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Giancarlo Stanton has never hit 40 home runs, never hit .300, never posted a .400 on-base percentage. He's ranked as one of the 10 best players in the National League just once in his career. Yet he could become baseball's first $300 million player. And he may be worth it. The big difference between Stanton and the players who have signed baseball's biggest contracts is age: Stanton will play the 2015 season at age 25. So the reports that Stanton and the Miami Marlins are discussing a 10-year, $300 million contract or a 12-year, $320 million deal takes him through what should be his peak seasons -- but not too far beyond. A 10-year deal would take him through age 34, a 12-year deal through age 36. Compare that to these other $200 million-plus contracts: Alex Rodriguez: 10 years, $275 million (2008-2017)
Ages: 32-41
Annual average value: $27.5 million Hey, A-Rod did help the Yankees win the World Series in 2009! Rodriguez signed this deal after winning MVP honors in 2007 when he hit 54 home runs and drove in 156 runs. Since then, he's hit .279/.369/.498 while averaging 23 home runs and 78 RBIs per season, not including his 2014 suspension. Enjoy the next three years, Yankees fans. Miguel Cabrera: 8 years, $248 million (2016-2023)
Ages: 33-40
AAV: $31 million Cabrera's extension doesn't kick in until 2016 and runs through his age-40 season, with team options for 2024 and 2025 that are guaranteed with a top-10 finish in the 2023 MVP vote. When he'll be 40. After hitting 44 home runs in 2012 and 2013, he dropped to 25 in 2014. Whether it was because of the surgery he had after the 2013 season or the beginning of his decline, we'll have to see. Robinson Cano: 10 years, $240 million (2014-2023)
Ages: 31-40
AAV: $24 million The first year produced positive returns for the Mariners, although Cano managed just 14 home runs. A big positive for Cano has been his health -- he's averaged 160 games per season since 2007. But A-Rod had averaged 159 games per season from ages 25 to 31, so there's no guarantee that Cano will continue his Cal Ripken-like durability. Albert Pujols: 10 years, $240 million (2012-2021)
Ages: 32-41
AAV: $24 million Pujols' annual WAR since 2009: 9.7, 7.5, 5.3, 4.8 (first year with Angels), 1.9 (injured), 3.9. He'll be making $30 million in 2021. Joey Votto: 10 years, $225 million (2014-2023)
Ages: 30-39
AAV: $22.5 million Votto signed his extension in April of 2012. In the previous three seasons, he hit .318/.418/.565 while averaging 30 home runs and 100 RBIs; from 2012 to 2014, he's hit .306/.439/.500 while averaging 15 home runs and 51 RBIs as he missed significant time in 2012 and 2014. After playing just 62 games in 2014 due to a quad injury and hitting .255, Votto has a lot to prove in 2015 ... and beyond, considering there are still nine years left on this deal. Prince Fielder: 9 years, $214 million (2012-2020)
Ages: 28-36
AAV: $23.8 million Fielder was a little younger than these guys when he signed, but after two years the Tigers happily traded him to the Rangers, throwing in $30 million in cash, as well. Fielder promptly went on the DL for the first time in his career and played just 42 games after surgery to repair a herniated disk in his neck. (There have been two other $200 million contracts: Rodriguez originally signed with the Rangers in 2001 for 10 years and $252 million and then opted out after seven years; Clayton Kershaw's deal with the Dodgers last offseason is for seven years and $215 million.) * * * * The interesting thing about the six deals above is that four of them went to players on the left end of the defensive spectrum -- with Cabrera's move to first base, four of the six players signed to these $200 million deals are now first basemen. To retain value at that position you have to hit and hit big, and in the cases of Cabrera, Pujols and Votto, continue to do so into your late 30s. Cano obviously has more value as a second baseman but if his range diminishes to unacceptable levels, at least he can move to third base or first. Bad first basemen can only become DHs. In Stanton's case, he brings two major positives on why a $300 million deal may work out for the Marlins: We mentioned his age; but he's also a good defensive right fielder. Even though he's a beast of a human, Stanton moves pretty well out there and has a good arm. His defensive metrics have always been solid: plus-7 defensive runs saved in 2014 (that's seven runs better than an average right fielder) and plus-26 for his career; Ultimate Zone Rating has him at plus-15 in his career. So he's a solid defender, at least right now. The day will come when he becomes a defensive liability but that may not come until the final couple of years in the deal. Even if that's the case, he can move to first base where his bat will still play. There is one big risk here for the Marlins: Stanton had knee surgery in 2012 and missed time in both 2012 and 2013. While he was healthy in 2014 (until the late-season injury when he was hit in the face with a pitch), there's the chance that his knees force a move to first base earlier than otherwise anticipated. That hurts his value, let alone if it leads to DL stints or other missed time. Still, if a deal is reached, Stanton is a good bet to earn the mammoth salaries he'll be receiving. Buster Olney writes why the injury risk means it will be difficult for Stanton to turn down such a deal. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs explains why Stanton may actually be worth more than $300 million.
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