Of the 39 NFL players who have been targeted at least four times in the red zone this season, 30 of them have at least one touchdown. And 18 of them (46 percent) have scored multiple times during these opportunities. In general, red zone targets are a great way to judge if your player's value is being artificially inflated or deflated based on his actual production in this area of the field.
For instance, Larry Fitzgerald has been targeted six times so far this season in the red zone. He currently has zero receiving touchdowns. The average number of red zone receiving touchdowns scored for receivers with at least six red zone targets is 2.5. This equates to an expected 15 fantasy points based on the leaguewide average production for those players. Those "missing" points would give Fitzgerald 23 fantasy points, which would place him tied for 40th among wide receivers. Then add another eight points (his would-be per-game average) to compensate for his bye week and he'd be the 25th-best wide receiver. Those are subjective adjustments, but in the end calculating what is different from the norm will allow you to identify that Fitzgerald has been more unlucky than bad and therefore makes a good buy-low candidate.
Most Red Zone Targets, 2014 Season
On target
Receiving yardage is the most variable form of yardage, which makes sense because so much of it is dependent on where the quarterback elects to throw the ball. Because of this, variations in the number of times a player is targeted by his quarterback can greatly change a player's value. So while your receiver may have scored 10 fantasy points in given week, you need to know if it's reasonable to expect that he can repeat that type of performance on a routine basis. If he had one target that he turned into a 40-yard touchdown, you need to realize that he was one quarterback decision away from posting a goose egg. Conversely, if your wideout had 12 targets and finished with 108 receiving yards, his prospects for consistent fantasy production are significantly greater. In the chart below, you'll see all the players averaging six or more targets, the number of routes they average per game and their average depth of target.
Note: Targets are not an official NFL statistic. Based on the methodology that stat services use, the number of targets listed may be different than target values listed elsewhere. The philosophy of ESPN Stats & Information is to count a target when the analyst thinks the pass was actually intended for the player. Therefore, if a quarterback is obviously throwing a ball away, the analyst will not record a target for that pass. This gives a truer representation of what a target is -- i.e., a pass thrown to a particular player with the intent for that player to catch the ball -- and therefore should be more helpful to the fantasy community.
Targets Report Through Week 4
Fantasy insights based on Week 4
Despite the quarterback issues in Tennessee, Kendall Wright makes an intriguing buy-low candidate, as no player with at least 6.5 targets per game has fewer catches per game than Wright. Wright had 94 receptions last year and it's not as if the Titans' quarterback situation was substantially better last year.
This season might very well go down as the Year of the Tight End, as the emergence of Larry Donnell, Travis Kelce and Delanie Walker should have many people wondering why they invested draft picks in Vernon Davis, Jason Witten or Jordan Cameron. All three of these fantasy newcomers are among the league leaders in targets.
Almost 27 percent of Randall Cobb's and 25 percent of Jordy Nelson's total targets have come in the red zone. With those two players converting a combined 33 percent of those red zone opportunities into touchdowns, look for Aaron Rodgers to continue to pass more than run in that area.
Allen Robinson has been targeted 15 times during the six quarters that Blake Bortles has been the Jacksonville Jaguars' quarterback. He has 11 receptions for 111 yards during that time. While that's a small sample size, that is the totality of Bortles' body of work, so it's worth noting and makes Robinson a free-agent target if your team needs depth at wide receiver.
Big plays and up close
There were five NFL players who totaled three rushes that gained 10 or more yards each: DeMarco Murray (6), Matt Forte (3), Le'Veon Bell (3), Jerick McKinnon (3) and Frank Gore (3). That is four fewer than the number of players with at least three rushes of 10 or more yards in Week 3, which is partly attributable to fewer games played because of the scheduling of byes.
Meanwhile, there were only six players who had at least two carries from the opponent's 5-yard line or closer: Lamar Miller (4), Toby Gerhart (3), Matt Forte (3), Matt Asiata (3), Eddie Lacy (2) and Andre Williams (2). Of this group, only Forte failed to score from this distance. For comparison, last week there also were six players who had multiple rushing opportunities from this part of the field.
McKinnon will be a very popular waiver addition, but don't discount the impact that Asiata has had. In five career starts, he has averaged more than 80 yards per game from scrimmage and has produced seven touchdowns.
Forte's three carries from the 5-yard line or closer this past week were his first three of the season from that range. He didn't score and lost a total of 3 yards on those carries. It's still a bit too early to panic on Forte, but if he doesn't produce from close on his next few attempts, his role in that area could be re-evaluated. That being said, Forte is the biggest back in the Chicago backfield, so the change would likely be an increase in pass attempts in that area of the field, which would be good for Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett.
During the past two weeks, LeSean McCoy has rushed for 39 yards and has zero receptions on just two targets. Darren Sproles has 24 rushing yards and five receptions on seven targets. It seems unreasonable to expect those production levels to continue and it likely means that opportunities that have been going the way of Jeremy Maclin and Riley Cooper will work their way back to these two talented running backs.
Red zone play selection
Below is a list of all teams, sorted by the number of snaps they have had in the red zone. For the purposes of this analysis, pass plays are defined as all snaps that resulted in a pass attempt or sack, with all other snaps being classified as rushes.
Red Zone Breakdown, This Season
You might think that St. Louis' lack of attempts in the red zone is significantly affecting Zac Stacy, but it really isn't. Last year, he had 39 carries in the red zone. This year, he has six in three games, which puts him on pace for 32 for the season. He's receiving fewer opportunities, but not enough to explain his dramatic drop in production.
The New York Giants have 28 rushing attempts in the red zone this season. That is 17 more than the Oakland Raiders have total plays in this area. It doesn't make a difference who the Raiders' head coach is, there just isn't enough offensive talent in Oakland for anything trustworthy enough to be considered a fantasy starter.
With 27 rushing attempts in the red zone, the Baltimore Ravens have shown a strong commitment to the run when in close. That's great news for Lorenzo Taliaferro, who has emerged as the go-to-guy when closing in on a score.