Dave Tuley, ESPN Staff Writer 9y

Tuley's Take: Week 9 ATS picks

NFL

LAS VEGAS -- Handicapping and betting are tied together, but they're two different processes. We try to take everything into consideration when breaking down the games (or the horse races) and come up with the best possible plays, but then it's another step -- in my case here, to post them for public consumption, or actually put down hard-earned cash on those opinions.

Now, I've failed in that decision-making step when posting plays here this season. I detailed in my Tuesdays With Tuley column how I've fared better in the colleges as well as the MLB playoffs, but no one seeing just my NFL plays wants to hear that. I've had a lot of time to think about where I've gone wrong this NFL season, and I think I had an epiphany while handicapping the Breeders' Cup races that are being run this weekend.

I've had a lot of success over the years hitting long shots in the Breeders' Cup races and a lot of people here in Vegas still think of me more as a horseplayer than a sports bettor, though I've always done better overall at sports. The past couple of Breeders' Cups have been OK, but I haven't hit as many bombs as I used to and one reason I think is that I got more conservative and tried for "safer" long shots instead of really swinging for the fences. That leads to a lower winning percentage, but much bigger payoffs when I'm right.

And I believe I see something similar with my NFL picks. I've had my best success in the past when I've been more contrarian. There were three games last week that in the past, I would have been all over the underdogs, but I think I got alligator arms (Carolina, Pittsburgh and Washington).

So I made the conscious effort this week to stick to my handicapping and if I think an underdog is getting enough points to make it a value play, I'll go for it. Even if it means taking the Jaguars again!

Here are my Week 9 selections for the NFL card:

Last week: 3-5 ATS | 2014 season record: 22-31 ATS (41.5 percent)

Streak for the Cash: I'm no longer eligible to play ESPN.com's Streak for the Cash contest, but they've asked me to suggest some plays. This is different from picking games against the spread -- they mostly have you pick games straight up, and the games are closer to pick 'em -- but it's all about win percentages/odds, so I'll tackle those at the end of the column.

Note: The listed spread for each game is from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday night (Westgate is the new owner of the LVH Hotel, which was formerly known at the Hilton, but the SuperBook name lives on). The public consensus pick percentages are from ESPN PickCenter, also as of Thursday night.


Matchup: San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Dolphins minus-2.5
Public consensus pick: 79 percent picked Chargers

Public perception: The public is all over San Diego, as the Chargers are still regarded as the better team after their fast start. Miami has back-to-back wins over Chicago and Jacksonville but that's not enough to get the public on the Dolphins' bandwagon.

Wiseguys' view: There has been definite sharp money coming in on the Dolphins as this line has been rising despite the lopsided amount of tickets on the underdog (unless some of these are trying to drive the line to 3 and then bet back the Chargers for a bigger amount). Regardless, San Diego will be one of the more popular underdog teasers this week.

Tuley's Take: Here's a game where

^ Back to Top ^