TAMPA, Fla. -- Mel Kiper Jr.'s first Insider mock draft is out and it has a bit of a surprise for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at No. 1.

Kiper has the Bucs taking Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston. That's not shocking because conventional wisdom is that the Bucs will take a quarterback. But most people, including ESPN's other draft guru Todd McShay, have the Bucs targeting Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota.

Kiper might be onto something here. Although Mariota might have the higher upside, Winston might be the wiser pick. That's because Winston has played in a pro-style offense. Mariota has spent his career in a spread offense.

I don't see Tampa Bay coach Lovie Smith suddenly switching to a spread scheme and it might take Mariota a lot of time to adjust to a pro-style offense. Time is something Smith -- and any other NFL coach -- doesn't have a lot of. Smith already has had a 2-14 season. He needs to show improvement and he needs to show it quickly.

Winston has had some possible red flags off the field. But if the Bucs do their homework and conclude those issues are not a problem, Winston could be the choice because he's more pro ready than Mariota.

For Kiper's complete analysis of the Buccaneers' pick and the entire first round, click here.