Ken Woolums, ESPN Stats & Information 8y

Signs suggest Jake Arrieta could get first win this month

Over his past two starts, Jake Arrieta has been better than he was in a recent stretch that brought his skill level back into question. Through seven innings in his start July 19 and 5 2/3 innings in his most recent start, he allowed two runs and struck out 14 hitters.

Unfortunately for Arrieta, Todd Frazier hit a three-run home run before he could get the last out of the sixth inning, leaving the Chicago Cubs ace with four runs over six innings.

What has worked better lately?

His fastball command is better.

In his past two starts, Arrieta has limited opponents to 6-for-28 (.214 batting average) in at-bats ending with his fastball. Perhaps more importantly, Arrieta is throwing the pitch for a strike more often.

In his past four starts, he is throwing his fastball for a strike 69 percent of the time, up from 62 percent in five starts prior.

His curveball has been more effective.

In his last start of the first half of the season, Arrieta allowed three hits against his curveball, the only start this season in which Arrieta has allowed multiple hits against the pitch.

Over Arrieta’s past two starts, opposing hitters are 1-for-9 with three strikeouts in at-bats ending with the pitch, and he has not allowed a hard-hit ball in those at-bats.

In those starts, he threw his curveball for a strike 71 percent of the time, up from 57 percent in his 18 first-half starts.

Ball four is becoming less common.

Arrieta has not walked more than two batters in any of his past four starts. In July, his walk rate is 6 percent, compared with the 12 percent in his five June starts.

Even with his struggles on the mound in the past two months, Arrieta is sixth among qualified starters with a .198 batting average against.

What can we expect Saturday?

The Seattle Mariners rank eighth in the majors with a .764 OPS. They rank second in the majors in home run percentage.

In Arrieta’s past five starts, the bulk of the damage done against him has come via home runs. He has allowed five home runs in that span, including the three-run homer by Frazier that put the Cubs in a 4-0 hole Monday night.

With his command and control both showing improvement, Arrieta is trending the right way to avoid major damage against the Mariners.

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