An undefeated, flashy giant of a horse sits atop ESPN.com's first Kentucky Derby Power Rankings of the year. And Dortmund, who'll next race on March 7, isn't just the leader in this first poll; he's also the most intriguing and exciting racehorse in the country.
Many of the youngsters on the road to the Kentucky Derby haven't proven themselves and so they've left unanswered the large and compelling question of talent. Do they have the requisite talent? But the question that follows Dortmund to the racetrack every morning isn't so much about talent as potential. Unbeaten in four races, including two stakes, he's already proven he's plenty good. The exciting question is this: How good could he become?
That's what the next few months are all about, answering such questions. Many horses are good enough to win races, and some good enough to win stakes, but only a few can inspire the wildest of dreams. In Dortmund's case, the answer to the question about potential is that he could become good enough to put horse racing back on the cover of popular culture magazines, charismatic enough to inspire people to carry a banner advocating his presidential candidacy and popular enough for a song, a dance and a million tweets. Yes, he's the sort of horse that inspires dreams, and this is the dreaming season.
A rufous-red chestnut colt, Dortmund stands just over 17 hands tall and weighs 1,280 pounds, according to his Hall of Fame trainer, Bob Baffert, who explained that the colt recently went through "a little growth spurt," as if anything about this horse could be little. Remember how Shaquille O'Neal made everybody else look like an Oompa Loompa whenever he walked onto a basketball court? That's what happens in the post parade when Dortmund steps onto the track. But viewed by himself, in isolation, it's possible to underestimate the colt's size because he's more athletic than massive, and he has a stride from here to Mars. Dortmund, in other words, could be very special. He could even be special enough to answer a 37-year-old question.
And in his most recent outing, the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on Feb. 7, Dortmund showed he also possesses that amorphous quality that's undetectable except in competition but nevertheless essential: courageous determination. He stalked the early leader, moved to the lead approaching the second turn, lost the advantage at the top of the stretch and then fought back in the final furlong to win by a head over Firing Line. It was another 21-1/2 lengths back to the third horse, Rock Shandy.
Dortmund, Baffert said, will make his next start March 7 in the San Felipe Stakes, where he could take on stakes winners Ocho Ocho Ocho, Lord Nelson and Bolo.
"He's had some tough races, and so I was going to give him more time," Baffert said about Dortmund, "but he bounced out of that last race [the Lewis] so good and he's been training so well that we decided on the San Felipe. He looks better now than he did before the last race."
The second horse in the Power Rankings also comes from the Baffert barn: American Pharoah, the champion juvenile of 2014. After winning two stakes, he was forced to miss the Breeders' Cup Juvenile because of a foot problem. But he's preparing to return to competition March 14 in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Baffert said.
"He's a brilliant horse," Baffert said about American Pharoah, "and those kind come around quickly."
Three winners from the past weekend are also included in the initial Power Rankings' top 10: Itsaknockout, the winner by disqualification of Saturday's Fountain of Youth Stakes; Far Right, the late-charging winner of Sunday's Southwest Stakes; and Khozan, a dazzling allowance winner Sunday at Gulfstream Park.
Because he's largely unproven and so still something of a mystery, Khozan might be especially intriguing. He's a half-brother to the great Royal Delta, a two-time Breeders' Cup winner and three-time champion. From the stable of trainer Todd Pletcher, Khozan has won his two starts by a total of 16-1/2 lengths.
But because of his inexperience and despite his conspicuous talent, Khozan could face a steep challenge in getting to Kentucky. Unraced at 2, he made his debut Jan. 24. And no Kentucky Derby winner since Apollo in 1882 was unraced as a juvenile. Khozan, in other words, is racing upstream against a 133-year-old historical current. He never has raced around two turns and never in stakes company. Moreover, although he won comfortably Sunday, by more than 12 lengths, his clocking for the one-mile race, 1:38.05, was rather ordinary and the hapless horses behind him even more so. And although his half-sister was indisputably great, Khozan actually looks more like his half-brother, Empire Way, who won only once in a 12-race career. Khozan will remain a mystery until he faces some quality competition, and that's likely to happen March 28 in the Florida Derby.
The field for the Kentucky Derby, of course, is limited to 20 based on points accumulated through a series of designated preparatory races. Each of the last two years, the points-leader going into the Derby won the race: Orb in 2013 and California Chrome last year. But the question on many minds this time of year is how many points will be necessary to get into the Derby?
Could Texas Red, the Breeders' Cup winner who has only 12 Derby points, get into the field of 20 despite being sidelined with a foot problem? He's aimed at a return in the Santa Anita Derby. If he finishes, say, fourth there, he would earn another 10 points, and would that suffice? Probably. If Khozan finishes third in the Florida Derby, which would be good for 20 points, would that earn him a spot in the starting gate for the roseate run? Maybe.
It all depends on attrition. Last year, Commanding Curve was the 20th and final horse to get into the Derby field, and he had a relatively modest pile of 20 points. But six notables -- Toast of New York (100 points), Constitution (100), Midnight Hawk (52), Ring Weekend (50), Albano (34) and Cairo Prince (24) -- either missed the Derby because of injuries or just bypassed it. In 2013, injuries took an especially heavy toll, and Giant Finish got into the Derby field with just 10 points. But five prominent horses -- Flashback (70 points), Ive Struck A Nerve (51), Hear The Ghost (50), Violence (30) and Shanghai Bobby (24) -- all had setbacks that kept them from running, and 19 others that had more than 10 points didn't run for various reasons, including discretion.
And so on May 2 at Churchill Downs, how many points will be necessary for a horse to get into the field of 20 for the 141st Kentucky Derby? Well, frankly, if you have to ask, you probably shouldn't be thinking about running in the most famous of races.
1. Dortmund
The rufous-red giant has tactical speed and one of the longest strides on the racetrack. That's a formidable combination; that's the Daily Double most horsemen dream about. His sire, Big Brown, won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, and his trainer, Bob Baffert, has won nine Triple Crown races, including three Derbies. And there's some grit to go along with all this talent: After romping in his first two outings, he has won two stakes, the Los Alamitos Futurity and the Bob Lewis, in a photo finish. He'll make his next start March 7 in the San Felipe.
2. American Pharoah
Just two days before the race, American Pharoah was scratched from Breeders' Cup Juvenile because of a foot problem. But he had flashed such talent in his two victories, in the Frontrunner Stakes and the Del Mar Futurity, that he still was named the champion juvenile of 2014. His trainer, Bob Baffert, called American Pharoah the most talented 2-year-old he ever has trained. But what kind of 3-year-old will he be? For these horses on the road to the Kentucky Derby, their success all depends on their progress. How much better will they become with maturity and physical development? Some precocious horses improve little as 3-year-olds; some even outgrow their optimum biomechanical efficiency; and others take huge strides forward. If American Pharoah can develop the talent he displayed as a juvenile, he's going to set off some outrageous fireworks. He's training well, Baffert said, for his return March 14 in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park.
3. Carpe Diem
An uncommonly handsome colt, Carpe Diem finished second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile to conclude his 2014 campaign. The winner of the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland, he's another colt who seems to have it all. When he won his debut at Saratoga, he displayed scintillating speed, but the son of Giant's Causeway has a classic pedigree that insists he'll run as far as he'll ever need to. Since the first of the year, in preparation for his return, he has had six workouts in Florida, including three consecutive bullets at five-eighths of a mile. He's to make his seasonal debut March 7 in the Tampa Bay Derby.
4. Upstart
Last month, Upstart won the Holy Bull Stakes with a sensational effort, but then he regressed in Saturday's Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, where he finished first but was subsequently disqualified for interference in the stretch. Was it a dubious decision by the stewards? Should he have remained the winner? Actually, to look ahead to the Triple Crown, the larger question is whether he can regain his Holy Bull form. Even though finishing nearly three lengths ahead of Itsaknockout in the Fountain of Youth, Upstart regressed five or six lengths from his Holy Bull effort. On the other hand, the Gulfstream surface was unusually slow and tiring Saturday. So suddenly this rock-solid, charter member of the Derby vanguard has become something of an enigma. Will he maintain his Fountain of Youth form, allowing less precocious youngsters to catch up with him, could he even regress further, or will he recover his momentum and move forward? Then again, questions swirl around a young horse like moths around a bare lightbulb. Upstart will provide some answers March 28 in the Florida Derby.
5. Texas Red
When Texas Red rallied from far back to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he looked like the early Kentucky Derby favorite. A son of Afleet Alex, who won, of course, the Preakness and Belmont and probably should have won the Derby, Texas Red reinforced that early positive impression when he made an auspicous seasonal debut, rallying to finish second in the San Vicente. But then a foot abscess popped, and so, too, did his chances of making the Risen Star Stakes, which had been targeted for his second start of the season. Since then he has been "swimming," but not in a recreational way. To spare his troublesome foot, he's staying in condition by "swimming" on Aqua Tred at the Premier Equine Center in central California. His trainer, Keith Desormeaux, said Texas Red is doing well and should return to the racetrack around the first of March to continue preparing for the Santa Anita Derby on April 4.
6. Khozan
Khozan has raced only twice, but he has dropped jaws both times, as well as numerous hints about his potential. How good could he be? A half-brother to the great Royal Delta, he'll have to be good enough to overcome 133 years of history if he's to win the Kentucky Derby. Just getting there could be a challenge since he has no qualifying points. But what he lacks in points, he could make up for with ability. He'll probably make his stakes debut in the Florida Derby.
7. International Star
International Star might not be as talented as some of these, but he's among the most admirable and reliable horses on the road to Kentucky. Saturday, in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, he added another stakes victory to his resume. The win in New Orleans represented a courageous effort by a determined racehorse and a tremendous ride by Miguel Mena. Running the fourth quarter-mile in 24.30 seconds, International Star literally had to skim the rail to get through a narrow opening; he struck the lead in mid-stretch and then draw clear. His shining virtue is his desire to win. Having already won the Lecomte Stakes, he'll try to run the table in New Orleans when he makes his next start, on March 28, in the Louisiana Derby.
8T. Itsaknockout
Even if you're of the opinion that the disqualification in the Fountain of Youth was unjustified, you have to admire the way this big colt has progressed. He's moving forward in each race, not with lunges but with deliberate steps. And as a son of Belmont Stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid, Itsaknockout is likely to continue his progress. The Fountain of Youth was a slow race. Watching it was like waiting for the jury foreman to announce the verdict. And although any conclusion can be only tentative because of all the bumping and checking going on, Itsaknockout rallied with purpose through the second turn and to mid-stretch. If he continues to move forward in the Florida Derby, he could be a major player in Kentucky.
8T. Firing Line
Those three runner-up finishes would be discouraging in most cases. On most worksheets, they'd blink and flash and draw attention to themselves as if they were attached to a slot machine. But two of those losses were to Dortmund, by a head. In other words, Firing Line just might be one of the most talented horses of his generation, but, for the moment anyway, being in the right place at the right time isn't among his talents. He's expected to skip the San Felipe and aim instead for the Santa Anita Derby.
10. Far Right
Like International Star, Far Right likes to win, and he has figured out how to do it. Having already won the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Far Right overcame a troubled trip to take Sunday's Southwest Stakes. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith guided Far Right through traffic in the second turn, and then in the stretch they dove for an opening inside. Far Right got up to win by nearly a length, and afterwards Smith said there's considerable room for improvement. Because of the weather, the Southwest was moved back six days. And so instead of running March 14 in the Rebel Stakes, the next race in Oaklawn's series, Far Right will wait for the Arkansas Derby on April 11, according to his trainer, Ron Moquette.
Also receiving votes: Also receiving votes: Far From Over (29), Ocean Knight (22), The Great War (18), Ocho Ocho Ocho (16), Prospect Park (14), El Kabeir (13), Blofeld (5), Mr. Z (5), Mubtaahij (4), Bolo (4), Metaboss (3), Conquest Typhoon (3), Lord Nelson (1).
To see how our experts voted, please click here.