Friday's Races
Sixth Race: Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
Based on how well the Europeans have performed in North America so far this year, we're going to go with all foreigners all the time in the Breeders' Cup turf races. In seven runnings, an American-based horse has won this race only once, and Aidan O'Brien has won it two of the past three years. So let's go right back with O'Brien's War Envoy. He's lost six straight since breaking his maiden but has been competitive in top class races and need not be a star to defeat the Americans. Hootenanny is actually trained in the U.S. by Wesley Ward but has made his past two starts in Europe. He probably is the most talented Euro in the race, but he has never gone beyond six furlongs, and Ward's strength is not with route horses. Aktabany exited the same race as the top pick and finished only three-quarters of a length behind Hootenanny.
Seventh Race: Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
Although this isn't a very creative pick, Goldencents looks like he's ready to win this race for the second straight year for trainer Doug O'Neill. He has been lightly campaigned this year, has remained in good form, drew the perfect post and has done some of his very best running at this distance and over this track. Fed Biz looks like the main threat, but it's hard to overlook that Goldencents beat him handily in the Pat O'Brien back at Del Mar. After showing nothing in the Kentucky Derby, Tapiture has come back strong, won two straight and then run second behind the freakishly fast Bayern in the Pennsylvania Derby.
Eighth Race: Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Osaila didn't beat much in her latest start, a non-graded race, but she more than held her own in her previous start in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes in Ireland. She has won the past three times Dettori was aboard. Welcome back, Gary Stevens. What a story it would be if the jockey pulled this one off with Sivoliere while coming back from knee-replacement surgery. The filly, entering the Chad Brown barn, was a creditable third in a Group 3 race, her latest outing in France and seems to prefer the type of firm going she should get at Santa Anita. Aidan O'Brien sends out Group 3 winner Qualify, who is likely going to have a hard time overcoming the 14 post.
Ninth Race: Breeders' Cup Distaff
Untapable's win in the Cotillion was more on the workman-like side, but don't forget she was one of the few horses all day to close any ground on a track that was severely speed-biased. Steve Asmussen certainly knows what he's doing and should have this filly primed for an improved effort. Iotapa hasn't been quite the same since her brilliant 10-1/4-length romp in the Vanity, but she will be dangerous if she can run back to that race. Tiz Midnight showed some fight when coming back to miss to Beholder by just three-quarters of a length in the Zenyatta Stakes. I'm going to take a stand against Close Hatches, who drew poorly and ran miserably in her latest start. She's not worth taking at a short price.
Saturday's Races
Fourth Race: Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
Conquest Eclipse has improved with every start and closed well to finish second behind Angel Renee in the Chandelier. She might have to step it up a notch but certainly seems capable. Top Decile drew poorly (post 11), but you can't ignore the huge run she put in to close from 10th to second in the Alcibiades at Keeneland. She showed speed in her debut and can be closer early. Puca goes from a maiden special weight race to the Breeders' Cup, but that was no ordinary maiden special. She won by 16 lengths and adds Lasix for this race, and the stable is showing it means business by replacing jockey Junior Alvarado with Joel Rosario.
Fifth Race: Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf
Continuing with the all-Europeans-all-the time theme, Secret Gesture has been particularly good in her past two starts, especially when third in the Group 1 Jean Romanet, usually a pretty tough spot at Deauville. Just The Judge is a very logical contender after a win in the EP Taylor at Woodbine, but coming back in two weeks might be asking a lot. That she doesn't run on Lasix should help her maintain her form. Dank won this race the past year but seemed to be in much better form coming into that one. That said, her only two races this year have been against males, and she should fare better now that she's against her own sex. Fiesolana has good form but probably can't go the 1-1/4 mile distance.
Sixth Race: Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Stonetastic has the speed to take control of the race early and never look back. She dueled in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes at Keeneland in her latest race (by the way, four of the past five BCFMS winners have come out of that race) and still held well for third. There's not a ton of speed in this field, and if she can get comfortable on the lead, they won't catch her. I would like her a lot more if this race were run at 6 furlongs. Sweet Reason drew a terrible post, considering her running style, but she has enough talent to get to the winner's circle. She's 2-for-2 at the distance and gave Untapable all she could handle in the Cotillion. Artemis Agrotera won the Gallant Bloom, but few expected it to be that close. Still, she's a good horse, and her best effort might be enough.
Seventh Race: Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
In maybe the toughest race on the Breeders' Cup card, the nod goes to NFL wide receiver Wes Welker's Undrafted, He won the Jaipur in New York at a comparable distance, turned in a big effort when fourth in a Group 1 race in Europe and nearly overcame a slow pace to win at Kentucky Downs. The outside posts usually do better in these down-the-hill races. Home Run Kitten is 2-for-2 at the distance and should give a good account of himself. No Nay Never might be as good as any turf sprinter in the world but could be a fish out of water at this tricky 6-1/2 furlong downhill distance. Why ride Frankie Dettori when Mike Smith is far more familiar with this course and distance?
Eighth Race: Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Considering American Pharoah would have been the favorite in here, how much of a stretch is it to take the horse who kept running second behind him, Calculator? Although he's a maiden, he was second in two straight Grade 1's, drew the rail and seems to be getting better with every start. Todd Pletcher has a potent pair in Carpe Diem and Daredevil, both of whom look like they could be future superstars. For Daredevil, Post 12 could pose a problem. Super Colossal hasn't faced good horses yet, but he is undefeated, has a very fast work over the track and is in the hands of the very capable Eddie Plesa Jr. He is a longshot worth using on your tickets.
Ninth Race: Breeders' Cup Turf
Flintshire faced off against the best in the world in the Arc de Triomphe in France and was a solid second behind the terrific mare Treve. He seems to be improving and is in the hands of the masterful Andre Fabre. Magician won this past year, and there's no reason he can't do it again. The one concern is he lost the Arlington Million to a horse, Hardest Core, who had no business beating him. Telescope is still another European threat with consistent form who has been facing many of the best in Europe. Jockey Ryan Moore has won this race in three of the past six editions.
10th Race: Breeders' Cup Sprint
Bob Baffert pulled off this move this past year in getting Secret Circle to the Breeders' Cup winner's circle in his second start off a long layoff. He ran just OK in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship, but if he's back at his very best, he can win this race. Private Zone flopped in the Sprint the past year, but his dirt form has been outstanding since. A lot of people will be rooting for the hay, oats and water horse out of Hong Kong, Rich Tapestry. He's got a big chance, but often overseas shippers don't run as well in their second starts in the U.S.
11th Race: Breeders' Cup Mile
Toronado looks like far and away the best European in a race the Europeans should win. There's no Wise Dan in here for them to worry about. This is a legitimate top horse, the kind that is always a threat against the very best in Group 1 races -- the best bet of the Breeders' Cup weekend. Mustajeeb hasn't run in the kind of top class races Toronado has, but he's in improving form and looks ready to deliver a career-best performance. Anodin was the beaten favorite in the Group 1 Prix de la Foret and only lost by two lengths to Toronado in the Group 1 Queen Anne.
12th Race: Breeders' Cup Classic
There's no reason not to believe in Shared Belief. He's undefeated, he's already beaten older horses twice, he couldn't be in better hands than the team of trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and jockey Mike Smith, he's won at a mile-and-a-quarter, and he overcame a really tough trip to win the Awesome Again Stakes. If there's a flaw, I certainly can't find it. Toast of New York is an unknown on the dirt, but you have to like the way he ran in the Pacific Classic when second to Shared Belief, despite some traffic problems. Tonalist showed he's the real deal when winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and obviously, the distance is no problem for him. I've always been a big Bayern fan, but he needs to get loose on the lead, and I don't think Moreno will allow him to do that. Sure, California Chrome can bounce back, but he really, really wasn't good in the Pennsylvania Derby, and now is not the time to hope he wakes up.