In the heart of winter, while we wait for racing to kick back into high gear, debating who will walk away with a trophy at the Eclipse Awards becomes a favorite pastime of many racing aficionados. On Jan. 17, we will all know all the answers, but until then, the Horse of the Year debate rages on.
The 2014 Horse of the Year finalists are Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome, Breeders' Cup Classic winner Bayern and Breeders' Cup Turf winner Main Sequence.
A traditionalist would say that California Chrome is going to win because the Triple Crown races are the most coveted in American racing. Chrome won the Santa Anita Derby, Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes before running valiantly in defeat in the Belmont Stakes and Breeders' Cup Classic. He then added a fourth Grade 1 victory to his résumé by taking the Hollywood Derby on the turf.
However, California Chrome isn't a forgone conclusion to be named Horse of the Year, and there are two main reasons.
First, from the time he won the Preakness in mid-May until he took the Hollywood Derby at the end of November, California Chrome did not win a race. He was fourth in the Belmont, sixth in the Pennsylvania Derby, and third in the Breeders' Cup Classic.
While California Chrome was tallying up losses, Bayern was tallying up victories, several of them against his rival. It is true Bayern finished off the board in the Preakness, but he went on to win the Woody Stephens and Haskell before beating Chrome in both the Pennsylvania Derby and the Classic. Yes, it was a controversial Classic, but Bayern was the official winner of record, and California Chrome had no part in said controversy.
It was a tale of two seasons. California Chrome had a better spring, and Bayern had a better autumn. The vague rules of Eclipse Award voting leave it up to the voter to decide which has more value: the Triple Crown or beating all comers in the Breeders' Cup.
That is the second reason keeping Chrome from being a lock. He and Bayern are tied together by the fact they were both 3-year-olds and because they raced against each other multiple times. If you consider one for Horse of the Year honors, you have to consider the other.
Using that logic, it leaves the third finalist, Main Sequence, sitting pretty. Main Sequence is an older turf horse, and until Chrome ran in and won the Hollywood Derby, he was the only horse in the country with four Grade 1s under his belt in 2014. Granted, the biggest knock against him is that those four victories also came in the only four starts he made, but it isn't unprecedented for a horse to win Horse of the Year while racing so few times.
Main Sequence capped his season with his victory in the Turf, and has been flattered immensely by Flintshire, the horse who finished second to him that day. In his start before the Turf, Flintshire finished second in France's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, and then after the Breeders' Cup, he hopped on another plane and won the Hong Kong Vase. Those are two of the most respected races in the world and only help to enhance Main Sequence's Breeders' Cup score.
We already know that Main Sequence won his divisional title, even though it hasn't been announced. History says that by being a Horse of the Year finalist, he must have won the title of Champion Turf Male and quite possibly Older Male as well.
What is not known, however, is who will be named Champion 3-year-old Male since both Bayern and California Chrome are Horse of the Year finalists. We already know by process of elimination that it isn't Shared Belief.
What it boils down to is that voters who like Main Sequence only like Main Sequence, while voters who like California Chrome have to consider Bayern as well and vice versa. As a result, the vote for a traditional dirt horse is getting split between two horses, while the less traditional vote going to Main Sequence won't be cannibalized by another.
The traditionalist in me says it is California Chrome's trophy to lose, but the statistician in me says Main Sequence is going to win.