LAS VEGAS -- With two weeks left in the 2014 NFL regular season, sports bettors are doing exactly what we're doing at the Tuesdays With Tuley headquarters: checking on the status of over/under season win total wagers.
A lot of times these bets come down to the final week or two, and a lot of bettors like to hedge their bets to lock up a profit after tying up their money for more than four months. There's certainly going to be plenty of that going on, but out of the 32 teams, 21 have already clinched either the over or the under. (Note: The numbers below are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook at the start of the season, so some numbers vary especially from earlier in the spring and summer, but these are pretty close to the industry standard.)
As you can see, nine teams have exceeded their win total while 12 aren't even within two of reaching theirs. The Cardinals are already 3.5 wins over their number while the Bucs and Titans are five short of their numbers.
2014 NFL Season Win Totals
Over/under courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas
The most frequent question I get every year about over/under season win totals is if you can cash tickets that are already "clinched" -- and the answer is no. Sports betting rules on these wagers specify that all 16 games must be played for action, so we can't cash them early for extra holiday money.
One only need look at the Bills-Jets game from Week 12 to realize that a postponement isn't out of the question (note: in college football, all bets on Florida were voided when its game vs. Idaho was canceled and not rescheduled), so take this as a reminder never to tear up "losing" tickets until the schedule is officially completed.
The second-most asked question regarding over/under bets has to do with games that end in a tie. No, they don't count as half a win, so even though Cincinnati's over/under win total was 9 and the Bengals are 9-4-1, they still haven't gone over and need an outright victory in one of their final two games.
Here are the 11 teams whose over/under results are still undecided (though note that in addition to the Bengals, the Chiefs, Vikings, Eagles and Chargers have reached their total and can't finish under even if they lose out):
2014 NFL Season Win Totals
Over/under courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas
Q&A
This column was created to be interactive (like we're having a sports betting conversation among friends), so each week we ask for reader questions, either in the comments below or on Twitter (@ViewFromVegas) as well as on our weekly Spreecast (Thursdays, 3:30 p.m. ET) and chats (Fridays, 1 p.m. ET).
Jeff A. from "The North" (Friday's SportsNation chat)
Q: Nice work on the Cards last night. While some people like to compare their bets to the closing line, I definitely agree with you that getting significantly more points than the Westgate look-ahead line is a strong indicator that the number is inflated due to the public overreacting to recent events.
A: Thanks. I try to mention those look-ahead lines whenever relevant as I do think they're a great tool. But they are just a tool. There are certainly times when a line move is warranted. It's up to us to figure out when it is and when it isn't. I still don't get why so many people steamed the Rams (and against the Cardinals), but I'm glad they did.
Ralston D. from San Marcos (Friday's SportsNation chat)
Q: With the misappropriation of "Vegas" to now include bookmakers, merry bands of touts and entire marketplaces, do you foresee its place in language taking on any further significance?
A: I think it's been used that way for years, whether intentionally or not. With social media, maybe it's reaching a wider audience. It can be misleading, though, as when someone says that "Vegas" says something, there can certainly be differences of opinion; it's not unanimous. The same thing with "wiseguys" or "sharps"; heck, even "public" and "squares" often are used to throw an umbrella over a whole group. We try our best to distinguish these differences.
Sportsbook news and notes
This section will be where I clean out my reporter's notebook (and hopefully items relevant to sports betting aficionados):
• As mentioned in the Opening Line Report on Monday, unders were dominating Week 15 at 12-3, and the Saints-Bears Monday night game stayed under as well to make it 13-3. That makes unders 116-107-1 (52 percent) on the season. I've written a lot about how overs in prime-time games (Thursday/Sunday/Monday night) were red-hot at the start of the season as they were 24-5 through Week 9, but that has regressed to the mean at 9-9 since and 33-14 overall. It's interesting to note that if you remove those games, unders in traditional Sunday afternoon games are 102-74-1 (58 percent).
Favorites went 8-7-1 ATS in Week 15 and are back to .500 overall at 107-107-5 ATS. All stats are taken from the ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Lines posted in the forums at VFV and on Twitter @ViewFromVegas. Road teams were 10-5-1 ATS in Week 15, and home underdogs really suffered from that at 1-4 ATS.
Week 15 betting recap
Home: 9-7 SU, 5-10-1 ATS
Favorites: 12-4 SU, 8-7-1 ATS
Home 'dogs: 1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS
Double-digit 'dogs: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS
Over/unders: 3-13
Season to date through Week 15
Home: 127-92-1 SU, 106-109-5 ATS (three London, one Buffalo non-home game)
Favorites: 148-70-1 SU, 107-107-5 ATS (five pick 'em)
Home 'dogs: 22-43 SU, 31-33-1 ATS
Double-digit 'dogs: 1-18 SU, 8-10-1 ATS
Over/unders: 107-116-1
• The SuperContestant using the alias CH Ballers went 4-0-1 ATS in Week 15 and is 57-17-1 ATS (77 percent) with 57.5 points (wins count as 1 point; pushes worth half a point). CH Ballers has a 3.5-point lead over General TSO (54) and another 1.5-point gap to DSHOT702 (52.5). With two weeks and 10 picks to go, CH Ballers is closing in on Sans Souci's record-setting 2011 season of 58-22-5 ATS (72.5 percent and 60.5 points). There were a record 1,403 entrants this season at $1,500 apiece, and first prize is worth $736,575.
• Check out the ESPN Chalk section for comprehensive betting coverage of the college bowl season that kicks off this weekend, including a big college football bowl betting guide Wednesday. If you're missing out on the added content behind the ESPN Insider paywall, please note that a six-month subscription is 50 percent off and includes a six-month subscription to ESPN The Magazine.
Until next Tuesday, happy handicapping!