Key 2015 position battles

Besides the player questions, many roles are up for grabs this spring, just as in every one that preceded it. Today, let's identify these spring training position battles, the fantasy implications for each but, most important, let's make a bold prediction as to the winner of each.

As you'll see, "battles" like the one for the Arizona Diamondbacks' third-base position -- a probable match of Yasmany Tomas and Jake Lamb -- isn't on the list, for the simple reason that Tomas is seemingly in the "it's his position to lose" spot. Those examples, of players who should have the jobs (especially health-related ones) are excluded; they'll be discussed in other columns.

1. Boston Red Sox center and right fields: It'll be one of the most-discussed battles of spring training, especially after manager John Farrell's Feb. 20 proclamation that Shane Victorino, if healthy, is his right fielder. That'd presumably pit Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo against each other for the center-field gig, though Farrell made another head-scratcher of a comment on Feb. 24 when he declared Jackie Bradley Jr. part of a three-man race for the position, saying that Bradley is "the best [defensive] center fielder in baseball." Oh, and let's not forget that lost in the shuffle is Allen Craig, owed another $26.5 million, who made 82 appearances in right field in 2014. The result of this battle could have widespread fantasy implications; Betts and Castillo could be effective top-100 overall picks if we could only get a promise that either -- and preferably both -- will have 600 plate appearances.

So what drives the Red Sox's decision-making: Production? Experience? Salary? Betts (2.1 WAR in 2014) was the most productive of the five. Victorino (nine years and 92 days) has the most experience and is the most expensive ($13 million in his "walk" year). But you might be surprised to learn that Castillo is actually the second-most expensive in 2015 ($10.5 million) and the one with the most guaranteed money remaining on his deal ($67 million). It's a virtual lock that the team will choose its two starters from those three, with Bradley a probable defensive replacement and Craig settling for right field/first base/DH table scraps.

The fear for fantasy owners, however, is that Victorino stays healthy through Opening Day, the team decides to keep Bradley and Craig on the roster as trade bait, and the loser of the Betts-Castillo battle returns to Triple-A Pawtucket. That's the very real downside of this five-man battle, though said downside has odds comparable to Victorino's staying healthy; he began 2014 on the DL and has landed on the DL before Memorial Day in three of the past four seasons. Tristan's prediction: Castillo in center and Betts in right, Victorino on the DL and forced to settle for fourth-outfielder duty upon his return.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers center and right fields: Like the Red Sox, the Dodgers have a surplus of outfielders and could use a corner to free up some of their clutter. It's their center field mix that captures fantasy attention, where rookie Joc Pederson, a 30/30 man in the minors, will effectively battle Andre Ethier for a job (Ethier would presumably handle right field, with projected right fielder Yasiel Puig shifting to center). Right-handed hitters Chris Heisey and Scott Van Slyke will also be in the mix as potential platoon partners, if not for Pederson, then perhaps for Ethier and/or left fielder Carl Crawford.

Pederson deserves better than a platoon role, having batted .299/.422/.598 against left-handed pitchers at Triple-A Albuquerque, outstanding numbers even after accounting for the hitter-friendly nature of the Pacific Coast League. But considering his inexperience, as well as Van Slyke's career .268/.362/.530 slash rates (.380 wOBA) against lefties, manager Don Mattingly might be tempted. It's also conceivable that Ethier, a .312/.385/.538 lifetime hitter in the Cactus League who had batted .300-plus in each of the past three springs, might excite Mattingly enough to the point that Pederson is granted a brief amount of early-season minor league seasoning. Tristan's prediction: Pederson wins the job but is used more sparingly than your usual regular, platooned with Heisey and/or Van Slyke at least initially. Fantasy owners gnash their teeth every time they see a Dodgers lineup without Pederson's name in it in April and May, making him more of a midseason than draft-day target.

3. Toronto Blue Jays closer: One could also discuss the Blue Jays' fifth-starter battle in this place, because both are potential roles for their 22-year-old right-hander with considerable fantasy appeal, Aaron Sanchez. The team says it will stretch out Sanchez as a starter this spring, pitting him against Daniel Norris, but Sanchez is also a compelling closer hopeful because he lacks much in the way of top-shelf competition there, with Brett Cecil, Marco Estrada, Aaron Loup and Steve Delabar the most logical ninth-inning alternatives.

Keith Law's No. 30 overall (and No. 15 pitching) prospect entering 2014, Sanchez profiles as a potential future-ace starter, but possesses the high-90s fastball and lethal curveball that could make him an instant sensation as closer. This isn't a blow-hitters-away skill set; he generates an extreme number of ground balls as well as weak contact, which is a good thing to do at Rogers Centre. Frankly, Sanchez's utility for our purposes -- at least in 2015 -- would be greater if he emerges as the closer. Long term? Dynasty/keeper owners surely are (and should be) rooting for him to land the final rotation spot.

As for the closer alternatives, while a committee is possible, Cecil is the next-most-prominent candidate to watch. A converted starter who previously possessed a wide platoon split, Cecil as a reliever eased off his changeup and went heavy with the curveball, narrowing that gap, boosting his ground-ball rate and elevating his 16.6 percent K rate as a starter to 28.7 percent as a reliever. If sold at a single-digit price in your AL-only auction, he could provide some of the best bang for your buck among possible save-getters. Tristan's prediction: Sanchez's 2015 role is that of starter, and in a too-close-to-call match with Norris, Sanchez might well settle for a role as sixth starter waiting in Triple-A (though it's a coin flip for me). Cecil closes, even if it's called a "committee" initially.

4. Cleveland Indians fifth starter: Oh, if only the Indians hadn't signed Gavin Floyd, who, if he's healthy, they insist will be their fourth starter. That leaves one spot for a four-man mix, including T.J. House, Zach McAllister, Danny Salazar and Josh Tomlin, with the first three the most intriguing candidates from a fantasy perspective. Salazar is the name fantasy owners will watch most, after he was the No. 179 overall selection on average in 2014 drafts, but I've already outlined here the kind of potential either House or McAllister could have in the role. If it's any of those three, don't sleep on the winner.

Tristan's prediction: Salazar emerges, McAllister claims a setup-man role, House either sticks as a long man/sixth starter or returns to Triple-A Columbus, and Tomlin, who is out of options, is an unfortunate cut. After all, it's extremely difficult to see Salazar, who had a 3.50 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 25.2 percent K rate and an average of 93.3 pitches per start -- up significantly from 87.2 in his first 18 career starts -- in his 12-start stint to close out 2014, being in the "it's his job to lose" situation entering camp.

5. Chicago Cubs third base (and second base?): As with Sanchez and the Blue Jays, this one is compelling more because of one of the candidates -- Kris Bryant, the No. 1 prospect on Law's list -- than the collective competitors themselves. Bryant tops practically every prospect list imaginable entering 2015 because of one number: 7.0 percent, which is his home run per plate appearance rate thus far as a professional; that's 42 homers when projected to 600 PAs, incidentally. Two other numbers, however, force this into "battle" position: 26.6 percent, which is Bryant's strikeout rate and a significant threat to his initial batting-average contribution in the bigs; and 11, which is the number of days to begin the season that the Cubs need to keep Bryant in the minors for them to buy an extra year of service time (meaning pushing back free agency by a season, which is precisely what the Houston Astros did with George Springer in 2014).

If the Cubs play the service-time game, Mike Olt, a similar big-power, high-K's slugger (albeit one with a lower ceiling than Bryant's), could fill in for at least those first 11 days. Or the Cubs could consider a second-base contender from the group including Arismendy Alcantara, Javier Baez and Tommy La Stella. Tristan's prediction: Olt is the Cubs' third baseman until April 17, at which point Bryant is recalled. Alcantara is the team's second baseman, partnering with La Stella, and Baez gets a little more seasoning in Triple-A.

6. Houston Astros closer: Closer battles always matter in fantasy. Why? Do the math: There are 30 teams in baseball, so only 30 possible full-time closers at any given time, and saves represent one-tenth of the standard Rotisserie scoring. That's why the Astros' mix of longtime setup men -- Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek, Chad Qualls and Tony Sipp, plus Josh Fields (OK, so "longtime" is a stretch with him) -- will be under the microscope. Qualls is the "experienced" one, leading the pack with 70 career saves (in 120 chances), but Gregerson has been the most productive recently, with 4.3 WAR the past three seasons combined. Neshek, however, isn't far behind, with 3.5, and Sipp, the lone lefty, could factor into a committee, if the team goes that route. Fields, meanwhile, could be an attractive fallback for the team, if it regards him as a more integral future piece. Tristan's prediction: Even if it's announced a "closer by committee," Gregerson gets an end-of-camp endorsement as the leading candidate/first man up, emerging as the clear go-to guy quickly. He has narrowed his platoon split to nearly zero, while whittling down his walk rate and boosting his ground-ball rate. There are practically no blemishes on his recent record; he's ready and deserving of a closer gig.

7. Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop: This pits Jordy Mercer, he of the sixth-ranked 9 defensive runs saved and seventh-ranked 9.0 fielding runs (those are rankings among all shortstops), against Jung Ho Kang a 40-homer hitter in Korea last season. What's of greater importance to the Pirates, defense or offense from their shortstop? It's possible that the answer is a combination of both, just as it's possible that the loser of the battle might remain fantasy-relevant -- well, in NL-only leagues, most likely -- as a backup at second and/or third base. But fantasy owners looking for the most bang for the buck will be rooting for Kang to emerge victorious. Tristan's prediction: Kang wins and Mercer settles for a heavily used defensive replacement role all over the infield.

8. St. Louis Cardinals fifth starter: One might think this is a player-specific battle, but the truth is that whoever emerges from the pack should be relevant, be it Carlos Martinez, Marco Gonzales or Jaime Garcia. The main difference among the three is upside: Martinez is the one with a top-half-of-the-rotation future, whereas Garcia hasn't been healthy enough to make more than 20 starts in a season since 2011. Gonzales, meanwhile, could be a low-risk, mixed-streaming or NL-only value pick if he's the victor, being that he had considerably better control as a high-minor-league-level starter (5.5 percent walk rate in Double- and Triple-A) than as a major league swingman (13.5 percent). Fantasy owners will be abuzz about Martinez's spring progress, but those who do are discounting the contribution Gonzales could provide ... or the short-term offerings of Garcia. Tristan's prediction: Gonzales is the "surprise" winner, being that Martinez still could have a role as a setup man.

9. Seattle Mariners shortstop: Who's it going to be, Brad Miller, who batted .410/.478/.836 during 2014 Cactus League play and hit three home runs in his first nine regular-season contests, only to provide his owners practically nothing thereafter, or Chris Taylor, who batted .385 in his first 18 games after being promoted but only .226 the rest of the way? The winner could be a handy mixed-league middle infielder or AL-only starting shortstop, with Miller being the one with a hint more power and Taylor the one with a bit better eye at the plate (though that has really only manifested itself in his walk rate, rather than his strikeout rate) and better defense. Fantasy owners would probably prefer Miller to emerge and they should; he's the one who on the high end could be a 12-homer/20-steal kind of performer, whereas Taylor's best might be 8/25. But if they split the job, neither will have more than deep AL-only relevance. Tristan's prediction: While Miller was generally regarded the better prospect during their minor league days, I tend to think defense wins out in these battles -- otherwise moves itself into a partnership -- so I'm picking Taylor.

Other position battles worth watching

Philadelphia Phillies third base: Lower-ceiling Cody Asche takes on fresh-off-a-disappointing-2014 Maikel Franco, which looks like an obvious "win" for Asche, buying Franco a couple months' additional seasoning (plus a delayed free agency/arbitration clock). ... Chicago White Sox second base: It's not a top-nine battle if only because just one combatant, speedy Micah Johnson, has the kind of fantasy potential to generate headlines. However, he's unlikely to emerge on Opening Day ahead of Emilio Bonifacio, Gordon Beckham or Carlos Sanchez. ... Texas Rangers left field: It's a mix-and-match bunch featuring Kyle Blanks, Michael Choice, Delino DeShields Jr., Ryan Ludwick, Carlos Peguero, Ryan Rua, Nate Schierholtz and Jake Smolinski, which has the look of a surefire Ludwick/Schierholtz platoon. Blanks, DeShields and Rua would be particularly interesting AL-only picks if any pulls off the upset. ... Washington Nationals closer: It's conceivable that the team could afford Casey Janssen an opportunity to compete with Drew Storen but I consider it highly unlikely. ... Baltimore Orioles second base: The recent signing of Everth Cabrera could signal a battle for the starting job between him, Jonathan Schoop and possibly Ryan Flaherty, as much as it could've set Cabrera up for a utility infielder role. Cabrera's progress bears watching, as he could be a sneaky source of speed in AL-only leagues if he receives enough at-bats.