Tuley's Take: Week 12 ATS picks

LAS VEGAS -- The biggest NFL betting news Thursday -- at least until Oakland's first win of the year, 24-20 as a 7-point home underdog and plus-300 on the money line -- was the New York Jets-Buffalo Bills game being postponed Sunday and moved to Monday night in Detroit.

The game was pulled off the betting boards, and the standard "Vegas rules" stipulate that a game must be played on the date scheduled and at the originally scheduled site, so all bets were considered "no action" and subject to refunds. Parlays and teasers reduce by a game (note: check your own book's house rules to make sure they handle these situations the same).

The game was moved to Ford Field in Detroit at 7 p.m. ET Monday.

Now, we talk a lot in this weekly column about contests because, while a lot of people are betting these games, a lot of other people are entering office pools or contests as well. For those involved in those, certainly double-check your rules on how they're handing the Jets-Bills game.

As for the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, games are valid regardless of venue as long as they take place by Tuesday (note: this was changed after the 2010 season when a Minnesota-Philadelphia game had to be played on a Tuesday because of blizzard). The SuperContest lines are posted on Wednesday afternoons, so that line was locked in at Buffalo minus-4.5.

I was going to make the New York Jets plus-4.5 one of my top plays this week, but in this column we go against the current lines as of late Thursday night/early Friday morning, so let's take a look at the Sunday/Monday card like we always do with a look at how the public and wiseguys are viewing each game, and then I'll give my take.

Here are my selections for the Week 12 NFL card:

Last week: 5-2 ATS | 2014 season record: 33-41 ATS (44.6 percent)

Streak for the Cash: I'm no longer eligible to play ESPN.com's Streak for the Cash contest, but they've asked me to suggest some plays. This is different from picking games against the spread -- they mostly have you pick games straight up, and the games are closer to pick 'em -- but it's all about win percentages/odds, so I'll tackle those at the end of the column.

Note: The listed spread for each game is from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday night (Westgate is the new owner of the LVH Hotel, which was formerly known as the Hilton, but the SuperBook name lives on). The public consensus pick percentages are from ESPN PickCenter, also as of Thursday night.

Matchup: Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Falcons -3 (-120)
Public consensus pick: 52 percent picked Falcons

Public perception: The Falcons are in first place in NFC South (tiebreaker over Saints) while the Browns fell out of first in the AFC North, so it looks like the public is giving a slight edge to Atlanta. This would probably flip if the line goes to 3.5. There are plenty of people who are backing the Browns because Josh Gordon is back from his suspension.

Wiseguys' view: Sharps usually like the Falcons as a home favorite under Matt Ryan (Evan Abrams of ESPN Stats & Info passes on that they're 29-20 ATS in the role since he arrived, including 4-1 ATS against an over .500 team, including the playoffs) and bet them at lower numbers and at minus-3 flat (that means minus-110 both ways).

Tuley's Take: The Falcons have won two straight,