We will hear a lot between now and the draft about the potential for Eagles coach Chip Kelly, who now has power over personnel in Philadelphia, to make a move to reunite with Marcus Mariota.
Kelly coached Mariota, the Heisman Trophy winner, at Oregon.
The Eagles have an uncertain quarterback situations after Nick Foles drop-off in 2014 prior to his season-ending injury. Mark Sanchez replaced Foles, had mixed results and has an expiring contract.
Mark Eckel of NJ.com has a source who told him the Eagles will try to move up to get Mariota, though they know it will be difficult.
Could this mean Philadelphia is a trade partner for the Titans?
The cost of jumping from the Eagles' spot at 20 to the Titans' spot at 2 could make it impossible. Eckel’s report acknowledges it would probably take two trades to get in range for Mariota.
If Tampa Bay doesn't take Mariota first overall and the Eagles wanted to move to No. 2 to select him, it would take a monster deal.
In 2012, Washington gave up the fifth pick in the draft, the 33rd pick in the draft, a 2013 first-round pick and a 2014 first-round pick to get the second pick from the Rams.
That was for a three-spot drop in the first round and a player, Robert Griffin III, generally regarded by the league as a can’t-miss talent.
Mariota won’t likely have as much pull/value.
But considering the haul the Rams collected for a small first-round drop, the Titans expectation for a move from 2 to 20 would be gigantic.
The old-school draft value chart (often called the Jimmy Johnson chart) should be getting deemphasized a bit in favor of new analytical charts like this one from Chase Stuart of Football Perspective.
“Teams generally stick to the Jimmy Johnson chart at the top of the draft, although that can change in years where the top picks aren't considered to be as valuable,” Stuart told me. “Remember, a No. 2 pick could be RG3 [trade everything!]or Luke Joeckel [trade nothing!].”
The entire draft order is not out, though the Titans should have 2, 33 in the second round and 66 in the third while the Eagles should have 20, 52 in the second and 84 in the third. From there picks will be influenced by compensatory picks that get splashed into the end of the remaining rounds.
I used the compensatory projections of Over The Cap to flesh out the full 256 picks.
By my estimate -- emphasis on estimate -- the Titans will have roughly 3,607 points on the Jimmy Johnson chart and the Eagles just 1,503.
Philadelphia’s entire draft would come up 1,097 points short of the value of the No. 2 pick (2,600) and no one in the NFL circa 2014 is giving away an entire draft plus in exchange for one player.
The package the Eagles would have to put together to get the Titans pick would be enormous, with implications into 2016 and probably 2017. It’s hard to imagine Kelly, no matter the degree of his affection for Mariota, would or could make the move if the quarterback is available second on April 30.
In the fantasy world where it happens, the Titans could obviously make such a deal and then trade back up to still get an impact guy closer to the top of the draft.
A trade from 1978 is hardly going to function as a model. But here is what the Oilers did to move from No. 17 to No. 1 back then to get Earl Campbell.
As we move forward, here are two good resources from Football Perspective for examining draft pick trades: