I know what you're going to say: This is crazy and foolish, like trying to hitch a ride to the moon or play pinochle with a polar bear. And it is.
But there's no escaping craziness or foolishness -- they have reserved parking spots in most mental garages -- and why would you want to, as long as they're not pernicious? Craziness has a purpose; foolishness is indispensable. They lighten the quotidian; without them everybody would shamble through life slumped over like a question mark.
And so people do foolish things, take unnecessary risks, and not only to distinguish this day from any other, but also to hear and feel the crash of cymbals when the endorphins strike the hypothalamus and then to discover what peace or fulfillment might await them when the music subsides. People jump off of bridges and out of airplanes, slide down and climb up mountains, ride bulls, roller coasters and unicycles, all to answer some compelling need to expose themselves to risk and take a chance. That's also why people buy racehorses and, of course, bet on them. Betting for many is just a sublimation of risk-taking.
For some, taking a risk is like sticking a toe into fate's turbulent river; checking the temperature is all they really want to do; a cold, damp toe all they really care to risk. That's fine. Vicarious risk-taking satisfies many, too, and so people flock to movies about monster-defying heroes. But for a few, only the headlong immersion will suffice and only an extreme risk can quicken the pulse. Some have to climb Mount Everest, not despite its "death zone" but because of it. And some have to bet the Kentucky Derby futures, not in spite of its being the foolish thing to do but because of it.
Anyway, it's here, in all its risk-taking, crazy foolishness, the first Kentucky Derby futures pool for 2015. Maybe this is what they mean by global warming: spring fever in September. If people want to bet on it, Johnny Avello, the executive director of the race and sports book at the Wynn in Las Vegas, will give them odds, and people, it seems, always want to bet on the Derby, even when it's so distant in the future it looks like a speck. And so Avello this week has released his opening odds.
Trying to apply logic to something so inherently illogical as betting on a race nearly eight months in advance would be pointless. Sure, don't take odds less than 150-1, that's easy to say, but in May, who knows, 85-1 on Lord Nelson might look like strawberry shortcake. Some bettors will toss logic altogether and follow whimsy by betting on a horse with a clever name (Smart as a Fawkes, 300-1) or a place name (Dallas Skyline, 250-1), or on a horse that shares a name with a super hero (Daredevil, 85-1; and Tony Stark, 400-1), a sports hero (Mr. Jordan, 150-1) or even a super villain (Blofeld, 100-1), and some might bet because of occupation: lawyers on Bench Warrant, 200-1, for example, or because of aspiration, as in King of New York, 175-1. But most players, I suspect, will bet the futures to assume some measure of risk, to share, in other words, the precariousness of Derby dreaming; and then, having invested, they can follow as shareholders those dreams all the way to Kentucky.
But the Derby futures are most interesting, perhaps, in that they reveal what Vegas thinks of these horses. And Vegas has a high opinion of American Pharoah, the winner of the Del Mar Futurity. In the opening odds, he's the early favorite, at 40-1, for next year's Kentucky Derby.
"I don't want to get too far ahead of myself," said his Hall of Fame trainer, Bob Baffert, "but he's pretty talented. He's an exciting 2-year-old."
The question, of course, is whether he'll be an equally exciting 3-year-old. Always regarded as one of the best youngsters in Baffert's talent-rich barn, American Pharoah nevertheless finished fifth in his debut. Before he even got into the starting gate, though, he probably had lost the race. He misbehaved, acted up in the post parade and was, in his trainer's words, "a mess." And so for the Futurity, Baffert removed the blinkers American Pharoah had worn in his debut and put cotton in the horse's ears. Oblivious to any noisy distractions, the Pharoah behaved himself, took control after a hesitant start, led the field through an opening half-mile in 45.23 seconds and then drew clear to win by nearly five lengths, completing the seven furlongs in 1:21.48. In only his second start, without a victory on his résumé, he had dominated in a major stakes, running the final three-eighths of a mile in 36.25 seconds.
He'll stretch out to 1 1/16 miles in his next start, the Frontrunner Stakes on Sept. 27 at Santa Anita. And Baffert said he's confident that the son of Pioneerof the Nile will handle the added distance. "He hasn't given me a glimpse of anything that would tell me he doesn't want to stretch out around two turns," Baffert said.
I Spent It, at 50-1, is the second choice. The son of Super Saver has won two of three, including the Saratoga Special.
At 60-1 in the opening odds are Competitive Edge, Lucky Player and Hashtag Bourbon. Also a son of Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, Competitive Edge has won his two races by a total of 16 lengths. So why did he not open as the favorite in the Futures? Perhaps it's because of his pedigree. Although he has sparkled in his brief career, distance might become an issue for him: His dam, Magdalena's Chase, was a pure sprinter; she had little success and no wins beyond 6½ furlongs. When Competitive Edge won the Hopeful at Saratoga, he scorched the opening half-mile in 44.81 seconds, and from there everybody staggered home, including the winner, running the final three-eighths in 39.20. He's to make his next start Oct. 4 at Belmont Park, where the one-mile Champagne Stakes could be telling.
Lucky Player has prominence in the opening odds because of his victory in the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs. The race wasn't especially fast, and he enjoyed a perfect trip. Still, any Churchill victory weighs heavily in an early Derby reckoning. Hashtag Bourbon, although third, might have been more impressive in the Iroquois. He was blocked in traffic and lacked running room until nearly mid-stretch. Bold Conquest, the Iroquois runner-up who raced four wide, is 100-1.
Also at 60-1, even though they've never raced, are Jess's Dream and Cozmic One; the fascination with them descends from two of the most popular horses of recent years. Jess's Dream, who has had six published workouts, is out of the great mare Rachel Alexandra by Curlin. And Cozmic One, who has had but one published workout, is out of the great mare Zenyatta by Bernardini.
Some others worth noting perhaps are El Kabeir, a flashy and fast maiden winner who's aimed at the Champagne, at 65-1; Calculator, the Del Mar Futurity runner-up, at 100-1; and Carpe Diem, a handsome son of Giant's Causeway who won his debut at Saratoga, at 100-1.
But for a wager like this, based on the appropriateness of his name, one horse stands out, a colt that won the first two races of his career at Woodbine: Imperial Dream, at 300-1.