raonic but is a better pure athlete than each of them. At 6-foot-4, he's the perfect height for today's tennis player, big enough to produce massive power but not too tall to be an effective returner. Despite the drawbacks of injury and a low return percentage (14 percent return games won is woeful Isner/Raonic big-man territory), Kyrgios has it all. Then again, so did Jerzy Janowicz after beating Murray in the 2012 Paris Masters and reaching the Wimbledon semifinals the next year. Still, Kyrgios is worth watching.
SELL
1. David Ferrer, Spain
Current ranking: 10
2013 year-end rank 3
2012 year-end rank 5
Is this how it ends for one of the grittiest, toughest players on tour? By finally being unable to compensate with fight for what he has always lacked in power and tools? So much of tennis is focus and concentration, tenacity and belief, and Ferrer has possessed boatloads of each to accompany a serious but underpowered game. His tenacity broke more gifted players, his endurance shattering their belief. But Ferrer will be 33 in April, and in 2014 all of the Ferrer gifts were being siphoned off by age.
The result was all of what Ferrer didn't do so well (holding serve, for example, keeping short points alive with hustle) were exposed in 2014. The heartbreak of being Ferrer grew more painful, unable to compete or finish matches against the big players (see his 5-13 lifetime against Djokovic and 0-16 versus Federer; his 4-6, 6-4, 6-0, 6-1 quarterfinal loss to Nadal at Roland Garros; and consecutive marathons with Andy Murray in the Vienna final and Valencia).
Ferrer has always climbed uphill both ways against the top tier. The new part was being overpowered by the rest of the field more frequently. Ferrer left it on the court during a terrific four-year stretch in which he won at least 60 matches a year from 2010 to 2013 and reached a career-high third. In 2014, the wear finally showed, and the younger legs and bigger bodies began to overcome him. Nishikori beat him three times, and the Spaniard also suffered surprising losses to Leonardo Mayer, Randy Lu Teymuraz Gabashvili and Andrey Kuznetsov .
Ferrer is still a tremendous competitor, and his fans will always have 2012 and 2013, reaching at least the quarters in every major both years, but with the Dimitrovs and Raonics and Nishikoris now asserting themselves and his rank dipping below No. 8, the second week is now going to be a real challenge to a great tennis warrior.
2. Richard Gasquet, France
Current ranking: 26
2013 year-end rank 9
2012 year-end rank 10
Was it age? The rankings slide from the artful Frenchman or the eye test in which he flailed where he used to flourish, with whispers that turned to bellows that turned to walkovers? It was all of the above.
Gasquet, who will be 29 in June, was hurting for much of 2014 with a bad back, and when he was healthy, it was a stretch for him to fight the big boys. Now the young guns are here and Gasquet, a skillful middleweight, has an even greater climb.
He was always in trouble against the top guys: 1-11 versus Djokovic, 2-12 versus Federer and 1-13 versus Nadal (that's 4-36 against those legends). But in 2014, Gasquet was being routed by his peer group, the Verdascos and Gulbises. Part of it was injury, but a lot of it was slippage.
3. Roberto Bautista Agut, Spain
Current ranking: 15
2013 year-end rank: 59
2012 year-end rank: 80
Other than being born with a certain level of talent, Bautista Agut has done nothing wrong to merit a "sell" rating. In 2014, he beat big guys at big tournaments -- Juan Martin del Potro at the Australian Open, Tomas Berdych at Indian Wells, Tommy Robredo in Madrid. Bautista Agut won a career-high 44 tour matches and made three finals, winning Den Bosch on grass and Stuttgart on clay. He didn't reach the second week in any of the Slams but lost to Dimitrov in Melbourne, Berdych in Paris, Murray at Wimbledon and Federer at the US Open. Tough to complain there.
But -- like Janko Tipsarevic and Juan Monaco before him and Gasquet now -- it is hard to envision Bautista Agut climbing any higher. He is more of a hold, a guy who can maintain his place from 13 to 20 all year and win a couple of rounds at majors because there are a handful of players far better, a bunch of players he's superior to and a small glut of guys like Fabio Fognini, Robredo, Kevin Anderson and Philipp Kohlschreiber in the same talent space he is in. There's room for that player, but that next leap from 15 into the top 10 seems a long shot.
HOLD
1. Tomas Berdych, Czech Republic
Current ranking: 6
2013 year-end rank: 7
2012 year-end rank: 6
Why not? No one holds their position better than Berdych, who lost to Nadal in the 2010 Wimbledon final. He hasn't been back to a Slam final or won a Masters 1000 since his first in the Paris Indoors 10 years ago, yet he has finished every year since 2010 no lower than seventh.
Maybe this is the year, like Ferrer last year, in which the wolves knocking at the door finally devour Berdych's ranking. But that would be to accept the dangerous premise that the great 2014 seasons of Dimitrov, Marin Cilic, Nishikori and Raonic will all continue upward. Everyone should know better.
Maybe a hold is frustrating for Berdych fans who have been waiting for the breakthrough that never comes, but as was apparent with Ferrer with the men and Caroline Wozniacki,and Agnieszka Radwanska on the women's side, there is value being a consistent top-10, second-week performer, even without ever holding up the winner's hardware.
2. Marin Cilic, Croatia
Current ranking: 9
2013 year-end rank: 37
2012 year-end rank: 15
Quite a 12-month period for the mercurial Cilic, who has been a favorite of big-man tennis years before breaking through in September at the US Open. It was a title somewhat muted (and should have been more so) by his suspension for using performance-enhancing drugs, but when Cilic destroyed Federer on Ashe in the semifinals, then manhandled Nishikori with a weekend of power serving, the Croat earned his title.
Now Cilic has it all: Grand Slam champion, top-10 ranking and a first appearance at the Barclay's World Tour Finals. He won't turn 27 until late September. So why the "hold" instead of a "buy"?
First, Cilic was spectacular in New York and that should give him the kind of confidence Stan Wawrinka now carries. Cilic now knows he can win and that the second week of a major is where he belongs, but the season is a long one and playing as a 1-2 seed each week requires adjustment.
Second, it should be noted that of the three non-Big Three players before Cilic to win a Slam -- Murray, Juan Martin del Potro and Wawrinka -- only Murray won a second or even got back to a final.
But Cilic's quest if going to have to wait. Earlier this week, he withdrew from the Aussie, citing an injured right shoulder.
3. Jack Sock, USA
Current ranking: 42
2013 year-end rank: 104
2012 year-end rank: 150
If it seems like a hedge, or worse, a cop-out to hold a player ranked 42nd in the world, it is hard to argue that it isn't. Sock has major, major tools, enough to give most players pause. He lost to Raonic five times in 2014 on three surfaces (grass, hard court and indoors at the Paris Masters) but beat a wearying Nishikori in Shanghai, John Isner in Newport and Alexandr Dolgopolov in Tokyo.
The question for Sock is, after beating the Bryan brothers for the Wimbledon title and also winning the Cincinnati Masters with partner Vasek Pospisil, will he fancy himself a doubles specialist? It was a suspicion that increased when down a set in the first round of the US Open to Pablo Andujar, Sock retired before the fourth and saved himself for doubles.
Sock is a big talent who can go either way. Maybe he's a doubles man in the mold of a Marcel Granollers, Ivan Dodig or Radek Stepanek -- players with great lives, good money and little pressure. Still, it seems early to cut bait on a 24-year-old with a 140 mph serve, huge forehand and athleticism even when his focus and results don't quite merit banking on a huge leap toward the second week of the majors in 2015.