ARCADIA, Calif. -- Knowledge comes from study, but wisdom from observation, or at least that's what the philosophers at Clocker's Corner say. Few pleasures can compare with watching the parade of outstanding horses on these mornings that begin before sunrise and lead through multiple dawnings up to the Breeders' Cup extravagance.
In an attempt to understand these upcoming Breeders' Cup races, handicappers pore over past performances, which are each horse's personal racing history. But no matter how detailed, past performances represent a meager biography. They never can fully describe a horse's talents, measure his abilities or identify his limitations; a performance is too complex ever to be reduced to a single number or rating or clocking.
No, in the end only the horses themselves know the truth. That's why observation can impart wisdom. Watch the horses closely. And watch the races. Observation is the most valuable handicapping tool. Santa Anita can be, or at least has been in the past, a speed-biased surface. The new track, put in before the start of this meeting, seems to be playing fairly, but then again surfaces, like people, can revert to former habits. So watch closely for any indication that the track is favoring a certain style or path and enjoy the first day of the Breeders' Cup.
Juvenile Turf: The Europeans have dominated this race, as they should. After all, it was created for them. And again they look formidable here at Santa Anita. It wouldn't be a surprise at all if they sweep the top spots, starting perhaps with Hootenanny. But he at least has American roots. He began his career at Keeneland and is trained by Wesley Ward, but the colt has been racing in Europe since June, when he impressively won the Windsor Castle Stakes at Ascot. That was run on a five-furlong straightaway, and after flashing speed and settling, he finished with explosive acceleration to draw clear from 23 rivals. More recently, in France, Hootenanny ran second on soft turf in the prestigious Prix Morny, less than a length behind one of the more highly rated European juveniles, The Wow Signal. Interestingly, Frankie Dettori, who rode The Wow Signal in France, will be on Hootenanny at Santa Anita. The one-mile distance is something of a question for him since he hasn't raced beyond three-quarters of a mile, but Hootenanny is fast and talented; and on the firm turf here, he'll prove hard to run down. Ward seems quite confident. Aktabantay already has raced six times, finishing first or second in five of those races while facing some of Europe's better youngsters. In the Grand Criterium, he encountered traffic problems, dropped back but then finished with good energy. Commemorative, a winner of consecutive races, is already 25-1 in the futures, or ante-post betting, for next year's English Derby; he should get involved late. War Envoy is another highly regarded invader from the stable of trainer Aidan O'Brien, who won this race in 2011 and 2012 and finished second last year with Giovanni Boldini. Of the Americans, Luck of the Kitten has looked good here, the New York contingent could make some noise and Danny Boy has impressed.
1. Hootenanny
2. Aktabantay
3. Commemorative
4. War Envoy
Dirt Mile: The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way ya gotta bet, according to some Damon Runyon character who probably cashed a ticket last year on Goldencents in the Dirt Mile. The same character is preparing to cash again, and he probably will. Quite simply, Goldencents is the fastest horse, and this is, after all, a race. On last year's speed-biased surface, he dominated, even from his No. 11 post position. This new Santa Anita surface doesn't appear to be so kind or generous or helpful to speed as last year's, but for Goldencents it probably won't have to be. He has drawn No. 1 this year, and from there he'll simply go. Nobody else in here is quite as quick. Fed Biz appears to be the biggest threat. But, then again, he poured everything he had into his effort to beat Shared Belief in the Awesome Again. How much remains? Fed Biz typically has followed his best efforts with something less, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he regresses here, especially since he drew poorly. Only once in his career has he rallied from farther back than second to win, and that happened at Del Mar, over a synthetic surface he loves; and Friday, with three speedsters drawn inside of him, Fed Biz could be as far back as fourth early. Or, if sent, he could be done early. Pants On Fire has sufficient speed to stalk, and he appears to be in the best form of his career. Tapiture, who might win the award for the most beautiful horse in the Breeders' Cup, if there were such a thing, has taken the step forward that 3-year-olds often take this time of year, and the feeling here is that a mile just might turn out to be his best distance. But on this surface, without a speed duel on the front, he could be at something of a disadvantage. Carve is intriguing: He has given two of his better efforts at this distance, albeit around one turn, and he has sufficient speed to be close early. He could enjoy a perfect, ground-saving, stalking trip. And for the extra-long shot, look at Big Bane Theory. He never has raced on dirt, but he looks like a monster, and he's training like a boxer who's looking forward to knocking out somebody.
1. Goldencents
2. Pants On Fire
3. Tapiture
4. Carve
Juvenile Fillies Turf: The Europeans have won this race each of the past two years here at Santa Anita, but is the group here as strong? In England, Qualify is 25-1 in the futures, or ante-post, wagering for the 1000 Guineas, and her recent victory at The Curragh in Ireland suggests she's improving, but she has drawn the extreme outside. Osaila comes out of a solid win at Newmarket, but she's stretching out and never has raced around a turn. If these invaders aren't quite as strong as the fillies that came here in 2013 and 2012, then Sunset Glow, another world traveler from Wesley Ward's barn, could represent the culmination of a huge day for the stable. She finished second at Ascot in June behind one of Europe's best fillies. Since coming here, Sunset Glow has won two stakes on synthetic surfaces but is said to be at her best on turf. Lady Eli is unbeaten in two races, including the Miss Grillo Stakes. Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens returns on Sivoliere, an Irish filly who has been with trainer Chad Brown since September. Lady Zuzu and Rainha Da Bateria has been impressive here.
1. Sunset Glow
2. Qualify
3. Osaila
4. Lady Zuzu
Distaff: Can anybody other than Untapable or Close Hatches win this? Yes, of course, but it would seem unlikely unless the surface reverts to an extreme speed bias. Close Hatches and Untapable are sensational fillies, and their meeting could result in a memorable showdown. Rather than stay at home in New York for the Beldame, Close Hatches traveled to Kentucky for the Spinster, where she ran poorly in preparation for this. But she was unbeaten this season before going to Keeneland, and she has finished first or second in 11 of her 13 races, the only exceptions being her two races in Kentucky, the Oaks and the Spinster. She's in the hands of a masterful horseman, and Close Hatches should return to form here. Untapable didn't win her most recent outing, the Cotillion, as easily as many expected, but she had been given some time off and was rallying on a very speed-biased surface that day at Parx. She has been among the more impressive horses in her Breeders' Cup preparations here at Santa Anita and appears ready for a top effort. Tiz Midnight should zip to the early lead, followed closely by Iotapa. Untapable drew well and could force Close Hatches to race wide in the first turn, but they won't be far behind. Don't Tell Sophia, an admirably consistent mare, always comes charging and will no doubt make a bid in the lane. L'Amour de Ma Vie, a lovely gray mare from Europe, is intriguing. And if you're looking for an extra-long shot to complete exotics, Unbridled Forever might be worthy of inclusion. She has been training very sharply here.
1. Untapable
2. Close Hatches
3. Tiz Midnight
4. Don't Tell Sophia