The most difficult question in racing: So, who do you like in the Derby?
It is a question that will be posed countless times this week in various languages from Caribou, Maine, to San Diego; Hong Kong to Liverpool. It has always been America's race, but now, in the age of international simulcasting, the Kentucky Derby belongs to the world.
An answer is easy, the product of sound if fragile logic or flight of fancy; superior speed or pace figures, genetic suitability to 10 furlongs in May, a pretty or catchy name. The correct answer, however, is elusive. The best horse is always in a precarious position on the first Saturday of May. The right horse is often far from obvious until the race is decided and has become more difficult to isolate with the passage of time.
The modern-day thoroughbred itself, bred for speed rather than stamina, requires what amounts to a guess in the evaluation of a 3-year-old's potential to stay 10 furlongs.
More tools are brought to the table nowadays than ever before -- sophisticated measures of performance, speed early and late; replays of races run anywhere in the land; race-specific databases that are both searchable and sortable. In spite of all this, picking the Kentucky Derby winner has never been more difficult.
Obviously, a field of 20, both the maximum and the modern norm, complicates matters. The less-is-more approach now in vogue with horsemen provides an element of uncertainty. The modern-day thoroughbred itself, bred for speed rather than stamina, requires what amounts to a guess in the evaluation of a 3-year-old's potential to stay 10 furlongs. Several once-dogmatic rules of elimination have been exploded in the last decade or so, further confusing the issue.
The 138th Derby is no exception to the prevailing state of confusion. There is no standout, no daunting presence. The favorite will not be clearly determined until the betting pools are closed. The guess here is Union Rags. A handful of those expected to be entered -- Liaison, Optimizer, Prospective, Rousing Sermon, Sabercat, Done Talking -- are along for the ride and would be more effectively deployed elsewhere. It remains a mystery what outrageously misguided muse moved the connections of Trinniberg to consider this stage for their promising sprinter. Would it be a complete shock to find one or more of these in the superfecta? No. Still, if all make the 20-horse field, eliminating these from consideration leaves too many.
Who do you not like is a question more easily addressed.
Hansen is a good place to start.
Hansen, whose tail will remain white on Saturday following a comedy of errors when it was colored blue, then re-whitened before he ran in the Blue Grass Stakes, led at every call of the 2011 Breeders' Cup Juvenile to secure the divisional championship over this course. He is more likely to burn a good deal of money than earn any on Saturday, however. Distance and pace conspire against a colt who has been twice defeated in three starts this year while victorious only in the Gotham Stakes in New York, and, after the Blue Grass, nine furlongs appears to be beyond the end of his tether.
Bodemeister, whose resume lacks a start at age 2, is faster than Hansen. Trinniberg, who ran a quarter-mile in less than 21 seconds before collapsing in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint last fall at Churchill, is faster than both Hansen and Bodemeister. All three are confirmed front-runners, which will make an interesting six furlongs, but the Derby will be decided after the speed is toasted in the last half-mile.
This prospective scenario will draw many to the Dullahan bandwagon, but deep-closing form on synthetic ground often fails the translation to dirt. Dullahan is 0-for-3 on dirt and will likely extend his streak on Saturday.
Then, what to do with El Padrino? He followed a good race in the Risen Star Stakes in New Orleans with a disappointing one-paced effort in the Florida Derby, not the profile of a Kentucky Derby winner but a horse of substance nevertheless. Daddy Long Legs? He was at Churchill for the Breeders' Cup last fall and didn't finish until about Christmas. We've seen these European-raced, Dubai-prepped UAE Derby winners crash and burn here before. Pass.
Mark Valeski, another problem, was a narrowly beaten second in the Louisiana Derby, which was not a particularly strong race, and he may just be a cut below the best of these. Still, trainer Larry Jones is a dangerous guy and jockey Rosie Napravnik may either be underrated in a race of this stature or -- because those $2 bets made for reasons beyond accepted handicapping methods add up -- overbet because she's the only female rider in the field. While it is difficult to envision Mark Valeski as the Derby winner, it would be a good idea to include him in any vertical bet.
Went The Day Well, who wins for most oddly named Derby starter, also falls into this category. He has the late speed to be a factor, but, though he comes from the folks who brought us Animal Kingdom a year ago, is light on concrete credentials. His one stakes victory, the Spiral at Turfway, is not exactly a productive race in terms of producing Derby winners, but the effort, which came on a synthetic course, was solid by any measure.
These tickets are getting expensive.
Boiling this race down to a half-dozen may well not be enough, but based upon his two races this year, Union Rags appears to stand firm as the horse to beat.
Daddy Nose Best is yet another mystery who comes with dangerous connections and a win at Sunland Park that appears on paper to be solid enough to merit at least a background position in the frame. He is probably a cut below the best of these but not one who can be comfortably eliminated from consideration when building exotic tickets.
Six, in order of preference, remain: Union Rags, Creative Cause, Take Charge Indy, Alpha, Gemologist and I'll Have Another.
Creative Cause is better than his narrow defeat by I'll Have Another in the Santa Anita Derby would suggest, and an additional furlong may be the difference at Churchill. He has consistently put up strong late-pace figures and may very well have made the most of what was a prep for the more important assignment. Both Creative Cause and I'll Have Another, who has established the ability to stay on gamely and consistently, are contenders, with the edge to the Santa Anita runner-up.
Similarly, it is difficult to separate Alpha, Take Charge Indy, the Florida Derby winner, and undefeated Wood Memorial winner Gemologist.
Gemologist barely held off Alpha, who was severely compromised in traffic when they met in New York, a race that could easily have gone the other way and solid efforts by both. While it is difficult to fault a colt who is 5-for-5, Alpha, who has an outstanding pedigree that may in time translate to grass, appears better suited to the added ground than Gemologist.
The progressive Take Charge Indy is every bit as good as these at this point and is a work in progress. He is among the most versatile horses in the field and will only benefit from the presence of Calvin Borel in the saddle on Derby day.
Boiling this race down to a half-dozen may well not be enough, but based upon his two races this year, Union Rags appears to stand firm as the horse to beat.
He is not without vulnerability, which became evident in the Florida Derby following a lights-out score in the Fountain of Youth. Confronted with traffic in his last, he lacked the turn of foot that compensates for delay, and he apparently needs a clear trip if he is to be successful, seldom easy in a field of 20. An additional furlong may compensate for delay if he is held up in traffic, but he has the most late speed in this field. Effective utilization of that advantage is the key.
Or, maybe not.
It is, after all, the Kentucky Derby.
Paul Moran is a two-time winner of the Media Eclipse Award and has received various honors from the National Association of Newspaper Editors, Society of Silurians, Long Island Press Club and Long Island Veterinary Medical Association. He also has been given the Red Smith Award for his coverage of the Kentucky Derby. Paul can be contacted at pmoran1686@aol.com.