David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior Writer 9y

Path to the playoffs: NL West

The National League West had the worst out-of-division record in the majors in 2014 -- its teams were 32 games under .500 -- but the Giants won the World Series. So it was certainly baseball's best worst division. Or something.

Attempting to match the Giants' postseason success, the Dodgers, Padres, Rockies and Diamondbacks all hired new general managers, and three of those clubs have had busy and exciting offseasons. What will it all mean for their postseason hopes? The Dodgers and Giants still rate as division favorites, but the Padres are certainly making things interesting.

A look at each NL West team's path to the playoffs ...

Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers

2014: 94-68, plus-101 run differential, lost in NLDS

2015 projection from FanGraphs: 88-74, plus-61

That plus-61 projection is the highest in the majors, although it does not factor in the Jimmy Rollins trade or any contribution from $10 million lottery ticket Brett Anderson.

Sure, there is some fear the Dodgers will have trouble replacing the offensive production of Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez, but the Dodgers' path to the playoffs still looks pretty clear:

• Clayton Kershaw does more Clayton Kershaw kinds of things.

• Zack Greinke goes 17-8 with a 2.71 ERA again.

• Hyun-Jin Ryu continue to be one of the more underrated starters in the game.

• Anderson and Brandon McCarthy show that the new Andrew Friedman-led front office is smart and has super-cool analysis and metrics that justify their signings.

• Yasiel Puig re-discovers the power stroke that he lost in the second half of 2014. Even then, let's remember that Puig had the fifth-best wOBA in the NL this past season. He still has MVP potential.

• Joc Pederson hits 20 home runs, steals 20 bases and anchors a much-improved outfield defense. (Steamer projects him to hit 19 home runs and steal 22 bases, although with a .230/.322/.388 line.)

• Bullpens are volatile. This year's pen will be much better.

• The team's clubhouse chemistry is improved without Kemp and Ramirez, which maybe can't be quantified but could mean something.

• Did we mention that the Rockies and Diamondbacks are in this division?

Giants

San Francisco Giants

2014: 88-74, plus-51 run differential, won World Series

2015 projection: 83-79, plus-17

Sneak into the wild-card game, ride Madison Bumgarner, take the World Series all while winning fewer than 90 games overall! Every general manager's perfect plan.

Congrats, Giants fans; a title is a title, no matter how you got there. But keep in mind that 88 wins may not get you into the playoffs in 2015.

How do the Giants stay the course or get better? Obviously, they have a gaping hole at third base and the suggestion that Joe Panik could move there from second is a little silly until you realize that it could actually happen, considering the lack of good third-base options out there.

Anyway, the path to the playoffs has to come through an improved starting rotation (the projection above doesn't include Jake Peavy, who reportedly agreed to a two-year contract on Thursday). To a large extent, the view of the Giants' pitching staff is still colored by the great 2010 rotation and a dominant run through the 2012 postseason. But FanGraphs ranked the Giants' 2014 rotation 28th in the majors, with 8.2 WAR. That's not as surprising as it looks once you consider the Giants were 10th in the NL in rotation ERA while playing in a pitcher's park.

Can they still count on Matt Cain and/or Tim Lincecum? Was Peavy's 2.17 ERA with the Giants the second half of last season a fluke or a product of returning to the National League? What will Tim Hudson have left in the tank during his age-39 season? Does Yusmeiro Petit move into the rotation full time? And does Bumgarner take his regular-season game to a new level?

The best prognosis for the Giants is that Bumgarner does raise his performance, Cain bounces back after elbow surgery, Hudson delivers another solid campaign, Peavy is a dependable No. 4 and Lincecum soaks up innings and isn't ... awful. And if he is, Petit is still around as valuable swingman. Yes, they could still sign James Shields, but it's probably wise if they pass on him and save their money for next year's crop of premium free-agent starters -- David Price, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister -- when Lincecum's $18 million comes off the books.

Aside from that, the offense should once again be one of the best in the league -- if underrated, thanks to AT&T Park's run-supressing environment. Keep in mind that Brandon Belt, Angel Pagan and Panik averaged just 77 games in the majors in 2014. If each can play 130-140 games, the offense will benefit.

Plus ... the Giants were 9-10 against the Padres and Rockies. Beat them a few more times and they can win 90.

Padres

San Diego Padres

2014: 77-85, minus-42 run differential

2015 projection: 77-85, minus-36 runs

It's easy to forget the Padres won 77 games -- only 11 wins fewer than the Giants.

And they just picked up Matt Kemp, Wil Myers and Justin Upton without trading any of their key components from 2014. What's the best-case scenario for San Diego? Let's start here: Padres outfielders hit a combined .234/.307/.347 in 2014; only the Mariners and Reds had a worse wOBA from its outfield. Padres outfielders created about 188 runs, or about 63 runs per position. Now they have a completely new outfield (although it's possible Myers will play first base).

OK, Kemp created about 88 runs this past season in 599 plate appearances, a total that includes a poor first half and a great second half. He created about 136 runs in his near-MVP season in 2011. We're being optimistic here, but 136 is probably too optimistic considering everything -- the injuries, the arthritis in both of his hips, moving to Petco -- working against him. But let's say he produces 95 runs, that the second half of last season was the real Matt Kemp, and that he's going to have a little anger in his game in 2015.

Myers wasn't good in 2014, so let's ignore that. As a rookie in 2013, he created about 55 runs in 88 games, or 94 runs in 150 games. Maybe he was over his head that year; he had a very high .360 BABIP that he may not be able to replicate. And he's moving to Petco. But he has talent; maybe the BABIP goes down but the power and walk rate go up. Let's give him 95 runs created as well. This is very rough math here. But you can see the improvement. We're going from 63 runs from the outfield positions to 95.

And now Upton comes over from the Braves. New general manager A.J. Preller has made an unprecedented series of big moves. He's also apparently kept his top three prospects in doing so -- catcher Austin Hedges, outfielder Hunter Renfroe and pitcher Matt Wisler. Upton created -- I didn't do this on purpose -- 95 runs in 154 games in 2014.

So we've added about 95 runs to the outfield. That's about 10 wins of new offense. (The projections above include Kemp and new catcher Derek Norris, but not Myers and Upton until those deals are official.)

Now, defense could be an issue. You don't really want to play Kemp or Myers in center field. Kemp's overall projected WAR is just 1.8. Myers' is 2.4. It's possible these don't turn out to be big upgrades at all. But we'll see. The Padres have power now and they're going to be exciting. Plus, Jedd Gyorko could/should/will bounce back. The Padres could have four 25-homer guys. Their top guy hit 15 in 2014.

Add in full seasons from Andrew Cashner and Odrisamer Despaigne (who combined for about one full season between them) and the rotation looks a little deeper alongside Tyson Ross and Ian Kennedy. The Padres are going to give another shot to Josh Johnson. It didn't work out this past season; maybe it does in 2015. Even 20 starts would be a boost. Brandon Morrow is another lottery ticket. Bullpen? The bullpen had the best ERA in the National League.

And Preller may not be done. Maybe he finds an upgrade at shortstop or third base. The Padres have gone from sleeper -- as in, they've put us to sleep for years -- to playoff sleeper.

Rockies

Colorado Rockies

2014: 66-96, minus-63 run differential

2015 projection: 78-84, minus-27

The Rockies have had four straight losing seasons, and they've topped out at just 74 wins in that span. In this era of parity, they have become perhaps the most discombobulated franchise in the majors. The Astros have had a worse record, but at least their rebuilding game plan was clear. Even the Phillies have finally admitted defeat and began a restructuring of their roster.

The Rockies? What are they doing? What's the plan? New general manager Jeff Bridich replaced longtime GM Dan O'Dowd in early October but has been quiet this offseason. Well, he signed Daniel Descalso to a two-year contract. As always, the fate of the Rockies seems to revolve around the health of Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez and the starting rotation. Tulo and CarGo combined for just 161 games in 2014; Tulowitzki was great when he played but Gonzalez was awful. Only Jorge De La Rosa made more than 22 starts.

But ... Tulo and CarGo played 236 games in 2013 and both were great. And three starters made 30 starts, but the team was still terrible. So it's not really as simple as just keeping those two guys healthy and productive. It is a starting point.

Note that the Rockies aren't horrible in the projection. They're not expected to lose 100 games or anything. Some other ideas to help the Rockies get back to being competitive:

1. They have to hit better on the road. Familiar story here. Nolan Arenado hit just two of his 18 home runs away from Coors Field. Charlie Blackmon hit .241 with a .269 OBP. CarGo hit .160. The Rockies hit .322 at home, .228 on the road. Arenado could be a key here. He now has two years in the majors and has shown excellent contact ability (although he hasn't drawn many walks). He needs to translate that into a higher average, more power and a few more walks.

2. The young pitchers continue to emerge. Jordan Lyles (4.33 ERA in 22 starts) and Tyler Matzek (4.05 ERA in 19 starts) showed promise in 2014. Those are decent ERAs for guys who pitch primarily in Coors Field. Matzek actually had an ERA under 4.00 at home, so he has shown he can survive there.

3. Eddie Butler and Jonathan Gray make a second-half splash. Regarded as two of the top pitching prospects in the minors entering 2014, neither had an impact season, so they need to get back on track.

4. Play Corey Dickerson more. He got just 478 PAs in 2014 as the Rockies used him as a platoon player. He hit .312/.364/.567 and wasn't awful versus lefties.

5. Get 30-plus starters from De La Rosa, Lyles, Matzek and Jhoulys Chacin.

The projection above includes 595 PAs from Tulowitzki and 490 from Gonzalez, so it's fairly optimistic about their playing time. This may be the final go for the Tulo/CarGo era. There are also rumors about a potential trade to the Mets -- although ESPNNewYork's Adam Rubin said there's less than 5 percent chance of that happening.

Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks

2014: 64-98, minus-127 run differential

2015 projection: 75-87, minus-57

I'm actually surprised that Arizona's projection is 75 wins -- and that doesn't even include Yasmany Tomas. He's unlikely to go all Jose Abreu on us, but maybe he's a 25-homer guy who would go nicely along with sluggers Paul Goldschmidt and Mark Trumbo. Everybody says they can't find right-handed power these day, but the Diamondbacks have it.

The weakness appears to be the starting rotation, which Steamer projects as the 27th-best at just a combined 6.7 WAR. But it's a volatile rotation to project. Steamer doesn't factor Rubby de la Rosa, Allen Webster, Robbie Ray or Archie Bradley to pitch more than 30 innings. Maybe one or two will break through. Maybe Patrick Corbin returns in the second half. Maybe Jeremy Hellickson goes to the NL and has a 3.15 ERA instead of his projected 4.15 ERA. The Diamondbacks need some of those things to happen.

Then you go to the power guys. Goldschmidt was an MVP runner-up two years ago. Trumbo had kind of a lost season but could swat 35 homers; he hit 34 in Anaheim two years ago. And maybe Tomas is a beast.

The Diamondbacks also don't really have a catcher right now (sorry, Tuffy Gosewisch), so maybe they make a deal there. The middle infield combo of Chris Owings and Aaron Hill could certainly outperform their projected WAR total of 1.9.

For the most part, it's a young team. Young players can surprise. You never know.

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