Buzz: Why Woz should reach the final

NEW YORK -- The round of 16 in the bottom half of the women's draw featured a 17-year-old from Switzerland who had never lost a US Open match, a Chinese player who matched her best Grand Slam effort and a qualifier who returned to the second week of a major for the first time in 15 years.

Three of the top four seeds in the bracket are missing in action because they were beaten by these highly unusual suspects in straight sets:

• Belinda Bencic defeated No. 6 Angelique Kerber in the third round.
• Peng Shuai took down No. 4 Agnieszka Radwanska in the second.
• Mirjana Lucic-Baroni, in the upset of the tournament, stunned No. 2 Simona Halep in the third.

It's the first Grand Slam since the 2011 US Open that five of the top eight seeds failed to reach the second week. When Caroline Wozniacki took out No. 5 seed Maria Sharapova 6-4, 2-6, 6-2 on Sunday, it was six of eight before the quarterfinals.

When Lucic-Baroni, a 32-year-old from Croatia, was asked after her victory over Halep to sum up her personal journey, she began to cry.

"Sorry," she sniffed. "It's been really hard. After so many years to be here again, it's incredible. I wanted this so bad. So many times I would get to a place where I could do it. Then I wanted it so bad that I'm kind of burned out.

"And I apologize again. Yeah, I'm so happy."

No worries, Mirjana. You and your overlooked colleagues threw some excitement into the bottom half, which prompted our Baseline Buzz crew to wonder aloud: Who on earth is going to emerge from that bottom half to play, presumably, Serena Williams in the final? ESPN.com tennis editor Matt Wilansky and senior writer Greg Garber kick it around:

Greg Garber: I will state the obvious and say that Wozniacki has the best chance of getting through to a date with Serena. She played fantastic tennis in beating Sharapova -- even if her groundstrokes were, what, 15 or 20 mph slower. Since reaching the quarterfinals at the Australian Open in 2012, Wozniacki has gone 0-for-10 trying to return to the final eight. She was emotional in her on-court interview, and I think that will carry her forward.

Matt Wilansky: As she should be after her very public breakup a few months ago. If Wozniacki does win, don't expect to hear any Rory references in her trophy-winning acceptance speech. Perhaps we should have seen this coming, though. This is the second straight Slam in which only two of the top eight seeds remained after the fourth round. At Wimbledon, only Halep and Petra Kvitova withstood the chaos. Kind of ironic that it's one of the most consistent players in the game in Wozniacki who is largely responsible for the volatility atop the tour.

Greg Garber: If you're looking for someone with championship experience, you could do worse than Sara Errani. She is the No. 13 seed, and I'm sure you remember her run to the French Open final two years ago. She also reached the semifinals here later that year and again in 2013 at Roland Garros. Errani sent Lucic-Baroni home with an emphatic 6-0 count in the third set. She could give Wozniacki a go in the quarterfinals.

Matt Wilansky: Errani is a tough one to figure out. Since reaching the final in Paris, she has lost in the first or second round of a major five times. And that's in 10 attempts. The reality is that safely navigating the perils of a Grand Slam draw is one of the hardest things to do in sports, save hitting a baseball or winning the Tour de France without artificial help. But still, Errani's inconsistency for someone at her level is a little puzzling. Personally, I could see Jelena Jankovic (speaking of inconsistency) emerging. The 2008 runner-up here hasn't dropped a set heading into her match against Bencic later Sunday.

Greg Garber: Even with all the youngsters making an early impression, this Open does have a kind of retro feel to it. Wozniacki has been playing well again, reminiscent of the 67 weeks that she was the WTA's No. 1-ranked player. Jankovic, believe it or not, had a briefer reign in 2008 -- one week at the top. It's good to see her hitting the ball well again. She's had a friendly draw unfold in front of her; Kerber and Sloane Stephens were both eliminated before she could play them.

Matt Wilansky: Three years ago, when the decimation of the women's draw became the central theme here at the Open, all signs pointed to another Serena Williams title. But oddly enough, Sam Stosur ran the tables, which included a win in the final over Williams. After years of underachieving, no one really saw that coming. I suppose the same could be said of Wozniacki, who amazingly spent 173 weeks in the top 10 in her halcyon days on court.

Greg Garber: Wait, what? How long did it take you to figure that out? Seriously, Wozniacki should handle Errani next; she's beaten her two of three times -- but they haven't played in four years. I like Wozniacki's chances better than the other four women vying for the two quarterfinal berths -- Jankovic, Bencic, Peng and Lucie Safarova.

Matt Wilansky: About three or four seconds. Google is an amazing tool. I share your sentiments on Woz. Our colleague Jane McManus spoke to Wozniacki's father today, who said she's practicing with the same intensity as she did before you know who came into her life. After beating Sharapova, Woz said, "I'm serving well, I'm running well, I'm staying aggressive when I have to, and I make the right decisions at the right moment. And I enjoy playing." And not a single top-10 player would be in her way until the final.