Back in 2010, as LeBron James readied to shake the basketball world with Decision 1.0, Kevin Durant had already made and announced his via a simple typo'd tweet.
Durant was cast as a protagonist for the digital age, a star displaying the "right way" to announce a career choice, while James found himself somewhere between He Who Must Not Be Named and King Joffrey on the likability scale.
It was inevitable to compare and contrast. James left; Durant stayed. James took his talents somewhere on television; Durant stayed put in 140 characters or less. There was a certain charm to the misspelling -- "extension" as "exstension" -- that illustrated how little premeditation Durant had seemed to invest, while James had everything meticulously orchestrated for his one-hour special.
What was lost, though, is that Durant actually made the same choice James did some four years earlier. Durant was coming off his rookie scale deal and did what virtually every player in his position does: take a maximum extension. Nobody turns down that money at that time.
Still, there was one big difference between the two extensions. James signed his in 2006 for three years, a strategic financial move that would make him a free agent after seven seasons, which allowed him to get a max at 30 percent rather than 25. Durant, on the other hand, specifically requested there be no early opt-out. This locked him in for the full five years.
Yet even with the gesture -- and all of the nice things he has said about the team and Oklahoma City -- as soon as Durant hit "send" on that tweet, the clock started ticking toward his next decision, the actual decision, the one he makes in 2016 as an unrestricted free agent.
James spent his first seven seasons in Cleveland, falling short of a championship seven times. Durant will spend his first nine seasons with the Thunder franchise and thus far has failed seven times to reach the ultimate goal. Should the Thunder fall short the next two seasons, the assumption is Durant will depart as James did, even if the optics are different.
But there's something for Durant to learn from Decision 2.0. James' choice was painted primarily as a homecoming story, the prodigal son returning to right his wrongs. All true, no doubt. Except there's another, more practical reason he picked Cleveland: sustainability.
In some ways, his departure is what put the Cavaliers in the position to bring him back, meaning they got so bad that they piled up young talent and assets. When James turns 34, Kyrie Irving, the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2011, will be 26. Andrew Wiggins, the 2014 No. 1 overall draft pick, will be just 23. The Cavs provide an opportunity for James to chase a championship for his hometown, and do it over and over again for the next decade. In a lot of ways, James found his Thunder.
Oklahoma City's buzzword from day one has been sustainability, and for the past four years, it has sustained one hell of a run. A winning percentage near .750, three trips to the Western Conference finals, and one to the Finals. In James' final four seasons in Cleveland, the Cavs won 68 percent of their games, made two conference finals appearances, and one in the NBA Finals. For both, there is a common, painful denominator: no championship.
For Durant, when the time comes to make his choice in 2016, it's not going to be about if he won a championship. It's about where he can win his next championship. We can't be entirely sure that had the Cavs won a title with James before 2010 that he would've stayed. We can assume, but we can't know.
That roster, with Antawn Jamison and Mo Williams and Delonte West and Shaquille O'Neal, wasn't built to contend for a decade. It was built to try to appease James on a year-by-year basis. Durant will be 27 when he signs his next contract somewhere, and that decision will be informed by the future, not the past.
Teams are already clearing space to have their pitch lined up for Durant. The Knicks have about $30 million in committed salary for 2016-17, the Nets $6.3 million. The Wizards owe $34.8 million, enough room to fit a max for Durant. The Lakers don’t have a single penny committed. The Thunder have $30.1 million committed, but that’s also their advantage -- because it’s for Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka.
The likely market for 2016 doesn’t include a Chris Bosh or Dwyane Wade out there for Durant to team with. Unless Durant wants to play with James, or Kevin Love exercises his player option, the best available free agents in summer 2016 are Dwight Howard (who will be 30), Deron Williams (who will be 32) and Al Horford (who will be 30).
Westbrook will be just 27; Ibaka will be 26.
There is the fact Durant plays in one of the league’s smallest markets and the financial realities that come with that. The Thunder have actively resisted dipping into the luxury tax, which reaffirms the perception that ownership is cheap and unwilling to spend for a contender (this is where you bring up the James Harden trade).
The reality is the team is planning for the future, avoiding years of the luxury tax that would place them as repeat offenders in 2016 and 2017, when they have to re-sign their core. Over-extending for the present is dangerous, and as the Thunder have harshly been forced to learn the past two postseasons with injuries to key players, there are no guarantees. “Going for it” can often only complicate your future.
Maybe Durant will be drawn back home like James, or maybe he'll want the big lights and big pressure of bringing a championship to New York. But what he'll really want is the best possible chance to win. And as long as the Thunder can provide that better than anyone else, his next decision will be just as simple as his first.