The NBA’s annual draft lottery will take place at 8:30 p.m. ET Tuesday on ESPN, with the likely top two prizes being Karl-Anthony Towns of Kentucky and Jahlil Okafor from Duke.
The Minnesota Timberwolves, who finished with the worst record in the NBA, have a 25 percent chance of winning the draft lottery, the best chance among the 14 teams that did not make this year’s playoffs. But the Timberwolves are more likely to get the fourth pick (35.7 percent chance) than they are to get the No. 1 pick.
Since the lottery adopted its present format in 1994, the team with (or tied for) the best odds has won three of the 21 lotteries: the Philadelphia 76ers in 1996 (selected Allen Iverson), the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2003 (selected LeBron James) and the Orlando Magic in 2004 (picked Dwight Howard).
The New York Knicks – who won the inaugural draft lottery in 1985 – have the second-best odds (19.9 percent) to get the first pick after they finished with the league’s second-worst record. The Knicks have a 44.2 percent probability of getting the fourth or fifth pick.
The Philadelphia 76ers, whose rebuilding strategy has been the source of abundant scrutiny, had the third-worst record and have a 15.6 percent chance of getting the top pick. But there is a 52 percent chance the 76ers’ pick will fall out of the top three.
The Los Angeles Lakers have an 11.9 percent chance of getting the top pick. If their pick is not in the top five, it will be sent to the 76ers, and there is a 17.2 percent chance of that happening.
The history
Which team historically has received the No. 1 pick the most often?
Dating to 1994, the first year of the current format, that distinction belongs to the teams with the third-best and fifth-best odds. This season, those teams are the 76ers and Magic, respectively. Coincidentally, of the 14 teams in the lottery, the Magic have made the most No. 1 overall picks (three). Their chance of winning this one is 9 percent.
Since the lottery began in 1985, every team has had at least one lottery pick. The San Antonio Spurs have the longest drought, having not selected in the lottery since they took Tim Duncan No. 1 in 1997.
Team-by-team
Here’s a team-by-team look at what’s noteworthy from their perspective (teams listed in alphabetical order).
Heat: If this pick is not in the top 10, it will be sent to Philadelphia. If they keep the pick, the Heat will be making their eighth lottery pick in franchise history, their first since they selected Michael Beasley No. 2 in 2008.
Hornets: This is the fifth year in a row Charlotte has a lottery pick. Twelve of the team's last 14 first-round picks have been underclassmen.
Jazz: The Utah Jazz will be making their ninth lottery pick all-time, including their sixth in the last six years (they did not have a lottery pick in 2012 but did have two lottery selections in 2011).
Kings: The Sacramento Kings are making their 20th lottery selection, tied with Golden State for the second-most all-time (the Clippers have made 22 lottery picks). This is the ninth straight year the Kings are selecting in the lottery, the longest active streak in the NBA.
Knicks: This will be the Knicks' eighth lottery pick all-time and their first since 2009, when they selected Jordan Hill at No. 8. In addition, this is the Knicks' third first-round pick since 2010. Only the Lakers, with one first-round pick from 2010 to 2014, has had fewer first-round selections.
Lakers: If the Lakers keep the pick, it will be their fourth lottery pick all-time, their second in the last two years (they selected Julius Randle No. 7 in 2014).
Magic: The Orlando Magic will be making their 16th lottery pick all-time. Of the last 22 draft picks, 17 have been either seniors (11) or international players (six).
Nuggets: This will be the 11th lottery pick for the Denver Nuggets. Last year, Denver picked Doug McDermott at No. 11.
Pacers: The Indiana Pacers will make its first lottery pick since 2010, when Paul George was selected No. 10. This is the 10th lottery pick in team history.
Pistons: This will be the Detroit Pistons' fifth lottery pick in the last six years. The Pistons have not picked an international player since Jonas Jerebko in 2009 (No. 39); Detroit has made 13 picks since then.
76ers: If the 76ers obtain the Lakers' and the Heat's picks, they will be the first team with three lottery selections. If they keep only their pick, it will be the 16th lottery pick in team history.
Suns: The Phoenix Suns will make a lottery pick for the fifth year in a row. Entering this year, seven of their last nine draft picks have been made in the first round.
Thunder: This will be the 14th lottery pick all-time in Thunder history (including years the franchise was in Seattle), but the second since the team moved to Oklahoma City in 2009.
Timberwolves: The Timberwolves have the best chance to win the lottery (25 percent). Minnesota is making a lottery pick for the 19th time, fourth-most among all teams.