Choosing a horse to be a lock in a Breeders' Cup World Championship race is a tricky proposition. The two-day racing spectacle is unique in the sense that is presenting the best of the best in each racing division. By the very definition of what it is, the vast majority of the horses running could conceivably win the race they are entered in.
The Kentucky Derby, for instance, is a different betting race entirely. We have an idea about which horse is the best of the next generation, but we don't actually know. By the time these horses qualify for the Breeders' Cup, we usually know a lot more about them. This is, of course, discounting the juvenile races.
On paper, the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic looks like Shared Belief's race to lose. The gelding was named 2-year-old champion last year and proved his backers right this year by remaining undefeated. He did not compete in the Triple Crown due to injury but has bested his elders at the highest level in the months since.
Shared Belief is 7-for-7 lifetime. You can't knock a horse that has never lost, especially when that horse is already a Grade 1 winner over the track.
However, if Shared Belief picks the wrong race to have a bad day, from a sentimental standpoint I would love to see Cigar Street win. The 5-year-old is owned by Jake Ballis and Rashard Lewis, the latter better known as a longtime NBA player.
Cigar Street is by Street Sense and is out of a half-sister to Cigar, who won the Classic in 1995. Cigar Street is also trained by Bill Mott, who conditioned Cigar. A two-time Horse of the Year, Cigar died earlier this month, and there would be something both circular and fitting if Cigar Street up and won on Saturday.
"He looks great and he's doing fine," said Mott. "It looks like he's moving very well over the track. I was very pleased with him."
Another Mott trainee, Close Hatches, is my pick in the Breeders' Cup Distaff. She ran a game second in the race in 2013 behind multiple champion Beholder, who was scheduled to defend her title this year but will be unable to because she came down with a fever.
Close Hatches is talented and consistent; however, she put in an uncharacteristically dull effort in her last start, checking in fourth in the Grade 1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes at Keeneland. I am willing to forgive that in light of her past form.
"She seems like she acts good," Mott said. "We're in hopes that she just didn't like the racetrack over there. It's not the kind of thing you like to say about a champion filly; you think that they run over anything. She has run over a lot of different racetracks in the past. She's run well everywhere. Why she didn't run at Keeneland, I don't know."
One horse drawing plenty of eyes this week is Distaff contender L'Amour de Ma Vie. She is big, she is gray and she is hard to miss. Although an outsider in this race, she has had plenty of experience with travel, racing in group company in Britain, France, Italy and the United Arab Emirates. Her trainer, Pia Brandt, is also her exercise rider. I got to meet her this week, and wish her nothing but the best in the race. Plus, L'Amour de Ma Vie seems to be taking all the chaos in stride while adapting nicely to the prospect of running on an American dirt surface.
"She seems to really like the dirt out here, and she actually prefers it to the sand back at home," said Brandt. "She is obviously very relaxed, as she seems to sleep a lot in her barn. She is behaving very well out on the track, even when being passed by hundreds of colts."
The Breeders' Cup Turf is usually a race where I look to a European-based runner to cross the wire first. However, this year the Graham Motion-trained Main Sequence has put together a nice string of races stateside. He began his career overseas before this year coming to the U.S., where he has been undefeated in three Grade 1 races.
"It really started my career," said Motion of that victory. "It took my career to a whole different level, so obviously it means a whole lot to me. It's amazing to me that it was 10 years ago. It's pretty neat to have a contender in the race this year. I've wanted to get back with a contender for this race, so it's exciting."
Of course while the Breeders' Cup is a showcase of proven talent, the juvenile races give everyone a reason to dream heading into the winter. Derby season will be upon us before we know it, and the Juvenile is, in a way, the kickoff to the madness.
Expected favorite American Pharoah was forced to scratch earlier this week due to injury, but there is still plenty of intrigue to be found in the race. Multiple horses come in with undefeated records, as they are so early in their career. Souper Colossal, a son of War Front, might go off at better odds than some of his competition, even though he brings a 3-for-3 record into the race. Todd Pletcher, who is known for his affinity with 2-year-olds, has two big runners in the race, so I am hoping the Eddie Plesa Jr.-trained Souper Colossal gets overlooked as a result.
In the end, the Breeders' Cup can be an overwhelming event to handicap. If you haven't started by now, you are probably too late. However, with so many good horses competing in so many good races, great storylines abound. Pick the horse you like or pick the storyline you like, then sit back and enjoy the races.