The 2015 seasonal sample remains small, but as is often the case this early in a season, it's the pitchers who have first begun to shake up the fantasy baseball rankings.
The rationale is simple: Pitcher playing time pales in comparison to that of hitters. An everyday hitter will come to the plate 600-plus times in a year, while a full-time rotation member might not pitch much more than 200 frames. That differential in sample size means quicker shifts in pitching stats from start to start, and it forces us to readjust our thinking with certain pitchers.
After all, think of all the measuring tools we have these days for pitchers, many of which aren't available in spring games: Pitch types, pitch values, velocities, location, movement, and then, of course, all your traditional measuring factors like FIP, K-to-walk ratio, batted-ball rates, ERA, WHIP, etc.
Yes, it was just one start, or one week's relief action for some of these names discussed below. But reviewing the tape, as well as the stats, demands some adjustments.
Shane Greene: He is the first pitcher since Felix Hernandez in 2007 to record consecutive starts of at least eight shutout innings in his team's first 10 scheduled games of a season. Greene did it in much the same way he did in his 14 starts last year: He enjoyed a 72.9 percent strike rate, 68.5 percent first-pitch-strike rate and 48.9 percent ground-ball rate. The major league averages for those three categories in 2014 were 64.0, 60.5 and 46.6 percent. With above-average pitches -- going by PitchF/X run value -- in a two-seam fastball, slider and curveball, a developing changeup and improving control, Greene has a lot of Doug Fister in him -- and if he continues to grow at the rate that he has, maybe some Corey Kluber (more so the 2013 model, which was still very good).
It's time to adjust any Greene seasonal projection to something in the range of a 3.25-3.50 ERA, meaning that if he can increase his strikeout rate, he'll still be under-ranked as my No. 56 starting pitcher this week.
Jimmy Nelson: He was a member of my preseason "Kings of Command," but had I seen the kind of curveball he displayed in his 2015 regular-season debut, I'd have surely ranked him as a clear-cut, draft-worthy player in any fantasy format -- including our 10-team shallow, mixed one. Nelson threw 24 curves, generated five misses on six hitters' swings against it, and totaled four of his nine K's using it. It was a lethal weapon particularly against lefties: He threw it 42 percent of the time against them. Fantasy owners should be aware that curveballs tend to minimize platoon splits. In 2014 alone, lefties had a .246 weighted on-base average against curves, compared to .267 by righties.
Here's the most staggering Nelson stat: He's owned in just 6.8 percent of ESPN leagues. It's astonishing that his hasn't risen more than that since his Saturday outing, but he has risen in my rankings to the point he's a definite "own" in any fantasy format. Frankly, I might still be undervaluing him as my No. 62 starting pitcher.
Adam Ottavino: After Rafael Betancourt saved Monday's game, I had some fear that Colorado Rockies manager Walt Weiss might "stick with the hot hand," as many managers do with closers. Betancourt's story is a great one -- he's fresh off Tommy John surgery and will turn 40 years old on April 29 -- but Ottavino is the one with better stuff at this stage of their respective careers. He possesses a well-above-average slider, but what has really made Ottavino stand out in recent seasons has been his improving command: His K-to-walk ratio since joining the Rockies and converting to full-time relief in 2012 has gone 2.38-2.52-4.38-10.00 (granted, the last number is a five-game 2015 sample). He's the most deserving of any of the Rockies' relief options to get every save chance they have this season, and remarkably, he remains available in nearly 90 percent of ESPN leagues.
Jeurys Familia: Speaking of worthy closer candidates, Familia's value rose after news broke of Jenrry Mejia's 80-game suspension for PEDs, and while Bobby Parnell, health willing, probably will return to the New York Mets' closer role, I've got enough doubts about Parnell's health that I'd heavily invest in the hard-throwing Familia. Familia possesses a 96-mph sinker and slider, two well-above-average pitches, though that combination does reveal the lack of anything elite to use against lefties; they managed a .357 wOBA against him in 2014, while righties managed .179. But Rafael Soriano has enjoyed a productive career as a big-league closer despite somewhat wide platoon splits, and Familia does call a more spacious venue his home. I predicted in March that Familia would pace the Mets in saves this season, and if I could've put a number on it at the time, I'd surely throw something in the 30s now.
Trevor Bauer: Though I didn't vault him into my top 250 overall, Bauer enjoyed a healthy bump after he tossed six hitless innings against the Houston Astros in his 2015 debut, and he's on the fringe of joining it next week (we'll see how this Wednesday start impacts his results). It's his control that's a question, as he walked five batters in the game and has averaged 4.40 per nine innings in his big-league career.
Anthony DeSclafani: He couldn't have missed my top 250 by much, meaning that he's now a must-have in any league with 12 or more teams, as well as every NL-only format -- and I can make the case that 10-teamers should aggressively stream his matchups and hesitate when cutting him for others. DeSclafani's slider is big-league quality -- only six big-league starters have a greater run value with theirs thus far -- and it could be his ticket to a K-per-nine ratio in the eights.
Here are the updated, rest-of-season top 250 rankings. Click here if you want the rankings sorted by position.
Notes: Current 2015 season ranking overall. Ages are as of April 1, 2015. Position eligibility is determined based upon a minimum of 20 games, otherwise the position the player appeared at most, in 2014, or a minimum of 10 games in 2015.