The 2012 Draft Day Manifesto
For the record, I bought the big salad, OK?
Whether you have read me for years or for just two sentences, it should come as no shock to you that I am a flawed human being. A list of all my failings and shortcomings would be a whole different 10,000-word article but for now, let's just focus on one area that still has plenty of room left for personal growth.
I am a petty person. Kissing cousins to bitter, my pettiness right now reminds me of "The Big Salad" episode of "Seinfeld." If you've never seen it, George is walking to lunch with his girlfriend when they run into Elaine. She asks George to buy her a "big salad" at the diner. After lunch, George pays for the big salad but the waitress hands the big salad to the girlfriend. Back at Jerry's apartment, the girlfriend then hands Elaine the big salad and Elaine thanks the girlfriend, not George, for the big salad.
George spends the rest of the episode bitter about the fact he didn't get the credit for being the one to buy the big salad. I understand these bitter, petty feelings. Because I was half-right, dammit.
Actual conversation I had a month ago:
Random guy: Hey, you're Matthew Berry, aren't you?
Me: I am.
Random guy: I took Vick No. 1. Thanks, genius.
Me: You realize we're in the bathroom at a Springsteen show, right?
Given we were both in front of urinals and that the Boss was about to go on, I thought there were at least a couple of issues that were, um, at hand and more pressing than a fantasy football pick from 10 months ago. But no, he wanted to talk. Because the Vick pick, as it happens, did not work out.
I was glad he brought this up, because I had no idea it didn't go the way I expected. Really. I was completely unaware. What happened, exactly?
Don't worry; this isn't about to be some long, whiny piece about the Vick pick. No, I already copped to that one not working out. Instead, this is to be a long, whiny piece about the other big tenet of last year's Manifesto.
It's that other part that is my big salad. I don't mind that I got Vick wrong. Say what you want but the reasoning was sound and if you employed the strategy, you agreed with me that the risk was outweighed by the enormous potential reward.
So the problem isn't that it didn't work out -- it's not my first blown call and won't be my last -- it's that it is the only thing folks remember. The thing that, 10 months later in a bathroom in New Jersey, less than 20 minutes from Badlands, mind you, is the first thing out of a random dude's mouth.
No one -- and I mean no one -- remembers the other part, which was not nearly as flashy but proved very true: that you need a stud quarterback last year above all else. That quarterbacks and tight ends had a much better chance of returning draft day value than running backs and wide receivers. My fundamental roster-building theory last year ended up totally correct. Get a stud quarterback and tight end, and then draft a ton of running backs and wide receivers in the middle rounds, knowing that some of them will pop. And as 2011 turned into the Year of the Quarterback it worked like a charm.
I just chose the wrong poster boys for it.
So that's the crux of my bitter pettiness. I take the lumps with the bad calls, it's part of the gig, but I'd be lying (and not human) if I said I didn't want a little love when it does work out. Especially when I know I will see tons of articles this preseason all about how you have to draft a quarterback early and why there are a bunch of quarterbacks in the first round. About how it's all about the consistency of quarterbacks and tight ends and to be aware of the unpredictability of running backs. And they'll all be right. A year later. Sigh.
OK, thanks for bearing with me. That was then. This is now. Let's see if we can't keep you one step ahead of the competition again this season. So without further ado, welcome to the 14th annual heart-stopping, Bruce-dropping, house-rocking, earth-quaking, booty-shaking, QB-taking, winner-making DRAFT. DAY. MANIFESTO!
They say winning starts on draft day, but they lie. Winning starts way before, when you are prepping for draft day. So let's get you ready. We're gonna be here for a while, so sit back, put your feet up and start with one basic understanding. Underline it, read it aloud and make it your Facebook status update: At its fundamental level, fantasy football is all about minimizing risk and giving yourself the best odds to win.
Everything leads back to that.
Everything.
I wrote it last year and I'm gonna keep writing it until it's not true. It's that important. So let me repeat it.
At its fundamental level, fantasy football is all about minimizing risk and giving yourself the best odds to win.
Period.
Remember that simple rule for this entire season. Before you make any decision -- whom to draft, trade, start and sit -- make sure you are following that basic principle: How risky is this move, and does it give me the best chance to win?
No one saw Cam Newton, as a rookie with a short training camp, having the greatest fantasy season ever for a rookie QB. No one thought Darren Sproles would have just five fewer fantasy points than consensus top-two pick Adrian Peterson. That Victor Cruz would outscore anyone else in the New York Giants' receiving corps. And Larry Fitzgerald. And Roddy White. That Laurent Robinson and Nate Washington would finish with more fantasy points than Greg Jennings or Dez Bryant. That Rob Gronkowski would have more touchdowns than top-10-drafted tight ends Jason Witten, Vernon Davis, Dallas Clark and Owen Daniels combined.
I can't predict the future. Don't claim to. Neither can you or anyone else. So don't try to.
All we can do is put ourselves in the best possible position to win then hope for the best. There are going to be things that surprise you along the way. Like, did you know that butterflies taste with their feet? That's what we're all about at TMR HQ: Info-tainment!
But don't get distracted by cocktail party trivia (A snail can sleep for three years!) as I want all of us to focus on one thing and one thing only: Everything we do from this point forward -- from draft day to the end of the season -- is entirely about putting ourselves in the best position for success. More specifically, giving ourselves the best odds to win every single week. That simple.
While we hear talk about total points and overall season performance, the truth is that fantasy football is a weekly game. Every week we pick up new players, we set our lineup, we try to construct our team to win that week, while keeping an eye on the rest of the season and the playoffs.
The difference between trying to win every week and trying to win every season is the difference between Steve...
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