LAS VEGAS -- Now that's more like it.
Last week, I wrote how there are usually a lot of inflated lines this time of year in the NFL, with teams heading to the playoffs and the public looking to bet against teams they perceive as "throwing in the towel." I was disappointed with my 3-5-1 ATS record in Week 15, but that turned around in Week 16 as I went 5-1, hitting my first five plays (Minnesota, Chicago, New York Jets, New York Giants, Oakland) before losing with Arizona on Sunday night.
Overall, underdogs were 11-5 ATS in Week 16. I wish I had posted more of them than I ended up playing, but that's OK. Dogs have taken a 118-112-5 (51.3 percent) lead on the season heading into Week 17.
Since I usually post the updated NFL betting stats in my "Tuesdays With Tuley" column (not running this holiday week), here is the rundown for Week 16, as well as the season-long records for some of the betting trends I follow using my ViewFromVegas consensus closing lines:
Week 16 recap
Home: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS
Favorites: 9-7 SU, 5-11 ATS
Home 'dogs: 4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS
Double-digit 'dogs: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS
Over/unders: 6-9-1
Season to date through Week 16
Home: 136-99-1 SU, 115-116-5 ATS (three in London, one Buffalo non-home game)
Favorites: 157-77-1 SU, 112-118-5 ATS (five pick 'em)
Home 'dogs: 26-47 SU, 37-35-1 ATS
Double-digit 'dogs: 1-20 SU, 9-11-1 ATS
Over/unders: 113-125-2
Now, Week 17 is often a crazy week, but there are again several games in which the lines are inflated a little with a lot of people assuming that teams in "must-win" situations will roll to easy wins. But remember that just because a team must win doesn't mean it will win. I've often said that if a team was able to flip the switch and win when it wanted to or needed to, it would've done it earlier in the year and not put itself in its current situation. We'll see how that theory tests out this week, as we try to get back to .500 overall before the playoffs.
Since this piece is being published earlier in the week due to the holiday, we're going with the lines from early Wednesday morning. We'll grade against those lines, though I'll be back in the comment sections at the bottom of this piece during the course of the week (as well as Friday's SportsNation chat) and this weekend to discuss any relevant changes.
Last week: 5-1 ATS | 2014 season record: 54-57-1 ATS (48.6 percent)
Note: The listed spread for each game is from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Wednesday morning (Westgate is the new owner of the LVH Hotel, which was formerly known at the Hilton, but the SuperBook name lives on). The public consensus pick percentages are from ESPN PickCenter, also as of Wednesday morning.
Matchup: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Spread: Packers -7.5
Public consensus pick: 66 percent picked Packers
Public perception: This is for the NFC North title (and a first-round bye), and the public is siding with the homestanding and very public Packers as usual. Given the choice between offense and defense, the public usually sides with offense.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps snapped up the few minus-7's that were available early Monday in Vegas. At 7.5, wiseguys are mostly looking Lions or passing, though the Packers will be a very popular teaser play from sharps and squares alike.
Tuley's Take: In such an important game, I'll take the team with the better