During the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season, I managed a rotisserie team so weakened by injury that tracking the intricacies of Wilson Chandler's contract with the Zhejiang Lions in China became a priority. Chandler would play only eight games for the Denver Nuggets upon his return to American hoops that spring, but in the subsequent three seasons, including this current campaign, Chandler has quietly become an effective fantasy asset.
Chandler recently earned a starting role over Danilo Gallinari at small forward, and the shift could continue, given the disparate production of the two. Over the first eight games of the season, as you'll see in the table below, Chandler struggled with limited minutes and usage. Over the past seven games, however, he has converted a spike in usage percentage (from 18.7 to 21) into efficiently valuable fantasy production. For confirmation of his ascent, Chandler ranks third on our Player Rater among small forwards over the past seven days.
Wilson Chandler's statistical splits over first 15 games of 2014-15 season
The most notable shift beyond the surface metrics might just be Chandler shooting a career-low 6.6 percent of his shots from the dreaded "deep-two" range (2-point field goal attempts from past 16 feet). Nineteen percent of Chandler's career field goal attempts have come from this universally low-percentage (unless you are Dirk Nowitzki) range, so this marks a significant shift in approach for the seven-year vet. Conversely, 3-pointers now consume 48.5 percent of Chandler's attempts, which is both a career-high allocation and a sizable leap from his career .304 shot rate from deep. With a 30 percent leap in ownership in ESPN leagues over the past week, the market is waking up to Chandler's rise, but the versatile asset -- did I mention he's eligible at both shooting guard and small forward? -- remains free in nearly half of ESPN leagues. After a wonky, turkey-induced schedule this past week, half of the league's teams enjoy a full four-game slate for the next fantasy scoring period while 14 are set with three-game schedules. Only the Charlotte Hornets are taking some time to digest with the lone two-game week in the NBA.
"R" matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup), and are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics, their opponents' numbers in those categories, and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the right lists the team's total number of games scheduled ("G") as well as home games ("H"), and lists the overall rating from 1-10 for that team's weekly schedule ("R").
Team trends: Notes and news from around the league
We The North: The Toronto Raptors currently claim the crown as the best team in the East. While still just 18 percent of the way into the regular season, we're learning the winning formula seems to come from a variety of meaningful angles, as they have posted nearly five points more per 100 possessions than the second-ranked offense in the East. Instant offense coming from Louis Williams has him seated in the top 20 in NBA usage while averaging 20.5 points and three 3-pointers in just more than 23 minutes per night over the past six games, all wins. Williams is available in more than 60 percent of ESPN leagues. Also, Patrick Patterson and Jonas Valanciunas are both strong daily plays against softer frontcourts, including an upcoming matchup with the Cavs.
Highest opponent 3-point percentage
Porous perimeters: Pursuing the most generous defenses for 3-point efficiency can be a valuable, if simple, tool to deploy when chasing down spot-start shooting specialists. Help defense, working around screens properly, boxing out ... a series of elements influences poor defense versus the deep ball, but it's becoming clear the five teams to the right are particularly suspect to 3-point allowance. You can find a complete breakdown of opponent stats in this useful database.
Player pickups: Identifying players available in half of ESPN leagues
Brandan Wright (26.6 percent owned), Dallas Mavericks: Fifth among centers on the Player Rater over the past 15 days and ninth over the past week, Wright is chasing history with a ridiculous 77.2 percent field goal percentage. Much like with Golden State's Marreese Speights, we can't sweat the lack of minutes and instead must focus on the invaluable influence Wright's field goal percentage (81.3 percent over the past five games) can have in all formats of the game. Despite playing just 19.2 minutes per game on the season, Wright ranks 11th in points on "close shots" (defined as points scored when a player touches the ball within 12 feet of the basket, excluding drives) with 5.7 per game, ahead of the likes of Marc Gasol and Derrick Favors. If you are into chasing history with the last spot on your roster, we learn from The Dallas Morning News that "Wright would shatter the NBA record for field goal percentage in a season, owned since 1972-73 by Wilt Chamberlain, who made 72.7 percent of his shots that season."
Mo Williams (16.3), Minnesota Timberwolves: In the wake of injuries to Ricky Rubio and Kevin Martin, Williams assumes key duties as the Wolves' most proven point guard commodity, as well as the team's premier perimeter shooter. As we discussed recently in a fantasy hoops blog, Williams' attempts from deep have leapt from 1.8 per night in the six games in place of Rubio to 5.5 attempts per game over the past two games. For a cheap source of 3-pointers, assists and even a healthy rebounding rate, Williams is available in more than 80 percent of ESPN leagues.
Marreese Speights (14.4), Golden State Warriors: While he's likely best suited for 12-team leagues or 10-team formats with expanded roster demands, the former Florida Gator has never been gun-shy, as he's currently 18th in usage rate in the league, just ahead of teammate Stephen Curry. Given just 15 minutes of tick per night, Speights shoots essentially whenever he gets his hands on the ball, but as long as he's shooting 60.4 percent from the field as the second unit's scoring microwave, the lack of minutes can be forgiven.
Danny Green (45.4), San Antonio Spurs: Just ahead of Chandler on the Player Rater over the past week among small forwards sits Green, who continues to offer a singularly rare combination of 2.3 3-pointers per game and 1.4 blocks per night. The Spurs enjoy the coming week's lone "10" rating, with a busy four-game slate versus generally inviting opponents, assuring Green meaningful minutes and valuable usage.