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Joe Lunardi, Senior Writer, ESPN.com 11h

NCAA Bracketology: 2025 March Madness men's field predictions

Men's Bracketology: 2024 NCAA Tournament

By Joe Lunardi Updated: 4/16/2024 at 9 a.m. ET

There is no longer an off-season in college basketball. With more than 1,500 Division I players changing teams, the majority of programs are dependent on the transfer portal to stock and re-stock their rosters each spring. The resulting tumult creates wide swings in projected performance for the following year, and we're here to track it for you with monthly bracket updates until opening night on November 4.

Bracket Watch

Top Overall Seed

Duke

First Team Out

Virginia

Last Team In

San Francisco

Barely a week has elapsed since UConn's dominant NCAA tournament performance led to a repeat national championship, but the unfettered movement of players from one school to another had already begun. And it will continue well past the May 1 deadline to enter this year's transfer portal, making a moving target of any serious attempt at Bracketology. Yet we begin our off-season projections with a familiar name at the top. Duke, led by generational recruit Cooper Flagg, starts our 2024-25 bracket cycle as the No. 1 overall seed. The Blue Devils' high-end returnees -- led by guards Jeremy Roach and Tyrese Proctor -- combine with Flagg and three other ESPN Top 100 freshmen to make Duke a fairly clear choice at this point. Also worth noting are a few updates to our off-season methodology. First, this projection includes all portal activity through close of business on April 15. Second, it excludes all players that are consensus NBA first- or early second-round picks as well as other underclassmen who have renounced their college eligibility. Finally, it assumes the return of the last class of COVID-year players unless announced otherwise. Remember this is a very early snapshot and we are a long, long way from November.

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

  • Pittsburgh

  • New Mexico

  • Seton Hall

  • South Carolina

Last Four In

  • Missouri

  • Clemson

  • Providence

  • San Francisco

First Four Out

  • Virginia

  • BYU

  • Ole Miss

  • LSU

Next Four Out

  • Georgia

  • Utah

  • Minnesota

  • TCU

68-Team Bracket

Moved Up

Moved Down

New Team to Bracket

Automatic Qualifier

  1. 16Norfolk St.
  2. 16C. Connecticut
  3. 11Texas Tech
  4. 11San Francisco
  1. 16Morehead St.
  2. 16Texas Southern
  3. 11Clemson
  4. 11Providence

EAST (NEWARK)

Raleigh
  1. 1 Duke - aq
  2. 16 Norfolk St. - aq/
    C. Connecticut - aq
  3. 8 Mississippi St.
  4. 9 Kansas St.
Cleveland
  1. 5 Michigan St.
  2. 12 McNeese - aq
  3. 4 Texas
  4. 13 High Point - aq
Providence
  1. 6 Ohio State
  2. 11 Memphis - aq
  3. 3 UConn - aq
  4. 14 Western Kentucky - aq
Denver
  1. 7 Nebraska
  2. 10 South Carolina
  3. 2 Baylor
  4. 15 Weber St. - aq

WEST (SAN FRANCISCO)

Wichita
  1. 1 Houston
  2. 16 South Dakota St. - aq
  3. 8 Maryland
  4. 9 N.C. State
Milwaukee
  1. 5 Tennessee
  2. 12 Bradley - aq
  3. 4 Creighton
  4. 13 Hofstra - aq
Denver
  1. 6 Cincinnati
  2. 11 Missouri
  3. 3 Arizona
  4. 14 Lipscomb - aq
Seattle
  1. 7 Wisconsin
  2. 10 New Mexico
  3. 2 Gonzaga - aq
  4. 15 Oakland - aq

MIDWEST (INDIANAPOLIS)

Wichita
  1. 1aq - Kansas
  2. 16aq - Toledo
  3. 8 Wake Forest
  4. 9 Texas A&M
Seattle
  1. 5 Rutgers
  2. 12aq - Grand Canyon
  3. 4 Saint Mary's
  4. 13aq - UC Irvine
Lexington
  1. 6 Illinois
  2. 11 Texas Tech
    San Francisco/
  3. 3 Auburn
  4. 14 Appalachian St.
Raleigh
  1. 7 Xavier
  2. 10 Seton Hall
  3. 2 North Carolina
  4. 15aq - Colgate

SOUTH (ATLANTA)

Lexington
  1. 1aq - Alabama
  2. 16aq - Morehead St.
    Texas Southern/
  3. 8 Indiana
  4. 9aq - Boise St.
Providence
  1. 5 Miami (Fla.)
  2. 12aq - Princeton
  3. 4 Marquette
  4. 13aq - Vermont
Cleveland
  1. 6 Florida
  2. 11 Clemson
    Providence/
  3. 3aq - Purdue
  4. 14aq - Samford
Milwaukee
  1. 7aq - Dayton
  2. 10 Pittsburgh
  3. 2 Iowa State
  4. 15aq - Quinnipiac

Conference Breakdown

Conference
Team
SEC
9
Big Ten
9
Big 12
8
ACC
7
Big East
6
WCC
3
Mountain West
2
All NCAAM Conferences

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, USA TODAY Sports, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

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RULES

ESPN's Bracketology efforts are focused on projecting the NCAA tournament field just as we expect the NCAA Division I basketball committee to select the field in March. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi uses the same data points favored by the committee, including strength of schedule and other season-long indicators, including the NET and team-sheet data similar to what is available to the NCAA, in his projections of the field. Visit the NCAA's website for a fuller understanding of NCAA selection criteria.

68-Team Bracket

The 68-team bracket is the standard version of the NCAA tournament field that has been in place since 2011. If the 2021 field is comprised of 68 teams, there will be some key differences to past years, however.

The primary adjustment from a normal year is, of course, the playing of the entire NCAA tournament at a single site. This eliminates the need for geographical considerations in seeding. Additionally, there will be at least one fewer automatic qualifier this season, as the Ivy League's decision to forgo the 2020-21 season reduces the number of AQ entries to 31 for this season.

48-Team Bracket

In this projection, a condensed selection process would reduce the field by 10 at-large teams and 10 automatic qualifiers (the latter of which still receive a revenue unit). The top four seeds in each region would receive a bye into the second round, with four first-round games per region - 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 - being played without fans on the higher seed's home court.

To minimize travel, first-round pairings will be guided by geography to the greatest extent possible. And the reduced field results in only 32 teams competing at the central site. All participants must post a minimum .500 conference record - the "Lunardi Rule" - for at-large consideration.

16-Team Bracket

In this projection, the committee selects and seeds the 16 best available teams. There are no automatic qualifiers, although all non-competing conference champions receive the designated revenue unit.

To maintain some sense of national balance, conference participation is capped at four teams. And no region shall have more than one team from the same conference.
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