ARCADIA, Calif. -- As a proving ground, last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile was rather fallow, but that was an aberration. The Juvenile is one of those Breeders' Cup races that must be seen, and not just seen, but also remembered. Over the years, no other race for 2-year-olds has been more telling or productive. And as a predictor of future success, nothing else is even close. In the 30-year history of the race, the Juvenile has produced winners of 23 Triple Crown races.
And many of those that went on to success in the spring classics came out of the Juvenile as inconspicuously as they entered it, horses such as Danzig Connection, Go And Go, Pine Bluff and, of course, Mine That Bird, who in 2008 finished last of 12 as a 23-1 long shot here at Santa Anita but six months later caused an ice storm in the netherworld when he won the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. The history insists all these youngsters racing Saturday in the 31st Juvenile are worth a mental note, that they deserve to have their names entered into the old mnemonic hard drive, including those that might finish up the track and even American Pharoah, who was scratched from this year's renewal because of what appears to be a foot bruise. They're all here because they have flashed not just talent, but potential and promise. And even if at this point the promise might be more emphatic than the talent, these are promising youngsters whose abilities could emerge raucously in the near future. Despite the withdrawal of the early favorite, the field for this year's Juvenile appears to be the deepest and most promising in years.
Wednesday morning in the Santa Anita stable area, in a tack room serving as a makeshift office in barn 89, trainer Todd Pletcher relaxed in his chair and eased back like a man who's holding a pair of aces. And he is. In the Juvenile, he'll saddle two unbeaten colts, Daredevil and Carpe Diem. Earlier in the morning, they both made a favorable impression, the sort of impression that's usually accompanied by a breathy "wow," as they put in some easy gallops and got a feel for the Santa Anita surface.
Both colts showed considerable promise from the start of their training, Pletcher said, and "both have indicated that additional distance won't be any problem."
Additional distance? The Juvenile will be run at 1-1/16 miles. Carpe Diem already has won at that distance, and Daredevil has won at a mile. Clearly Pletcher wasn't thinking only of Saturday's race, but was looking ahead, and the additional distance that could await these promising colts in the future just might include a long stretch at Churchill Downs. That's the promise they possess.
Daredevil easily won his debut last month at Belmont Park, three weeks later took the Champagne Stakes and in both looked dominant. In his debut, the rider hustled the powerfully built colt away from the gate, and Daredevil showed his speed, winning by more than six lengths. But in the Champagne, at a mile, jockey Javier Castellano took the big colt in hand early, allowing him to cruise along comfortably outside the early leaders, about a length behind, and then, nearing the stretch, Daredevil began to draw clear, and by the time he struck the wire, he had put on a show, a dazzling display, and without much encouragement or so much as a touch of the whip. If he's truly as good as he looked that day at Belmont, he'll be one of the sport's stars Saturday afternoon.
But there's reason to be skeptical. Daredevil won both races on a wet track. And in the Champagne, where the surface was sealed, he raced well off the rail, in what seemed the best path. That day at Belmont, four winners led throughout, suggesting the conditions favored speed, and Daredevil indeed raced close to the pace. So was he as good and as overwhelming as he looked?
"There's no question he can perform brilliantly on a sloppy track," Pletcher said. "But if you had seen him work Sunday at Belmont, you'd think he's just as good on a dry track. It was very dry, and he went a [half-mile] in 47-and-two [47.47 seconds], and he did it like that." As Pletcher finished the sentence, he turned his palms up, clinched his fists and pulled, miming an exercise rider's attempts to restrain the colt. "In his debut, we hesitated to run him on a wet track because we weren't sure how he would handle it. He never had worked on a muddy track. After that, though, it wasn't a worry when the track was sloppy for the Champagne."
For a final analysis of the Champagne, the time might be the most telling measure: Daredevil ran the mile in 1:36.62. That same day at Belmont, By The Moon won the Frizette Stakes, also at a mile, in 1:39.42. And a 4-year-old named Iron Power won a one-mile allowance race in 1:38.74. Daredevil, in other words, would have defeated them both by more than 10 lengths.
Carpe Diem could be equally special. A partnership of WinStar Farm and Stonestreet Stables, with Pletcher's encouragement, paid $1.6 million for the son of Giant's Causeway at the March sale of 2-year-olds in Ocala, Florida. Six months later, with coruscating speed, Carpe Diem won his debut at Saratoga, running the opening half-mile in 44.90 seconds and moving clear in deep stretch. And then, like Daredevil, Carpe Diem was able to control his speed in his second start, the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland. John Velazquez took a strong hold early and put Carpe Diem in a stalking position behind a trio of leaders. The handsome and athletic looking colt advanced as he approached the second turn, took a slight advantage into the stretch and then with an explosive burst dispelled any doubt about the outcome. He won by more than six lengths, eased up in the final yards.
"He was running short [5-1/2 furlongs] in his debut, and he had the one-hole," Pletcher said, referring to the No. 1 post position Carpe Diem drew at Saratoga, "so we had to use his speed. But he'll rate; he's tractable. At Keeneland, we wanted to put him in a position to take back off of horses and give him an opportunity around two turns. ... We're very excited about both horses." So excited, in fact, Pletcher is thinking about additional distance.
While Pletcher has a pair of aces, trainer Eddie Plesa Jr. might hold the wild card for the Juvenile in Souper Colossal. Racing exclusively at Monmouth Park in New Jersey, the son of War Front has won all three of his outings, including the Sapling Stakes. And on Monday, here at Santa Anita, he turned in a sensational workout, officially going five-eighths of a mile in 57.40 seconds. Actually, though, he was working four furlongs (in about 45.50 seconds), but he had a long run to the half-mile pole and a strong gallop-out beyond the wire, and so the clockers gave him credit for the longer move. Any way it's measured, though, the workout was stunning, with jockey Paco Lopez motionless in the saddle.
"It was a super work," Plesa said, explaining that it was faster than he would have liked. Coming as it did just days before the race, the workout could have left the colt spent, all his energy poured into that scorching half-mile. "But what I really like is what happened after the work," Plesa continued, pointing out that Souper Colossal "ate up every oat" after the move. "And he was kicking the barn down this morning [Wednesday]. It probably really tightened him up for the race."
In the Sapling, from his outside post position, Souper Colossal sprinted to the lead without being asked, and from there little changed, except his advantage, which he stretched to more than five lengths at the wire. The race wasn't especially fast - 1:38.44, or about a length faster than the other one-mile race that day. But Lopez never called on Souper Colossal, never asked the colt to run, never used his whip and as early as the second turn was looking over his shoulder for any threat, which never appeared. How good is Souper Colossal? Plesa said he doesn't know.
"I know he's a stakes horse, but beyond that we'll find out Saturday," the trainer said. "But we're not here just to participate. We're here to win."
Upstart rallied to finish second to Daredevil in the Champagne, but nearly 13 lengths ahead of the third horse. Texas Devil swung out seven-wide when he finished third to American Pharoah in the Frontrunner. One Lucky Dane is a big long-striding colt, and Lucky Player, the winner of the Iroquois Stakes, looks like a horse whose future could include some major accomplishments. Yes, file these names away in a safe place, where you can retrieve them next spring.