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How Vegas experts view TEN-JAC

Tennessee and Jacksonville square off in a divisional battle on Thursday night. Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

Eight hundred and 10 days ago, Blaine Gabbert was the Jacksonville Jaguars' starting quarterback. Brandon Weeden, Josh Freeman and Kevin Kolb were starting in the NFL. The Sixers, Lakers, Celtics and Knicks were coming off of a shortened NBA season in which they all finished above .500. It was a pretty long time ago.

This 810-day span I'm referring to is how long it's been since the Jaguars were listed as a favorite in a regular-season game. It was Sept. 30, 2012, at home against the Cincinnati Bengals. Since Week 4 of 2012, 95 different quarterbacks have attempted a pass in the NFL, including three Jaguars: Gabbert, Chad Henne and Blake Bortles.

This isn't the only momentous fact to note for the Thursday night game this week. The Tennessee Titans are 0-13 straight up as an underdog against AFC South foes in the past five seasons, while Jacksonville is 6-2 SU and against the spread as a favorite overall in that span.

There are a number of key defensive categories in which Jacksonville has the advantage over Tennessee, and they will all have a big impact in this game. The Jaguars are better against the run than the Titans (in both yards per rush and rushing yards per game). Jacksonville is better on third-down defense than Tennessee and, strangely enough, the Jaguars are actually the No. 3 team in the NFL in terms of red zone efficiency on defense.

According to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, the public is backing the Jaguars at a staggering clip of 75 percent at the line of Jacksonville minus-3.5, as of late Wednesday.

Let's get some analysis of the line from Jay Kornegay of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, a pick on the game from four wiseguys and some analysis on prop bets from John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information.


Matchup: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Opened Jacksonville -3; now Jacksonville -3.5
Total: Opened 40.5; now 40.5