The All-2016 fantasy team
Tristan H. Cockcroft [ARCHIVE]
ESPN.com
July 11, 2012
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If there is anything that 2012 has taught us, it's that the future is now.

This is a season that has given us:

- A 20-year-old in the midst of one of the most extraordinary fantasy seasons in history, pacing at .341-20-66 numbers with 43 stolen bases, projecting his per-game statistics to remaining Los Angeles Angels games. (Mike Trout)

- A 19-year-old who became the youngest hitter in the history of baseball to make an All-Star team. (Bryce Harper)

- Another member of the 2010 amateur draft's first round -- Harper was the first pick in that class -- ranked among the top five pitchers in fantasy. (Chris Sale)

From a writer's standpoint, too, the future actually is now. One of the more fun projects in which I'm involved (now annually) is my midsummer "All-20XX Team," which predicts the fantasy leaderboard four seasons from the current year. The first one I published for ESPN was written in 2008, and as it projected four years ahead, I titled it the "All-2012 Team."

Well, folks, the future -- the year 2012 -- is now here.

How'd I do? You can read that column, originally published around Memorial Day of the 2008 season … or the very same week that the National League's defending Cy Young award winner, Clayton Kershaw, reached the majors.

Sadly, four years later, there are no flying cars, colonies on Mars or all-you-can-eat-doughnut deals. Sigh. I was really counting on the last one.

And four years later, some of my choices for the "All-2012 Team" -- Scott Kazmir, I'm looking at you -- look terribly, terribly misguided. That's the fun of this, though. We engage in such exercises as a manner of exciting ourselves about what lies ahead. At the same time, as we do so, we need to understand that so many factors impact the future, and informed as we may be, there is no conceivable way we can predict the majority of it with pinpoint accuracy.

So, now, it's time to project ahead again, tabbing the "All-2016 Team," picking the fantasy studs four years from now. Use this list any way you wish; use it to make keeper-league decisions, to gain insights to players' expected career ceilings, or simply to debate the picks and point out how horribly, horribly wrong I'm going to be on many of them. It's all good.

Just as with past editions, the "All-2016 Team" follows these rules:

- A full, 23-man fantasy roster must be selected: That means two catchers; one apiece at first base, second base, third base and shortstop; one corner infielder and one middle infielder (these selections are listed at their primary positions); five outfielders; a designated hitter (must be an actual DH); and nine pitchers, broken down as six starters and three closers.

- Players are listed only at the position I believe they'll be playing in 2016. This pertains most to Miguel Cabrera, as I do not believe he'll still be a third baseman four years from now, therefore he was a candidate only at first base and DH.

- Players are picked based only upon how much fantasy value I believe they will have in the 2016 season and the 2016 season alone. The top players make the first team, and the rest are listed in ranked order as "best of the rest."

- Only fantasy potential is considered. That means defense is irrelevant, outside of its impact upon a player's position and amount of playing time.

Now, presenting the "All-2016 Team," with players' ages as of April 1, 2016, in parentheses:

d'Arnaud

Wieters

Catcher: Matt Wieters (29) and Travis d'Arnaud (27). If you find it odd to see Wieters tops on the list, it'd be understandable. Through this stage of his career, he has been more of a "lesson" player: The lesson being that even the most promising of catcher prospects takes considerable time before realizing his full potential … assuming he ever does realize said potential. But Wieters, despite falling short of most people's expectations through his first four big league campaigns, has exhibited steady growth in the power department, culminating in a 2012 season during which he has a realistic chance at 25 home runs, 90 RBIs and .200 isolated power. Those might not seem like a lot, but since 2004, only two catchers (Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez) achieved those benchmarks in a single year, and Wieters is currently 25 years old, with the bulk of his prime ahead of him. If you're going to pick a catcher who will hit at least 25 home runs in each of the five seasons from now through 2016, you're probably going to be picking one of two names: the second name on my "Best of the rest" list … or Matt Wieters.

D'Arnaud's keeper-league owners might want to heed the Wieters lesson, that is, if they're investing any significant stock in his .333/.380/.595 triple-slash line or 16 home runs in 67 games for Triple-A Las Vegas this season. Those stats have come in one of the more hitting-friendly ballparks (Cashman Field) in the most hitting-friendly league (Pacific Coast League) in all of minor league baseball, plus, there's the matter of d'Arnaud's acclimation to the big leagues once he arrives. But projecting four years forward, considering how complete his game, might he not challenge for a .300 batting average and 25 homers? I wouldn't want d'Arnaud over any of the "Best of the rest" picks for 2013, and probably not 2014, either. By 2016, though, he might have surpassed them all.

Best of the rest: Buster Posey (29), Carlos Santana (29) and Salvador Perez (25).

The sleeper: Gary Sanchez (23). After struggling through a down 2011 during which he was suspended and had his year cut short by a broken finger, Sanchez has rebounded nicely in Class A ball this season. Most encouraging for fantasy owners: He has 12 stolen bases in 73 games.

Notable exclusion: Jesus Montero (26). I'm not sure he'll still be catching by 2016, and while he has the bat to help fantasy owners as a designated hitter, he has regressed noticeably in terms of plate discipline during the past month, not to mention Safeco Field might always cap his power upside.

Hosmer

Votto

First base: Joey Votto (32) and Eric Hosmer (26). By 2016, Votto should, at worst, be only at the beginning of a career downslope, and he's signed through 2023, meaning the Cincinnati Reds are confident in his ability to play until he's nearly 40. Why shouldn't they be? He is one of the most complete players in all of baseball, devoid of any lefty-righty platoon split and his statistics not remotely Great American Ball Park-inflated. Rotisserie leagues could safely shift to 6x6 scoring with on-base percentage and slugging percentage replacing batting average between now and 2016, yet Votto's stock would improve.

Today, Hosmer's inclusion on the team might feel awkward. He's hitting .231 and has hit fewer home runs than 30 other first base-eligible...
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