NFL Vegas Ranks | Underdog value | NFL PickCenter | Eliminator picks
Another week into the season, and more than 35 percent of entries in ESPN Eliminator pools have been eliminated, as three of the six most-picked teams lost in Week 2. That includes the most-picked team, the New Orleans Saints. If you listened to us, though, you should still be alive, as two of our three recommendations came out on top.
Despite the Saints' 0-2 start -- ruining many pools -- they are a popular pick this week against the Minnesota Vikings (who won't have Adrian Peterson). The Saints own the No. 3 offense in the NFL, adding a point above expectation for every five plays. The injury to Mark Ingram could hurt dramatically, though. Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas will need to step up in Ingram's place.
Both of the Saints' losses were incredibly close. However, the games were that close only because of a porous defense. The Saints' defense is the inverse image of the team's offense, ranking third-to-last in efficiency. In particular, the D ranks third-to-last against the run, having allowed nearly 16 points more than a league-average defense.
Each week, we at numberFire.com will be here with our projective modeling to help you survive and advance in your Eliminator pool. Our job is to provide the best information possible to empower smarter decision-making.
We'll provide three different versions of picks for you to choose from.
Survival Guide
Need help making your Eliminator selections? Check out Insider's latest tool right here.
Sign up for ESPN's Eliminator Challenge.
First, we will provide the win-maximizing pick of the week. This is based on the probability of a team winning combined with the percentage of the ESPN.com Eliminator Challenge population selecting each game. To do this, we generate every possible combination of outcomes each week (65,000-plus) so you can maximize your potential gains. In addition, we will look forward to future matchups to let you know which teams to keep in reserve, and highlight the team most likely to win by our projections.
Keep in mind that we are dealing in probability and that upsets will happen.
To help you visualize, below is our Eliminator Pool threat matrix, which shows you how all 32 teams project each week based on our model. It will be updated for this column each Tuesday as results come in over the course of the season.
Here's a helpful guide to navigate the information:
Green: Our equity-maximizing pick of the week
Red: Popular pick: This is the consensus pick by you, the player
Brown: Max method: This finds the best matchup of the season and works backward to maximize total win percentage throughout the season