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Half-full, half-empty: Andrew Miller

We continue our half-full, half-empty series on free agents with a look at Andrew Miller. He might actually be the most-sought-after free agent this offseason because every team would like to add a hard-throwing lefty reliever who held opponents to a .153 average in 2014. Not every team can afford Max Scherzer or Jon Lester, but every team could conceivably afford Miller. Reports last week indicated that at least 22 clubs had contacted Miller's agent.

Jim Bowden predicted a three-year, $25.5 million deal for Miller, but with so many teams interested, I could see the average annual salary being closer to $9 million or maybe the length getting extended to four years. No matter what, Miller will have his pick from several suitors.

HALF-FULL

Nobody has ever doubted Miller's arm. The Tigers drafted him sixth overall out of the University of North Carolina in 2006, and he was regarded by many as the best talent in that draft, falling only because of his bonus demands. The Tigers rushed him to the majors, where he struggled in 2007; then he was traded to the Marlins as part of the Miguel Cabrera deal.

Miller finally put everything together in 2014, a season split between the Red Sox and Orioles. Mixing his mid-90s fastball (average velocity: 93.8 mph) with his sweeping slider, Miller struck out 102 batters in 62.1 innings, giving him an opponents' batting line that resembled a more-heralded lefty reliever's:

Miller: .153/.229/.227

Aroldis Chapman: .121/.234/.172

OK, maybe not quite Chapman; but if you live on the same planet as Chapman, that's impressive. Miller's strikeout percentage was second among all relievers in 2014.

The key for Miller was throwing more strikes. In 2012 and 2013 with the Red Sox, he was used mostly as a LOOGY -- he appeared in 90 games but pitched just 71 innings (he missed the second half of 2013 with a foot injury as well) -- as his walk rates remained high. In 2014, however, he was more effective spotting his fastball against right-handed batters:

That allowed him to set up his deadly slider, and he held righties to a .145 average with just one home run in 144 plate appearances. As you saw in the playoffs with the Orioles, this ability to dominate hitters from both sides of the plate means he can be used as a multiple-inning weapon in the postseason, making him even more attractive to a playoff team.

Miller doesn't have a lot of wear and tear on his arm, so a three- or four-year contract should lock up his prime years. For those who don't think teams should spend big money on a bullpen, just look at your 2014 World Series winners. The Giants had a veteran bullpen with Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez all making at least $4 million. The days of relying solely on a bargain-basement-priced bullpen might be over.

HALF-EMPTY

Entering 2014, Miller had a career ERA of 5.33 ERA. Do you want to make him one of the game's highest-paid relievers -- including closers -- on the basis of one great season?

Miller always had trouble throwing strikes, but he cut his walk rate from 4.7 per nine innings in 2012 and '13 to 2.5 in 2014. So he's turned the corner? I wouldn't be so sure. In 2012-13, 61.9 percent of the pitches he threw were strikes; in 2014, that number was 65 percent. But ESPN Stats & Information actually has him throwing almost the exact same percentage of pitches in the strike zone -- 50.8 percent in 2014 compared to 51 percent in 2012-13.

As mentioned above, Miller did throw more fastballs in the zone -- 55 percent in 2014 compared to 51.3 percent the previous two seasons -- which allowed him to get ahead in the count more and throw the slider. But it's a fine line here. Miller threw 565 fastballs in 2014; the difference between 55 percent and 51.3 percent is 21 pitches out of 565.

If those 21 pitches are balls in 2015, it's likely Miller regresses to being a good-but-not-great reliever, and that $8-9 million per season will look like an overpay.

What do you think? Half-full or half-empty?