As a community, we have been doing a lousy job projecting who the best players will be each season. The past 12 years, our hit rate on the top talent, according to average draft position (ADP) rankings, has been only 35 percent.
It's confounding. These are the players you'd think would be the most predictable. Yet in a 15-team league, in the first round, we are drafting only five or six players who are actually returning first round-caliber earnings, according to my valuation engine.
After just eight weeks, this season is already falling in line with that trend.