LAS VEGAS -- My "Tuley's Take" NFL column makes an early appearance during this holiday week.
I'm certainly thankful at this time of year for the way the underdogs have been barking lately in the NFL. For the season, underdogs are 83-64-8 ATS (56.5 percent) and I improved to 35-30-3 ATS (53 percent) as I followed up my 6-1 ATS record in Week 10 with a 3-2 ATS mark in Week 11.
Here are the overall betting stats from last week and for the season heading into Week 12:
Week 11 betting results:
Home: 8-6 SU, 5-6-3 ATS
Favorites: 9-4 SU, 5-5-3 ATS (no fave in GB-MIN as closed consensus pick-'em)
Home 'dogs: 2-3 SU, 2-2-1 ATS
Double-digit 'dogs: 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS
Over/unders: 5-9
Season to date through Week 11:
Home: 86-71 SU, 69-81-7 ATS (doesn't include 3 London games)
Favorites: 94-61 SU, 64-83-8 ATS (doesn't include 5 pick-'ems)
Home 'dogs: 21-30 SU, 27-22-2 ATS
Double-digit 'dogs: 2-8 SU, 5-5 ATS
Over/unders: 75-78-7
It's back to the betting board with the full Week 12 card. We'll take our normal look at how the public is viewing each matchup and what the wiseguys are thinking, and then I'll give my take on each game with either a side or total I like or at least a recommendation for a "pool play" if I don't like the game that much. Best bets will be marked with an asterisk (*) and those are the ones we grade as official plays.
Last week: 3-2 ATS on sides, 1-3 on over/unders
Season: 35-30-3 ATS on sides, 19-24 on over/unders
Note: The listed spread for each game is from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of early Wednesday morning. The public consensus pick percentages are from ESPN Insider's NFL PickCenter, also as of Wednesday morning.
New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans
Spread: Texans -3
Public consensus pick: 56 percent picked Texans
Public perception: These teams are seemingly headed in opposite directions, so it's not surprising the public is on the Texans over the usually more popular Saints. Things got so bad in New Orleans that defensive coordinator Rob Ryan was fired during the bye week. It's also expected that Houston QB Brian Hoyer will be back.