There are two logical explanations behind a player's current stat line, at least those that reside, from a rate perspective, far from his 2015 projection:
• He has been somewhat lucky or unlucky, perhaps getting a favorable bounce, playing in a few extra hitting-friendly (for hitters) or pitching-friendly (for pitchers) environments or facing a few weaker opponents. Look, streaks happen, as much as they're nearly impossible to predict or explain.
• Something has changed in his game, be it improving or declining skills, an altered role, an injury or something else.
The first example is far more likely at this stage of year -- 17 days and one Sunday night of baseball -- and it's our duty as fantasy owners to recognize and appreciate the little influence these numbers should have on our player valuations. Most of the time, your answer resides in that group.
But it's the latter group that requires our readjustment, and a swift one. These are the players who have moved the most substantially in my going-forward rankings below comparative to my preseason rankings, and for each, there's a logical explanation.
Today, let's isolate some of the more extreme performers from the hot- or cold-starter groups, whom I've been examining from a deeper statistical standpoint. Yes, their samples are small -- especially their next-level stats -- but that doesn't mean that they're not worth a look. For some, there's evidence that their skill sets are changing. For others, like the first one on the list, there isn't. That difference, incidentally, can often help identify opportunities on the trade front.
Chris Carter, 1B, Houston Astros: This is owning a three-true-outcomes player (a player's for whom the majority of his plate appearances result in a home run, walk or strikeout); patience is required. Due to their infrequency making contact, they're susceptible to lengthy slumps, but their power coupled with their patience helps them enjoy comparably long hot spells, like the one during which Carter clobbered 15 home runs while batting .292 in a 31-game stretch from Aug. 2-Sept. 5, 2014. That Carter's slump has occurred at the onset of a season has his owners panicking that something has changed from a skills standpoint. I've looked, and it hasn't, not really. Consider his metrics from a patience standpoint:
2014: 9.8 BB percentage, 28.4 chase percentage, 20.9 swing percentage at non-competitive pitches
2015: 11.8 BB percentage, 30.3 chase percentage, 21.9 swing percentage at non-competitive pitches
* Non-competitive pitches are those not even close to the strike zone
Carter also enjoyed three comparably poor 13-game stretches in 2014, including one -- the first example -- that occurred right before a hot spell of six total home runs in a seven-game period:
June 13-July 1: .095 AVG, 0 HR, .099 wOBA, 0 HR, 44.2 K percentage, 2.3 BB percentage, 31.0 chase percentage , 25.5 swing percentage at non-competitive pitches
Sept. 14-27: .111 AVG, 0 HR, .206 wOBA, 33.3 K percentage, 14.8 BB percentage, 25.8 chase percentage, 17.6 swing percentage at non-competitive pitches
April 4-18: .122 AVG, 0 HR, .221 wOBA, 42.9 K percentage, 14.3 BB percentage, 29.2 chase percentage, 24.7 swing percentage at non-competitive pitches
I know it's difficult to ignore a player's seasonal stat line when it looks as poor as Carter's. But I think his slump is just sample-size noise, and if it spawns a panic in you, give me a call. I'd be happy to take him off your hands.
Evan Gattis, C, Astros: If Carter is to be discussed, Gattis must be as well. I've discussed my Gattis theory before -- the league switch causing him to be facing a larger percentage of pitchers he hasn't seen before -- and the numbers back it up: Only 26 percent of his plate appearances thus far in 2015 (14 of 54) have come against pitchers he had previously seen; 67 percent of his plate appearances in 2014 came against pitchers he had seen previously in 2013. Perhaps that's not enough to earn your patience, but Gattis' batted-ball profile remains unchanged, as he continues to pull the ball, as well as hit fly balls, at a similar rate to those of both 2013 and 2014. If there's anything bothersome about his 2015 to date, it's his regressed performance against breaking pitches, as he's 2-for-14 (.143 AVG) without an extra-base hit against them, with a 61 percent miss rate on his swings that's nearly double his 35 percent of 2014.
Still, that's also potentially small-sample noise -- it's a 14-plate appearance sample, after all -- and I firmly believe it points to that league-switch adjustment.
Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians: Hey, a positive! Bauer is off to a scorching start, with the majors' second-most strikeouts (26) and a below-1.00 ERA (0.95). Still, a closer look reveals that little has changed with the one, significant weakness in his game, his control: He has a 14.7 percent walk rate (it was 10.8 percent from 2012-14 combined), and has thrown pitches in the strike zone 48.1 percent of the time (48.5 percent from 2012-14).
So how has Bauer managed to post a 34.7 percent K rate (it was 20.8 percent from 2012-14), a 31 percent miss rate on swings (21 percent 2012-14) and .031 hard-hit average allowed (.166 2012-14)? There's a slightly increased reliance upon his slider/cutter: 4 percent more, with our pitch-tracking tool classifying them more as sliders in 2015, which again points to potential sample-size noise. Bauer has filthy, difficult-to-hit stuff, but the same questions about his ability to control it remain, meaning that it's a dangerous thing to project a sub-1.30 WHIP or declare him a trusted member of your staff just yet. We first need more evidence of actual skills improvement.
Devon Travis, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays: He has been an oft-requested player to analyze, thanks to his status as the second-best second baseman on the Player Rater. But again, it's been 17 days. Travis has for the entirety of his professional career been a contact-hitting, moderate-patience type, with a 84.4 percent contact that's close to his 86.5 percent career minor league number, but a 4.1 percent walk rate that's beneath his 8.7 percent minor league rate. Three of his seven extra-base hits -- including two of his three home runs -- have come against lefty specialists, so wait until his split numbers have more sizable samples before determining that he's worthy of an everyday role on your squad.
Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees: His is one of the hot starts that should capture your attention -- or at least he has mine -- being that his initially low ranking was influenced by his advancing age (he'll turn 40 in July), his year-long absence and six-year pattern of statistical decline leading into his missed 2014. But after 17 days, A-Rod looks somewhat rejuvenated, and the hot start has thrust him into a prominent role for the Yankees, earning starts in both the Nos. 2 and 3 lineup spots already. Consider these facts:
Hard hit average: His .222 is his best since 2010's .244.
Line drive percentage: His 20.7 percent per FanGraphs was better than he has had in a single year from 2002-13 except for 2003 (22.8 percent) and 2012 (22.2).
He's batting .323/.447/.710 against right-handed pitching, after he had batted just .265/.340/.450 against them from 2011-13.
The curious question with A-Rod remains how healthy he'll stay through the course of 2015, but with him again looking like an integral part of the Yankee lineup, a case can be made that he's a top-15 fantasy third baseman once more.
Jon Lester, SP, Chicago Cubs: With Lester it's all a matter of how much you believe his struggles to date are the product of the "dead-arm period" he first reported on March 20. Lester's average fastball velocity has been down through three regular-season starts -- 91.2 mph, compared to 91.3 in 2014 and 92.6 from 2009-14 -- but not to an extent that would signal anything more than his claim. This isn't an uncommon thing even for veteran pitchers, so patience is probably warranted, at least for another 3-4 Lester starts.
Jose Quintana, SP, Chicago White Sox: A quick scan through his numbers shows a lot of bad luck, but little else from a skills-changing perspective. Thus far, Quintana has a .365 batting average on balls in play (13th-highest out of 107 qualifiers) and 54.6 left-on-base percentage (sixth). Hitters are making harder contact than usual and it's almost as if they know his fastball is coming: They have batted .317/.378/.561 against it, with a .220 hard-hit average. There's no reason here to think that much, if anything, has changed.
Lorenzo Cain, OF, Kansas City Royals: Look, I'll be honest: The reason I was initially conservative with his ranking was that he has had a difficult time historically staying on the field, with a DL stint in each of his past three seasons and a grand total of 144 missed team games during that time span. From a per-game perspective thus far, Cain hasn't done all that much that was off his 2014 pace, with the lone exception being a penchant for driving the ball more: He has a 39.5 percent ground-ball rate after 51.9 percent in 2014, and a .255 hard-hit average after a .105 percenatge last year. And again, those are precariously small samples, so it's not enough to say, "Cain is now a 25-homer hitter." He could be developing into one, now that he's finally healthy -- he hasn't missed consecutive team games since May 3-4 of 2014 -- but a more reasonable rest-of-year projection is something closer to 11-13.
Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals: Speaking of the Royals, Moustakas' usage to date is particularly interesting to fantasy owners: He has been the team's No. 2 hitter in each of their first 14 games -- including seven against left-handed starters -- after never having made a single start in that spot previously in his career. You read that right, half of Moustakas' starts have come against left-handers, after he had batted just .211/.267/.328 against lefties in the first four seasons of his big-league career. That is just one area of his game in which Moustakas has most improved, batting .333 (9-for-27) with only one strikeout, a .185 hard-hit average and mere 33.3 percent ground-ball rate. The small-sample-size caveat still applies, but it's a promising early sign.
The other Moustakas adjustment that warrants our attention is his all-field hitting approach, which represents a distinct change. We remember that opposite-field home run he hit against Jeff Samardzija on April 6, but so far, Moustakas has hit 40 percent of his balls in play to the opposite field, after he never managed more than 25 percent in any of his previous four years. This was something that dated back to spring training, as pointed out by FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan, and it could mean that, in Year No. 5, Moustakas has finally arrived as a reliable all-around, full-season hitter.
New ESPN position eligibility
The following players added new position eligibility within the past week. As a reminder, position players need to appear 10 times at a new position to gain in-season eligibility, while pitchers need to make three starts to earn starting-pitching eligibility or five relief appearances to earn relief-pitching eligibility.
Pedro Alvarez (1B), Mark Canha (OF), Chris Carter (1B), Ross Detwiler (SP), Yunel Escobar (3B), Kevin Gausman (RP), J.R. Graham (RP), Kendall Graveman (SP), Odubel Herrera (OF), Chris Heston (SP), Daniel Norris (SP), Tyler Olson (RP), Roberto Osuna (RP), Chris Owings (2B), Hanley Ramirez (OF), Marcus Semien (SS), Stephen Vogt (C), Ryan Zimmerman (1B).
The following players are within two games of earning new eligibility, with their total games played noted at the listed position: Gordon Beckham (3B, 8 games), Alberto Callaspo (3B, 8 games), Logan Forsythe (1B, 9 games), Sean Rodriguez (1B, 9 games), Andrew Romine (3B, 8 games).
Going-forward rankings: Week 3
Here are the updated, rest-of-season top 250 rankings. These are based upon an ESPN standard league of 10 teams and Rotisserie 5x5 scoring. Click here if you want the rankings sorted by position.
* 2015 season ranking overall. Ages are as of April 1, 2015. Position eligibility is determined based upon a minimum of 20 games, otherwise the position the player appeared at most, in 2014, or a minimum of 10 games in 2015.