"That's dumb," said a guy who a few minutes earlier had bet $20 to show on a 50-1 moonshot that finished far up the track. But the guy wasn't talking about his own wager; he was talking about Churchill Downs' first Kentucky Derby future pool, which opens Friday.
"Can ya think of anything dumber than betting on a race five months before post time?" said a guy who had just boxed the favorites in an exacta and then became angry when he got split by the fourth-choice in the field. He complained he should have included more horses in the box. (In such cases, there's always the temptation to ask, What's greater, the number of angels that can dance on the head of a pin or the number of horses that can squeeze into your exacta box?)
Anyway, in the hierarchy of foolish bets, the Kentucky Derby future pool ranks somewhere between a long shot to show and an exacta box of the favorites. But there's an important distinction: Nobody actually bets on the Kentucky Derby months in advance because he thinks it's smart. If a guy wants to look smart, he can eat leeks.
KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER POOL 1
No, a person bets into a Kentucky Derby future pool because it's amusing and fun, even if it might be a little silly. Or at least the bet should start out as fun, rolling into the new year on a breeze, gathering momentum in February and March, and then, with a little luck, moving towards a crescendo of spectacle-based ecstasy in May. But the fun will remain muted until Churchill Downs figures out a way to include more horses.
In the pool that opens Friday, there are 23 individual betting interests plus the "mutuel field," which, of course, means everybody else. But where's Mr. Jordan, a.k.a. White Lightning, an undefeated colt who'll stretch out this weekend at Gulfstream Park West? He might be a blast of refreshing air, but he's not an individual betting interest at Churchill; so he's in the mutuel field, which opens at 3-5 in the morning line. Betting on an odds-on mutuel field while searching for Mr. Jordan wouldn't be fun even if the wager came with all the leeks you can eat because in Las Vegas, at the Wynn, White Lightning is 100-1, odds that might disturb the old digestion after you've taken 3-5. And why would anybody accept 20-1 on Calculator in the Churchill pool when you could get 60-1 in Vegas? It's rather difficult to imagine a son of In Summation excelling at 1-1/4 miles, but it's nearly impossible to imagine betting on its happening if the odds are only 20-1.
The individual horses in the pool were selected by an ad hoc committee of everybody still employed at Churchill who knows anything about horse racing -- all five of them. Among the individual horses, American Pharoah is the favorite at 12-1. The season's best-looking juvenile, he had to miss the Breeders' Cup because of a minor foot issue, but he flashed his pharaonic talents -- which, by the way, don't include spelling -- while winning the Del Mar Futurity and the FrontRunner Stakes. And then there's Texas Red, who rallied strongly to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile after the race disintegrated in the furnace of its own pace, at 15-1. After that, seven horses are backed up like rush-hour traffic at 20-1. If the oddsmaker -- Mike Battaglia in this case -- can't make up his mind and distinguish a difference among seven horses, why are the bettors supposed to? And one of those seven, Hopeful Stakes winner Competitive Edge, fractured his left foreleg in September. He's expected to return at 100 percent, but how many horses have come back from a broken leg to win the Kentucky Derby? If you're still wondering, you probably shouldn't accept 20-1 on Competitive Edge.
The most intriguing horse among the 23 is Dortmund at 50-1. Like American Pharoah and two others in the initial pool, Dortmund comes from the stable of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. On closing day at Santa Anita, in an otherwise inconspicuous maiden race, the big chestnut didn't leave the gate swiftly but then pulled jockey Martin Garcia through traffic and up to the leaders. After racing three-wide, Dortmund drew off in the stretch to win his debut by nearly five lengths. He returns to the track Saturday -- and from a Churchill-future perspective, that's the problem. He could develop into a big-time horse, a prominent Derby contender, but if he wins Saturday his odds could fall like a punctured balloon. Also inviting at 50-1 is Ostrolenka, a New York-bred who has won consecutive races by a total of 17 lengths. Like four others in the pool, he comes from the stable of trainer Todd Pletcher. But if Ostrolenka wins Saturday's Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct, his odds could plummet, too.
They might be fun, but it would be much smarter to play them in Vegas, where you could lock in Ostrolenka at 200-1. You no doubt see the problem. Unless your name is Marty McFly and you're bopping around in a time-defiant DeLorean, you probably won't find the odds you need in Churchill's Kentucky Derby future pool to even begin to justify the risk. Betting into the pool is fun, but on the dumb-bet scale it ranks halfway between self-immolation and mortification. The pool obviously needs more individual horses if it's going to appeal to serious bettors. With, say, 300 horses to bet on, in the pari-mutuel system the odds would soar.
Churchill officials insist the track's tote system can't handle any more horses, not without drastic and costly improvements. And you know how those corporate capos feel about making any improvements that don't involve additional Derby seating.
But there's another possibility. Even if the track can't make the bet appealing to serious players by offering odds high enough to justify the risk, Churchill can still lower the risk sufficiently to justify the odds. Next week, Churchill will ask the Kentucky Racing Commission to approve a Derby future bet on stallions. It's an unusual approach, but selling it shouldn't require a pitch from Jonathan Gruber. Quite simply, the bet would group horses by sire.
For example, with a bet on Tapit, you would wager, in effect, that some son or daughter of the popular stallion will win the Derby. And there are many sons and daughters of Tapit that could be traveling in the general direction of Kentucky. Your bet would be on such up-and-coming youngsters as Frosted and Bronze Star, as well as the stakes winning filly West Coast Belle; it would include promising maidens such as Astounding and Hottap, personal favorites, as well as 46 2-year-olds that haven't even raced yet. A bet on Super Saver would include stakes winners Competitive Edge and I Spent It, as well as 11 other winners. If you want Mr. Jordan, you'd have to bet on his sire, Kantharos.
And the stallion wager would succeed in an important way that the current future pool doesn't. The stallion wager would stimulate interest by encouraging people to follow several horses advancing along the various roads to Kentucky and to keep a vigil for any emerging contenders.
Such a bet would not only be fun, but also could be smart. As for the Kentucky Derby future pool that opens Friday and closes Sunday, well, it's more fun than eating leeks.