Christopher Harris, Fantasy 9y

Fantasy football mock draft No. 1: 10-team standard

Fantasy, Fantasy NFL

I do a lot of mock drafts.

By September, it's safe to say my mocks will number far into double digits and will feel like triple. (As far as first-world problems go, "Too many fantasy football mocks" is up there with "My pet ostrich ate my first edition of 'The Fountainhead.'") But that first mock draft, though! It's really fun!

Ten ESPN experts, including yours truly, mocked one out on June 11. Given this winter's obsession with PSIs, a spring filled with concussion-related retirements, and the NFL's year-round media saturation in which we are mandated to chronicle every burp and whistle that comes from a football personality, it was a blast to just think about the game itself, and draft.

The main thing to keep in mind here is that, as fun as it was to do, this is a mock draft in June. Our experts experimented with strategies and made guesses about depth charts. We'll do (many!) more of these over the summer, and you'll see wildly different results. Also, realize that when you're in a league that consists entirely of wise guys, you have to adjust. Running backs are going off the board fast. Quarterbacks and tight ends will last seemingly forever. So your league's board probably won't resemble this one. Instead, think of this mock as a platonic ideal: a guideline, not a prescription.

(To that end: The first reaction some folks tweet when they read a mock draft's results is: "What idiots! Why can't I get these guys in my league?" My response? Boy howdy, you're right! The universe dealt you an unfair hand, forcing you to toil thanklessly while I sit on this here couch, eating bonbons and messing up fantasy squads.)

Here's how ESPN Fantasy's first official mock draft of 2015 went:

Musings: If Le'Veon Bell gets his suspension reduced, I'll be tempted to elevate him to the top spot, but currently there's no consensus No. 1 overall pick. I have Marshawn Lynch No. 1 in my ranks, but wouldn't argue strongly against any of six RBs in the top spot. Five of those guys were the top five here.

... Joyner views C.J. Anderson as the No. 1 player in fantasy, so he's gonna get him in most every mock we do. Anderson is only No. 9 in my RB ranks, so obviously we differ. I don't view Anderson as an ultra-talented player (he's fine), and I don't think any single RB working with latter-day Peyton Manning will achieve an elite yardage total (yes, even under Gary Kubiak). But I admit double-digit TDs are in play for Anderson, provided he stays ahead of Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman.

My Pick: Matt Forte. I think Forte is in the same mix as the top five players taken here, and am surprised by the dislike he inspired at our Fantasy Football Summit. Are there warning signs? Absolutely: Forte turns 30 in December and only produced three 100-yard rushing games in '14. But he topped 100 scrimmage yards nine times (tied for fifth among RBs), and found the end zone 10 times (tied for seventh). Sure, departed coach Marc Trestman loves throwing to RBs, leading Forte to set a record for RB receptions, but I'm guessing new coordinator Adam Gase saw that game film. Plus, John Fox's Chicago Bears are likely to go run-heavier to protect mercurial Jay Cutler. I didn't see anything on tape from Forte that makes me think he's lost his fastball. The Bears have O-line questions, but provided Forte stays healthy (he's missed five games in seven seasons), I'm not sure how he doesn't get to 1,500 total yards.

Musings: Fantasy's '14 MVP doesn't even go in the first round! But hey, I think we all understand why: DeMarco Murray left the league's best O-line, signed with a Philadelphia Eagles squad that also inked Ryan Mathews, and Murray is coming off the sixth-most single-season offensive touches in NFL history. (Murray is also the first reigning rushing champ to change teams in the offseason since '47.) But Berry made the right move grabbing Murray here. Big risk, potentially massive reward.

... I'm not here just to smooch tuchus, though. There are four shaky picks here, and the beneficiary is Clay. Odell Beckham will be divisive: He was fantasy's No. 1 WR from Week 6 forward last year, and his tape is legit, but even ODB's most strident supporters have to admit there's risk. He's done it once. He's 5-foot-11 and 198 pounds. He's spent the offseason with the spotlight on him. I can't take him ahead of bigger, multi-year proven WR commodities.

Mark Ingram, Melvin Gordon and Justin Forsett have great potential, but I'd select the super-elite receivers ahead of them. Joyner, Yates and Lipscomb had seen 11 RBs come off the board in the first 13 picks and decided they couldn't risk getting stuck with a shaky No. 2 back. But I view Ingram/Gordon/Forsett in the same class as Alfred Morris, Jonathan Stewart and Carlos Hyde. Clay was happy to cash in on Julio Jones here, and Calvin Johnson in the next round.

My Pick: Jeremy Hill I wanted Murray or LeSean McCoy, but they were rightly nabbed just ahead of me. I thought seriously about Demaryius Thomas; I took Hill because for me he represents the end of a tier clearly above the likes of Morris, Ingram, et al. Hill has the potential to be game-flow dependent because Gio Bernard is better as a pass catcher and blocker, but Hill feels like a lock for 10-plus TDs, and as a north/south runner he's a handful.

Musings: Wait! I take my Round 2 criticism back! If Lipscomb and Yates believe Alshon Jeffery and A.J. Green are basically equivalent to Julio and Megatron -- a defensible position! -- then they did just fine, especially if they're simply allergic to the likes of Lamar Miller and Stewart.

Let's talk QB strategy. In your league, the first QB is almost certainly not lasting until Pick No. 26. So you want to know whether you should consider one much earlier. Well, here are the last 10 QBs to be selected in the first round:

In the past five years, taking a QB in the first round has only been a disaster twice (Rodgers in '14 and Vick in '11), but it also hasn't paid off with first-round value very often (only Brees in '12 and Rodgers in '11). You might argue that at least the top QBs tend to hold solid value, as opposed to the two or three first-round RB busts we see every year. I can't argue with that. If you're picking at the end of the first round and are risk averse, the chances are pretty good that if you take Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck, you'll get a rock-solid return on your investment. But you're unlikely to hit a home run with such a pick, so you'll have pressure to nail some later-round RBs and/or WRs.

... Carpenter is just trolling me now, staying away from RBs for three straight rounds.

My Pick: Randall Cobb. I was happy with my first two picks. I wasn't happy with this one. Give me a choice between a combo of Hill/Cobb or Thomas/Stewart? I'd probably take the latter: Cobb won't sniff 12 TDs again in '15 unless Jordy Nelson's hip is worse than we understand. I do think Cobb is a safe bet for 80 grabs and 1,100 yards, and having a piece of Rodgers is good policy. But in retrospect, I wish I'd taken Thomas.

Musings: Hyde at No. 36 (19th among RBs) is a shot worth taking. Karabell gets a beefy second-year banger with the potential for 250-plus carries, and can play him at flex. On talent and depth-chart location, Mr. Hyde deserves to go higher. The worry is an uncertain O-line and the possibility that the San Francisco 49ers fall off a cliff in '15.

... It took a serious shoulder injury in '14 and a move to the Pacific Northwest for Jimmy Graham's value to get rational. I look at the 32-pick difference between Graham and Gronk and think McCormick got himself a steal. Graham has 40 career red-zone TDs and the Seattle Seahawks tend to get in the red zone a lot. I fear Graham won't last this long in most of your drafts, but if he does, grab him.

... Incidentally, we might as well talk TE strategy. Why is taking Rob Gronkowski in the first round this year not a great idea, while Graham in the fourth makes me happy? A little thing called history: Two TEs have ever been drafted in the overall top 20 in fantasy drafts (Graham 10th in '14, Gronk 14th in '12), and neither provided even top-30 VBD value. For as much as you loved Gronk's '14 season, he finished 26th in VBD; even if you remove Week 17 (in which he rested), he would've finished 17th. Really good. Not a first-rounder.

My Pick: DeAndre Hopkins. On talent, I'd take Nuk before Cobb. But the Houston Texans will enter the fray with either Ryan Mallett or Brian Hoyer under center. Oy. Mike Evans, T.Y. Hilton and Hopkins are 11th, 12th and 13th in my WR ranks, so I'd have preferred either of the other two dudes. That said, if the Texans are smart they'll put Hopkins among the league leaders in targets in '15.

Musings: Bruce Arians secretly would rather not even play any running backs. Just give him five wideouts on every play, willya? The Arizona Cardinals still don't have a legit feature RB on their roster after selecting David Johnson this spring, meaning Andre Ellington should dominate snaps again until he breaks. I'd prefer a sturdier option for Yates here, but I admit when he's healthy, Ellington is an open-field menace.

... I'm with Joyner: I think Bell is getting a bad rap. Don't talk to me about 3.9 yards per carry. YPC is a borderline-useless stat except at the margins. To me, Bell is an Eddie Lacy clone; ask the Dallas Cowboys how they felt about tackling both men in the playoffs. From Week 10 forward last year, Bell was fantasy's No. 7 RB, tied with Hill.

... Want to throw up in your mouth a little bit? Take a look at the fifth round of last year's inaugural mock: Cobb (nice); Percy Harvin (ugh); Keenan Allen (blurgh); Victor Cruz (ouch); Matthew Stafford (zing); Cordarrelle Patterson (barf); Vernon Davis (oof); Michael Crabtree (oops); Roddy White (ow); Rashad Jennings (meh). You're right! I give up! You should have all our jobs! (Or else this stuff is just super-hard to predict before we see regular-season games.)

My Pick: Latavius Murray. I can't make myself believe that some combination of Trent Richardson and Roy Helu will be a reason that Murray doesn't win the Oakland Raiders starting job. Then again: It's the Raiders. Plus, Murray has 82 career carries. But there aren't many humans with Eddie George size and Jamaal Charles long speed. I have Murray rated ahead of six RBs who have already been selected (including Forsett in Round 2), which probably means he'll be in the CFL by November.

Musings: Russell Wilson has never eclipsed 15th in single-season passing yards, but his rushing is just so sweet. Speaking generally, I have no problem with Berry taking Wilson here; in your home draft, this is probably about where he'll go. But this wasn't the right crowd for that; the next QB didn't go for 21 picks. And as you'll see, Berry wound up missing out on a key handcuff.

... I agree with McCormick that Allen Robinson has the raw gifts to be a future No. 1 NFL wideout. But you can't take him here, Jimbo. His QB would have to take a major step forward just to be mediocre, and Robinson is coming off a fractured foot. He's a later-round flyer; the next 16 WRs selected in this draft are higher than Robinson in my ranks.

... Amari Cooper -- whom I love -- is the first rookie wideout off the board. Man, did I want him to land somewhere other than Oakland! I sifted carefully through Derek Carr's tape this winter, hoping to be impressed. I wasn't. Remember how I told you Nick Foles would crash to Earth last year? That's how I feel about Carr (though clearly, expectations are lower for Carr). His bad decision-making might get better, but I'm skeptical his shaky throwing accuracy will; he probably should've had 20-plus interceptions in '14. Cooper could be a star through sheer volume, though.

My Pick: Golden Tate. Tate also went in Round 6 of last year's first mock, and here's what I wrote: "How can you tell Golden Tate will disappoint in '14? Because he's one of my favorite breakout candidates, and I have (Titus Young) such a tremendous record (Ryan Broyles) of predicting star seasons (Jahvid Best) for ancillary Detroit Lions weapons (Kevin Smith)." Well, Tate finished 13th in WR fantasy points and 42nd overall in VBD, so that was decent analysis after all. For '15, I have him a bit higher than most folks, and that corresponds to me having Calvin Johnson a bit lower. Megatron enters his ninth NFL year having had serious medical troubles in each of the past two seasons; drafting Tate for my bench puts me in a position to benefit if Johnson's leg woes recur.

Musings: The ancillary tight ends start to go here, which begs the question: Is there a legit second TE tier above the huddled masses? I don't think so. I grant you that Travis Kelce has rare speed for his size, and on another squad, I might use a higher pick on him. But with the Kansas City Chiefs, bleh. His average yards at the catch last year was 5.2, 20th among 24 qualified TEs. Because of Alex Smith, Kelce belongs to the feast/famine TE ranks. As for Greg Olsen, he's as solid, but he usually doesn't give you big weekly peaks.

... I wanted to see Berry (who took DeMarco Murray in Round 2) grab Mathews -- fantasy's most essential handcuff in '15 -- in Round 6. He didn't; Lipscomb pounced. Nobody can pretend to know how the Eagles' oft-injured backfield homage to Mr. Glass will work out, but I'd bet the house that Mathews will start games.

... Andre Johnson has sleeper potential. But as I wrote last week, he could totally burn Yates' plans for him. He couldn't run past anyone late last year. (Johnson, not Yates.)

My Pick: Kevin White. I have White ahead of Cooper among rookie WRs, but I acknowledge Cooper makes for a safer pick. Barring injury, there's almost no way White's target total will approach Cooper's, and White isn't really a route runner yet. But neither was Kelvin Benjamin in '14, and he was terrific. At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, White is a possessor of 4.35 speed, a 36.5-inch vertical and a 123-inch broad jump. That kind of stupid athleticism puts him in Jones and Demaryius Thomas territory. With Jeffery on hand, stardom may not come right away. But it will come. For a deeper look at rookie wideouts and whether last year's class changed the game, check out this cover story I wrote for ESPN Magazine.

Musings: It's a four-QB round! Even if folks in your league aren't this patient, as long as you only have to start a single QB in your 10-team league, you're well advised to wait. I'd say Cockcroft is the only highway robber here, getting Peyton Manning a cool 67 picks below his average draft position last year, but I'd be perfectly OK with Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger or Cam Newton as a starter.

... Through their minicamps, the Pittsburgh Steelers have talked about Martavis Bryant like they mistook him for Dez. As you're aware, I put no stock in anything players and coaches say, and you shouldn't either. But Bryant is a nice high-upside play here for Carpenter. As Antonio Brown gains the attention of every defense, Bryant -- a high-end deep threat at 6-foot-4 -- will make plays.

... Doug Martin goes 10 picks after Charles Sims, which tells you all you need to know about how far the Muscle Hamster has fallen. He just can't stay healthy, plus from watching his '14 tape, I'm not sure he's got the same oomph after several leg injuries. That said, Yates got the better end of the deal. Martin should still be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' preferred starter when he's healthy, with Sims as more of a passing-down option.

My Pick: Ameer Abdullah. In a 10-team league, it's time to start taking shots on high-upside players. As I said earlier, I'm a fan of Joique Bell. I think he keeps the Lions' starting gig, and Abdullah dukes it out with Theo Riddick for ancillary touches and returns kicks. But Abdullah has legit play-to-play upside, and if I'm wrong, he could produce some great work as a starter. He's not particularly big or fast and had fumbling problems in college, but he's got incredible change-of-direction and is a nightmare in the open field.

Musings: Go ahead and keep dreaming, Mr. Clay, but Michael Floyd looks like a dud to me. I was hesitant about him in '14 because of the presence of Larry Fitzgerald, but it turned out Fitz wasn't Floyd's biggest problem. Even before Carson Palmer got hurt, Floyd was just a mess; I reviewed his game tape this winter and was surprised to see how many potentially big plays he left on the table with shaky hands. (He was only credited with two drops all year, but that was generous.) If someone wanted to argue John Brown should be the highest-drafted Cardinals WR, I couldn't shut them down.

... Maybe Roddy White was only hampered by a bad ankle last year. Maybe. But he'll be 34 in November. I like Cockcroft taking a chance on him here, but no earlier.

... Want to know how much people respect the Cowboys O-line? Darren McFadden went 130th in last year's mock draft. This season, with yet another craptastic campaign under his belt, Berry took him 90th. Hey, why not? None of us really expects DMC to win the leading role in Dallas, but just in case ...

My Pick: Charles Johnson. I badly wanted Breshad Perriman in this spot. Dang it, Joyner! Perriman has similar freak athletic ability to my Round 7 pick Kevin White, so if I could've doubled up my chances at a Evans-style rookie breakout, I'd have done it in a heartbeat. Instead I took Johnson, who has to deal with Mike Wallace coming aboard the Minnesota Vikings, but who became everything optimists believed Patterson would be in '14. A former super-deep sleeper of mine, the 6-foot-2, 215-pound Johnson is a prototype flanker who'll make more midrange plays with Wallace taking off as the Z receiver. He's going way over his total of 58 targets last year.

Musings: One piece of fun to be found in experts' mocks is sniping someone else's must-handcuff. Joyner did it to Clay here, snapping up Jerick McKinnon, who'd have top-20 value if Adrian Peterson gets hurt after his year off. But Yates and Lipscomb avoided such troubles. Yates made sure he grabbed Knile Davis as a 'cuff for Charles; Davis is probably fantasy's No. 2 handcuff behind only Mathews. Meanwhile, Lipscomb knows DeAngelo Williams has precious little left in the tank, but he also knows D-Willy will probably start while Le'Veon Bell is out.

... If McCormick is getting the Tom Brady who was fantasy's No. 4 QB from Weeks 5 to 16 last year, he'll be thrilled and potentially have a trade chip (he also drafted Newton). I have some doubts: that New England Patriots O-line has questions in its interior. Regardless, it's worth noting that Jimmy Garoppolo didn't get drafted in this mock, though I'd expect him to be a September waiver add.

My Pick: Matt Ryan. Know your league. Ryan is my No. 6 QB this year with Kyle Shanahan liberated from Cleveland and calling plays for the Atlanta Falcons, though if you told me you have Ryan No. 9 or No. 10, I'd understand. I just don't draw a major distinction among the QB candidates and I knew most teams in this league would wait on their starter and eschew a backup. Ryan is a good-not-great player, but he's finished seventh or eighth in QB fantasy points in four of the past five seasons. I'll take it.

Multi-Round Musings: Once again, your results will probably differ from ours: Heading into Round 11, half of the teams hadn't selected their starting TE. Maybe you'll feel pressure to choose one before now, but then again, maybe not. They're all the same! You'll get about 600 yards and six TDs from almost all these guys, and you won't know when the two or three big games are coming. (And no, this isn't a reason to take Gronkowski in the first round! See above!)

... Five rookie and four sophomore RBs went in this three-round span. As it should be! This is the time for lottery tickets. I took Jeremy Hill in Round 12 in last year's inaugural mock. Granted, lots of stuff has to go right for you to hit on players like this, but when it does, you win.

... The ballad of the '14 Seahawks D/ST -- which was 20th in fantasy points after Week 6, before turning it around and finishing third overall by season's end -- scared the experts straight. Last year in this mock, the Seahawks D/ST went 71st overall. Now they go 107th, and the third D/ST doesn't go until Round 14. Slowly, surely, our experts are learning. I'll never take a defense before Round 15, though.

My Picks: Lorenzo Taliaferro, Buck Allen, Jason Witten. I guess you could say I don't trust Forsett this year. Yes, he was fantasy's No. 8 RB in '14 and topped 80 scrimmage yards in 11 games, plus new OC Trestman figures to involve him even more in the passing game. But to me, Forsett smells like a one-year wonder. In the draft chat, I jokingly substituted Steve Slaton's name for Forsett, and that's my worry: Undersized guy hits it big, everyone starts relying on him, and he gets hurt. Forsett had never topped 1,000 scrimmage yards in any of his prior six seasons. I'll stash Taliaferro and Allen, and see what happens. As for Witten, I'll take a low-end fantasy starter with utter depth-chart security. He's fine.

Multi-Round Musings: I admire Cockcroft's gumption, believing in Josh Hill as his only tight end. Of course, if Graham's New Orleans Saints replacement doesn't do anything in September, Tristan will have waiver-wire options.

... Lipscomb gave Cockcroft exactly 13 chances to handcuff Arian Foster before throwing up his hands and stealing Alfred Blue. I don't think Blue is a particularly good player, but Foster owners must handcuff Blue to him.

... McCormick mentioned that he doesn't particularly believe in the Panthers defense, but Carolina gets the Jacksonville Jaguars and Buccaneers in the season's first month, after which they'll likely be waiver bait.

... We would've had a perfect Kicker Round at the end, but Yates simply had to have Adam Vinatieri. In retaliation, do we expect that the 42-year-old Vinatieri will soon have his Anton Lubchenko moment?

My Picks: Kenny Stills, Ravens D/ST, Cody Parkey. With DeVante Parker undergoing foot surgery and potentially unavailable for training camp, Stills is worth a shot. Ryan Tannehill had trouble finding Wallace deep the past two years; with Stills' great straight-line speed aboard, we'll get definitive proof whether the problems were with Wallace or Tannehill.


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