With more than half of the fantasy regular season in the books, it's safe to say that a baseline of expected performance for team defenses is taking shape. By looking at your players' fantasy strength of schedule for the remainder of the season, you have a great metric to use when evaluating the likelihood that they will improve, maintain or regress in performance in the future.
For instance, which quarterback would you rather have for the rest of the season, Colin Kaepernick or Jay Cutler? On the surface, it looks like an edge for Cutler, as he leads Kaepernick by four fantasy points over the first seven weeks 123-119. Throw in the fact that his top two receiving options, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, are clearly better than any wide receiver the San Francisco 49ers have, and you'd probably feel more confident in taking Cutler. But allow me to introduce this wrinkle: Based on the fantasy strength of schedule for quarterbacks, which is defined as the average number of fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position by each remaining opponent, Kaepernick faces the second-easiest schedule going forward while Cutler faces the second-toughest schedule. Based on this, Kaepernick can be projected to score approximately three more fantasy points per game than Cutler. That may not sound like a lot, but when the difference between making your playoffs may be 8-5 versus 7-6, you don't want to be passing on opportunities to improve your starting lineup.
Most Favorable Remaining Schedules for QBs
By Opponents' Fantasy PPG Allowed
On target
Receiving yardage is the most variable form of yardage, which makes sense because so much of it is dependent on where the quarterback elects to throw the ball. Because of this, variations in the number of times a player is targeted by his quarterback can greatly change a player's value. So while your receiver may have scored 10 fantasy points in a given week, you need to know if it's reasonable to expect that he can repeat that type of performance on a routine basis. If he had one target that he turned into a 40-yard touchdown, you need to realize that he was one quarterback decision away from posting a goose egg. Conversely, if your wideout had 12 targets and finished with 108 receiving yards, his prospects for consistent fantasy production are significantly greater. In the chart below, you'll see all the players averaging six or more targets, the number of routes they average per game and their average depth of target.
Note: Targets are not an official NFL statistic. Based on the methodology that stat services use, the number of targets listed may be different than target values listed elsewhere. The philosophy of ESPN Stats & Information is to count a target when the analyst thinks the pass was actually intended for the player. Therefore, if a quarterback is obviously throwing a ball away, the analyst will not record a target for that pass. This gives a truer representation of what a target is -- i.e., a pass thrown to a particular player with the intent for that player to catch the ball -- and therefore should be more helpful to the fantasy community.
Targets Report, Past 4 Weeks
Fantasy insights based on Week 7
• In the 20 games that Julius Thomas has played since the beginning of the 2013 season, he has at least one touchdown in all but four games, and he's had multiple touchdowns in five of those 20 games. Thomas is special in that his fantasy value isn't dictated by targets, but rather by his scoring prowess.
Among the 11 rookies who have been targeted at least 25 times this season, only Allen Robinson and Brandin Cooks have not dropped a pass. Both are getting a steady dose of targets and should be owned in every format, with Robinson being slightly more valuable at this point because of his average depth per target.
• Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller combined to average 8.3 targets per game over the past four weeks. With both now out, Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown figure to get the lion's share of the work. In his previous four seasons, Dixon had been targeted only a total of nine times. Playing for the Philadelphia Eagles, a team known for passing to the running back position, Brown managed just 30 targets over the past two seasons. Look for a change in game plans from the Buffalo Bills going forward as neither is an accomplished receiver, which might bump the value of tight end Scott Chandler.
• While many people are focused on the return of Mark Ingram to the New Orleans Saints, don't overlook Travaris Cadet if you are in desperate need of a starting running back in deeper leagues. Cadet doesn't get many carries, but he has 15 receptions in his past three games, which could make him a sneaky spot start, particularly in point-per-reception formats.
• Before Week 5, I wrote about the potential undervaluing of Larry Fitzgerald because of statistical anomalies within his red zone performance. While that still holds true, anyone expecting a return to elite performance should consider his declining target totals over the past five years. Starting in 2010, his average targets per game are: 10.9, 9.6, 9.4, 8.5 and 6.5. Fitzgerald is nothing more than a fourth wide receiver in 10- and 12-team leagues.
Big plays and up close
In Week 7, eight players totaled three rushes that gained 10 or more yards each: Denard Robinson (5), DeMarco Murray (5), Arian Foster (4), Russell Wilson (3), Jerick McKinnon (3), Eddie Lacy (3), Chris Ivory (3) and Branden Oliver (3). That is the same number of players with at least three rushes of 10 or more yards as in Week 6.
Meanwhile, eight players had at least two carries from the opponents' 5-yard line or closer: Stepfan Taylor (3), Matt Forte (3), Darren McFadden (3), Tre Mason (2), Ronnie Hillman (2), Lamar Miller (2), Joique Bell (2) and Ahmad Bradshaw (2). From that group, only Mason failed to score on at least one of those carries.
• If you own Andre Ellington, Taylor is a must-add immediately. While Ellington has outperformed Taylor in their brief careers, Taylor was drafted in 2013 by the Arizona Cardinals one round earlier than Ellington. Don't view Taylor as a threat to Ellington being the primary carrier but as solid insurance in case Ellington's foot issues get worse.
• During the past three weeks, only DeMarco Murray and Arian Foster have more rushing yardage than Branden Oliver. With Ryan Mathews still not practicing, Oliver is performing well enough to supplant Mathews as the San Diego Chargers' primary running back.
• With 4.32 speed in the 40, there's no doubt that Denard Robinson has the speed to play the running back position. The question will be if his 6-foot, sub-200-pound frame can handle double-digit touches on a consistent basis. He's definitely worth adding based on potential, but it shouldn't surprise anyone if Robinson is on the shelf sooner than later with an injury.
• Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball have each had 55 rushing attempts for the Denver Broncos this season. Hillman has nine rushes of 10 yards or more, Ball has just four. If you are stashing Ball on your roster, you probably can find a better option elsewhere.
Red zone play selection
Below is a list of all teams sorted by the number of snaps they have had in the red zone. For the purposes of this analysis, pass plays are defined as all snaps that resulted in a pass attempt or sack, with all other snaps being classified as rushes.
Red Zone Breakdown, This Season
Quick takeaways
• The Colts have run seven more red zone plays than the Jaguars, Falcons and Raiders combined.
• The Bears throw on 70 percent of their red zone opportunities, while the 49ers pass on just 44 percent of theirs. Think about that variance and realize that Cutler is ahead of Kaepernick so far this season only because of that differential. Since the start of the 2001 season, NFL teams split red zone opportunities 49.8 percent passing to 50.2 percent rushing, so it's a good bet that the Bears will see their high passing percentage in the red zone begin to regress toward the norm, which is bad for Cutler's fantasy prospects.
• When you see that the Rams run on 53 percent of their red zone carries, Tre Mason becomes just a bit more valuable. It appears that Mason has been given the starting gig with Benny Cunningham set to be used as a change-of-pace back. With that in mind, Mason should be the top free-agent pickup of the week.
Until next week, thanks for reading.