Minutes are certainly the most popular way of looking at how many chances a player has to score in the NHL. But buried at the back of the stats table, and often ignored, is perhaps a more telling way of looking at things. The length of a shift by an NHL player can vary greatly depending on any number of unpredictable outcomes in a game with a bouncing rubber puck. But how often that player is sent out there from the bench by the coach? That is a little more constant.
The oft-ignored shifts statistic can be used as another measure of potential. Rather than look at a player's points per minute and then look for players who could play more minutes, we will look at the points per shift. It's a minor distinction, but it gives us a completely different result.
The difference is that not all shifts are created equal. Alexander Steen leads the league in shifts per game among forwards at 28.8, and plays 20:25 per game in average ice time. Linemate David Backes is third in the league with 27.4 shifts per game, but plays only 18:42 in average ice time. Those shifts, despite the fact that they're linemates, are not created equally.
From a real life versus fantasy perspective, we could also argue that the number of times a player is tapped on the shoulder by his coach to go on the ice would be a better indicator of his responsibility that the sum total minutes of those trips on the ice. The coach can control who goes on the ice, he can't always control when they come off.
What we are looking at here is shifts per point. By taking the number of total shifts a player has and dividing by their points, we see approximately how many shifts, on average, a player has been taking between points. Jakub Voracek not only leads the league in points, but leads the way in this statistic as well, taking 20.1 average shifts per point.
As you might expect, a lot of the leaderboard is made up of the who's who of the NHL. It's what we should expect. But what we are looking for is players with a low total number of shifts, which could either increase through added responsibility from the coach or simply by staying healthy. Most of the top players all have well over 1,000 shifts at this point of the season.
Kris Versteeg, F, Chicago Blackhawks
24.8 shifts per point, 607 shifts
Although it has been hinted at that Versteeg will be out a little bit longer than his original four-week projection, it should be noted just how solid the winger has been in a scoring-line role for the Hawks. Versteeg is in the same points per shift neighborhood as Vladimir Tarasenko and Claude Giroux. Now, the Hawks aren't necessarily going to give Versteeg a huge spike in shifts per game, given that the Jonathan Toews line is always going to play more minutes. But when Vertseeg returns to health, and presumptively rejoins Patrick Kane and Brad Richards on a line, look out for continued elite production. It should also be noted that Brad Richards is top 50 among forwards for shifts per point (28.6) and should also be in for a boost with Versteeg's return.
David Krejci, F, Boston Bruins
28.1 shifts per point, 619 shifts
Krejci's total shifts number is suppressed due to the lower-body issue that lingered with him for the first three months of the season. But we'd like to point out that his pace isn't terribly behind the numbers he put up last season -- at least on a per-game basis. His 28.1 shifts per point is down a little from closer to 24.7 shifts per point last season, but his production was also hampered in October and November as he dealt with injury. Just looking at his 18 points in 19 games during the months of October and January, you can see that the same player that finished No. 14 among skaters on the ESPN Player Rater last season is lingering in the background. With David Pastrnak finally offering some stability on the top line, now might be the right time to invest in Krejci for the remainder of the season.
Kyle Palmieri, F, Anaheim Ducks
29.1 shifts per point, 407 shifts
Quietly settling in as a winger on the Ducks' underrated second line, Palmieri's 14 points don't jump off the page until you dive into how he got there; his 14 points look a lot better when you see that his shifts per point are better than players like Logan Couture, Radim Vrbata and Max Pacioretty. Ryan Kesler has been on the ice for nine of Palmieri's points this season, and the line with Matt Beleskey has only recently settled into place following a bout of injury to Corey Perry. Palmieri could continue to be a quiet contributor to fantasy owners, especially since his very decent production so far has only earned him a role in 6.7 percent of ESPN leagues.
Josh Bailey, F, New York Islanders
32.9 shifts per point, 690 shifts
Playing next to a center that just tied an All-Star game scoring record shared by Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux is a pretty good situation. John Tavares tied the mark by notching four tallies, joining Gretzky, Lemieux, Mike Gartner, Vincent Damphousse and Dany Heatley. Tavares may not have had an exceptional first half of the season by the lofty, elite expectations we have for him, but 45 points in 46 games isn't anything to sneeze at, either. Tavares went into the break red hot, with three consecutive two-point games. And that's where Bailey comes in. There's been a carousel of contributors on the Isles' top line with Tavares and Kyle Okposo. Bailey's six points in the final three games before the All-Star break mark the first time this season that third member of the line has really shone. Bailey has been playing down the depth chart at times this season, leaving his total shifts low. His scoring per shift, however, is better than players such as Bryan Little, Scott Hartnell and Marian Hossa. A few more shifts per game, now that he is on the top line, is probably going to be a good thing.
Andre Burakovsky, F, Washington Capitals
35.0 shifts per point, 622 shifts
Similar to what Bailey experienced with the Isles, Burakovsky got hot on his team's top line right before the All-Star break. The rookie has only 18 points in 37 games, but his shifts per point are better than players like Blake Wheeler, Taylor Hall and T.J. Oshie. Given a chance to remain on the top line with Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom, Burakovsky has some serious fantasy upside. Of course, coach Barry Trotz isn't known for promoting rookies to key depth chart positions. Keep your fingers crossed for Burakovsky, but don't hold your breath.
Forward rising and falling
Daniel Sedin, F, Vancouver Canucks (down seven spots to No. 46): Overall, Radim Vrbata has been a boon to the Sedin twins. After a down campaign in 2013-14 for both Daniel and Henrik, Vrbata's scoring presence has them both of them back on pace for a 70-point season. However, Vrbata seems to have trumped Daniel's scoring. Despite being on pace for an additional 20-plus points than last season, Daniel is on pace to match his dismal 16 goals from 2013-14. As we have discussed many times in the past with the Sedin twins, Daniel's propensity for goals over assists is what gave him an edge in value. Both brothers are pacing low for shots on goal, as well. This is far from being dire straits for the twins, but it's worth notching both of them down in value as the trend continues through this season.
Tomas Plekanec, F, Montreal Canadiens (up nine spots to No. 126): Scoring the vast majority of his points this season on a line separated from Max Pacioretty, it's interesting to see Plekanec get a boost in production with Pacioretty as a linemate. The recent line juggle for the Habs landed Plekanec with Pacioretty (and Dale Weise). The result was a recent four-goal explosion. It's notable, however, that Plekanec has managed 32 points in 45 games while very rarely saddling up with Pacioretty, the team's offensive catalyst. Like Kesler with the Ducks, Plekanec is asked to do his scoring separate from the team's top producer. It gives you a certain level of comfort while investing in Plekanec to know that he'll be just fine if he doesn't stay on a line with Pacioretty.
Defensemen rising and falling
Jacob Trouba, D, Winnipeg Jets (up 11 spots to No. 199): Some of the minutes he was getting earlier this season are probably gone for good, with Dustin Byfuglien now patrolling the blue line, but that doesn't change Trouba's modest upside as a fantasy defenseman. Worth slotting in as a No. 4 defenseman, Trouba doesn't require a truckload of ice time to get points. He relies on his natural ability on offense and tendency to join in to the action in the offensive zone. Of all the Jets' defensemen who went down to injury, Trouba is the one you want to grab now that he is back.
Goaltenders rising and falling
Sergei Bobrovsky, G, Columbus Blue Jackets (down 37 spots to No. 110): There are suggestions that Bobrovsky tweaked the other side of his groin this time. He missed a month earlier this season with the reciprocal injury, so it's probably fair to assume the same this time. He should absolutely be kept handy as a fantasy commodity, as Bobrovsky will be primed to close out the season in elite fashion when he returns.
Until then, Curtis McElhinney is tabbed as the immediate replacement, but the more interesting option will be Anton Forsberg, who is up from the AHL as backup (for now). McElhinney is a 31-year-old backup journeyman who struggled to fill in for Bobrovsky earlier this season. Forsberg (who, to be fair, also struggled in the NHL earlier this season), is a 22-year-old AHL rookie and is currently fifth in the AHL in goals-against average (2.04) and top 10 in save percentage (.927). We wouldn't pick up either goaltender right away (there are other options out there with more upside -- including Devan Dubnyk, Carter Hutton and Petr Mrazek -- but it will be worth watching to see if Forsberg earns some more responsibility while Bobrovsky is out.
Quick Hits
• Erik Cole and Brett Ritchie are questionable for a return to action on Tuesday, but both should be monitored. The Dallas Stars' offense has been impressive of late, and both have potential this week if they are healthy.
• Tyler Johnson missed the All-Star game due to injury, but is eligible to play for the Tampa Bay Lightning on Tuesday because he attended the celebrations. Whether he will play or not will depend on how severe his lower-body injury is. If he is out, it hurts the potential of Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat until he returns.
• Steve Mason is edging close to a return to the Philadelphia Flyers' crease. Ray Emery and Rob Zepp have been a pretty dismal duo as his replacement. When ready, Mason will be back to starting a ton of games and circling close to No. 2 fantasy goalie value.
Updated top 250, rest-of-season rankings
Here are the updated rankings of the top 250 forwards, defensemen and goaltenders in fantasy hockey from now through the end of the season:
Updated Fantasy Hockey Top 250
Note: Sean Allen's top 250 players are ranked for their expected performance in ESPN standard leagues from this point on, not on the statistics that have already been accrued. ESPN standard stats include goals, assists, power-play points, shots on goal, plus/minus, penalty minutes and average time on ice for skaters, and wins, goals-against average and save percentage for goalies.
Note: Sean Allen's top 250 players are ranked for their expected performance in ESPN standard leagues from this point on, not on the statistics that have already been accrued. ESPN standard stats include goals, assists, power-play points, shots on goal, plus/minus, penalty minutes and average time on ice for skaters, and wins, goals-against average and save percentage for goalies.